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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (9821)	12/21/1998 6:10:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

So you think the majority of those people bought because of the cardmaker? No. It is my opinion that CompUSA, Circuit City, and other major retailers put those cards on the shelves because (a) they had on going relationships with Creative and Diamond and due to past history they trusted them. Trust here means that they knew if they advertise the cards, they will not be overly supply limited. Or that the cards will not turn out to be an absolute disaster for the customers and the customers will not line up in return lines. And that if they do return the cards, Diamond will take care of it promptly. In addition, the cards made it into so many shops, to some extent on the back of card makers' marketing, and to a greater extent due to their (all of them combined and not just the big ones) distribution and logistics ability. I can go on with more examples, but I think my point should be clear. Now you could say that the boards were just reference boards and there is no QA issue here. Fine. I believe you. The question is, are the major stores going to be so trusting. Also, what about the distribution channels? Just to manage all the accounts that 3Dfx will have to have to achieve its current presence is a big job in itself, even if all the current customers trust 3Dfx to deliver the goods (which is a big if). My past experience tells me that nothing in business is easy. And that any time a major change in one aspect of the business ocures, it takes at least a year and often more (and sometimes never) for things to move smoothly again. Hell, when I was a teenager and my mom would "tidy" my room up, it would take me at least a couple of months to be as at home again as I was before the change. 3Dfx's change is as dramatic a shift as I can think of. I wish 3Dfx all the best. If they do well, I will stand to make a ton of money. But I am not willing to triple management's guidence just because adding up the past numbers may indicate so. Sun Tzu