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To: BigBull who wrote (33260)	12/21/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Red Alert !! The sector is going into oversold mode again !! All hands to the buy buttons !!

To: BigBull who wrote (33260)	12/21/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Crude rebounding, now down -.11 from -.50.

To: BigBull who wrote (33260)	12/21/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

OSX + 20% by Jan 31st..... RON is the posterchild for the OSX stocks at this time; @ $22 this is a gift, both short, near and especially long-term. RON spiked to $27 ( +20%) on the initial Iraq bombing news alone; the majority of this move was short covering; it rebounded to $34-37 after the Sept & Oct selloffs (over + 50% return). The problem here is that the OSX is ''under-bought'' due to all of the obvious tax loss selling as the Oilpatch had a terrible year. While the TSC again has a gloom & doom article, and most every talking head on the Street is trying way too hard to spin everything negatively; there are a few stories like Forbes article on the Rockefeller & Buffet-esque cyclical and value aspects of todays enviroment. For anyone not to view RON as 20%+ - ''in the bank'' is niave imho. To buy into tech-land here at 52 week highs vs. bottom fishing into financials & the Oilpatch is the epitome of momenteum - Lemming investing. Even with further revised earnings; we have PE's and shareprices that reflect those revisions today. Certainly it is not enough to just buy ''any'' oilpatch company. High debt is an obvious negative in this enviroment - to be severely penalized imho. But those with solid balance sheets like SDC, DO, ESV are not being rewarded with any PE premium to most of their peers... Some stocks with solid growth prospects , even in a prolonged negative crude enviroment, like CXIPY CLB SCSWF CDIS PGO are especially over-sold. To not expect that crude and the oilpatch stocks have bottomed here into the face of sub- $10 Brent, a total market selloff/crash, Clinton's Impeachment etc. is to miss the most obvious of cyclical bottoms. Sure, we may have 10-15% or even 20% declines in some stocks; but on allmost any positive news such as further production cuts from the Gulf States/OPEC, any positive IEA or API numbers, or positive news on the Asian economy/demand; and we move 20% on short covering alone, let alone what we may expect on just the return of tax loss sellers. We have a confluence of negatives that have all hit in a 90 day window here - I see any number of events that can give us a 3rd run up here; perhaps 20% allmost overnight - and then perhaps the beginning of a long, slow, steady recovery leg. Come Jan 31st - time will tell - too many tax loss sellers who will be returning not to expect 20% + minimum imho. When the Funds start returning - the momenteum may just be very surprising... Good Luck all - Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Kwansa and also to those select few who celebrate ''Festivus'' - and you know who you is...<VBG>.