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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (27334)	12/21/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: Kevin Hay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Clark, re: =-=-=-=-=-= So far orders have actually increased at 30% per month. It is snapping back, and will probably continue for at least a little while more. When he made that statement he obviously considered that impossible, but now, one month later, we are two quarters into his recovery. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= 1st, you meant '1 month later we're two MONTHS into the recovery', yes? 2nd, 2 months ago Russian markets were going to 0 and Japan was on the verge of a collapse of their financial system. Isn't it more likely that the last couple months of improvement is more based on relief that the world isn't going to complete hell than on a bonafide trend change toward cap eq purchases? Look at the last few gdp reports and you'll notice a trend toward a decreasing manufacturing sector. Granted, electronics have bucked the trend, but even that is in the context of chip makers shutting down (korea) and cutting back here. Point being is there's a lot of unused capacity right now. And with so many people eating up the cheap machines I don't see a motivation for any substantial investment in new mfg eq. Us shorts just gotta pray they don't change their name to applied.com! Also, if the fed surprises with a rate cut tomorrow shorts will be in deep dodo.., not that that's likely. cheers, -Kevin