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To: SargeK who wrote (33251)	12/21/1998 9:52:00 AM
From: DYW	Respond to of 95453

It's snowing in SF and oil continues to drop. FLC is at a new low. When do the good times start?

To: SargeK who wrote (33251)	12/21/1998 10:00:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

I am not sure OSX will rebound as fast as you postulate, but do agree that the turn is very near. We probably will trough this week.

To: SargeK who wrote (33251)	12/21/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Sure it is... ________________ OIL PRICES. The end of the military action against Iraq without any effect on Iraq's oil infrastructure has oil prices back in a downtrend. Brent oil is down below $10 a barrel to $9.85. This is a far cry from the $30 per barrel days of the late 1970's oil crisis. Lower oil prices have a generally positive impact on stocks because of lower inflation and thus lower interest rates. However, for oil companies and oil services companies, lower oil prices means a difficult environment. The continuing fall in oil prices makes those $15 to $18 per barrel forecasts by Wall Street for 1999 look increasingly questionable. It also raises serious questions about the earnings rebound forecast for oil companies. For example, the consensus forecasts call for Chevron to have a 24% gain in earnings in 1999. Texaco is forecast to post a 37% gain, and Phillips Petroleum a 32% gain. The story is similar for oil services companies. Yet, oil prices will be starting 1999 below the average for 1998. A sharp spike in prices sometime in 1999 would therefore be required to have 1999 prices average more than 1998. With Japan in recession, and U.S. industrial production now slowing down, demand is not likely to pick up much. Supply conditions aren't likely to change much either, given recent inaction from OPEC. Briefing.com is therefore skeptical about any major increase in oil prices next year. Those profit forecasts have to come down so long as oil prices stay even flat, much less drop further. As a result, Briefing.com has the oil services sector rated underperform (4) for the near term outlook. The outlook for oil prices, and even commodity prices as a whole. simply remains weak. For many, this is good news. For some, it is bad news.

To: SargeK who wrote (33251)	1/7/1999 12:32:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OSX up again as predicted - again. Message #s 28567 8/31/98 OSX 53.03 Predicted it would finish up month over month in Sept. Message # 29947 9/23/98 OSX 62.78 Message # 33252 12/24/98 Predicted OSX over 60 within ninety days - with likelihood this month OSX now over 60 with strong support. Have a good day SargeK

To: SargeK who wrote (33251)	3/8/1999 8:44:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

U.S. Fleet "OSX2000" is about to Sail After a 1 ½ years in drydock the fleet has been overhauled, trimmed down and refurbished with state of the art technology (upgrade and retrofit). It did a test run last Wed and Thur, paused for a breather (modest profit taking) on Friday to make final adjustments and is ready for sea. The smaller ships the "U.S. FGI", "U.S. GIFI" and "U.S. UFAB" will be the leaders of the pack (on a % basis) having survived the Hurricane leaner, meaner and stronger than ever before. With little debt, solid backlogs and small "float", these ships will be dispatched to reconnoiter the perils ahead. The "RALLY" will resume today and trend upward for the foreseeable future. New (short term) support will be established in the mid 50s but will be seldom visited. We are headed for OSX 60+ by the end of this month. A minimum of 1mbpd cut by the exporters will lead to a further jump to 70 or 80 in 100 days following the "Meeting". I strongly believe those waiting for a revisit to OSX 40s will be disappointed and lose out on 20% to 30% of initial potential profits. I will be down to 10% cash by the end of the day. The genie is out of the bottle folks and it will not be stuffed back in. Good luck to all SargeK

To: SargeK who wrote (33251)	3/8/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 95453

Posted December 21, 1998 SargeK: "It is not a question of "IF"; but, "WHEN". I believe we are on the threshhold of the "WHEN". During 1999 I FORECAST the OSX into three digits, probably sooner than most expect or anticipate. I see 60 or better within ninety days and I wouldn't be surprised if it occurs next month." Posted when 95% of the posts on this thread was into deep 'doom and gloom' and the nabobs were at their best. Hey, we might hit 60 today or tomorrow! Now wouldn't that be nice. VBG K