*AV*--That's the trouble when you deal with things out of your field of expertise and when you have to rely on the information of others. But for every NPRO or BYDS, there is an ENMD or UBID (GEEK or ABOV) to make up for it.
Selected sections of today's abbreviated newsletter (Holiday Schedule)
OPENING COMMENTARY FOR DECEMBER 24, 1998
The DOW continued to make headway and then some, on Wednesday, finishing up 157.57 at 9202.03 on 688M shares while the NASDAQ exploded and made uo fir yesterday's retreat. Th NASDAQ was up 51.56 points to hit a new high of 2172.54 on very heavy volume of 974M shares. Apparently the Santa Claus effect for the DOW and the NASDAQ has not ended yet. This looks to be the best present for under the Christmas tree and a welcome situation for the retailers. I thought, along with many others, that the retailers might not fare too well this holiday season. As it turns out, it looks as if sales are up over 5% so far, over the 1997 season. 1997 was supposed to have been a real good selling season, making this season a hit. So, it is worth our while to look at some of your favorite retailers and consider whether their present prices reflect a good quarterly report for the first part of calendar 1999.
It looks like I am becoming addicted to writing this newsletter and can't seem to take the necessary family break from this. The compromise reached was a 3 hour time limit for today. Good thing today, though, is that there are very few things to actually talk about. Both UBID and BCST became homeruns once again on Wednesday. For those still invested in BCST (90% of mine were sold when a LLT tripped), you are to be CONGRATULATED on your additional $12.25 in profits. And for those of us still in UBID, another $53.50 helped to wipe away the frustration of exiting too early on BCST. For those of you still in both, well, you have my address and FED EX can deliver same day, in time for Christmas to be merry for me<GGG>.
Seriously, for those of you that have made some nice profits over the last 2 months or so, I would hope that you do share a small part of those profits with those less fortunate this holiday season. Between my wife, her 2 sisters, their brother and our collective families, we have adopted a family of 8 for Christmas. They escaped war torn Bosnia and managed to get to Utah through the help of others only to have the head of the household desert the family. They have absolutely nothing and it broke our hearts to see what they asked for. No Nintendo 64s or PCs but rather toothpaste, shampoo, underwear, clothes, shoes, coats, books, and classical music. I am not asking anyone to do anything I wouldn't do, so as you do that last bit of last minute shopping, take notice of the Salvation Army bucket, the request for old overcoats, or even the local food bank. If you do, I promise to work as hard as I can to help us all prosper in 1999. That way, we might be able to do our little part to bring the real meaning of this holiday season into better perspective.
As I mentioned yesterday, UBID was caught precisely at the right time and BCST was timed rather well, even though I didn't get ALL of the greedy profits. ABOV made its move on Wednesday by catapulting up more than 50% for the day. We picked this recent IPO's low and its turnaround correctly. These stocks illustrate a few good points. First, is the study of certain trends and trying to determine and anticipate how and when you can turn this into profits. Second, having patience to sit on the sidelines with certain entries into stocks such as BRKS, AMD, ETEC, MASK, PRIA, and a few others while letting things develop on these stocks or in other stocks. Third, not to dwell on the premature exiting on stocks that have gone up after I exited, creating LLT opportunity errors. The delayed, postponed, or minimal entries look real good now since the monies were put to much better use in the form of UBID and BCST, and now ABOV and GEEK. The LLT opportunity errors are still errors that I will not gloss over even though an argument could be made that the lost opportunities were made up elsewhere. It is necessary to highlight these as errors since I do not want to rationalize anything away.
Most recently, we went after (purchases and commentaries) SFAM and IPEC in a positive but aggressive fashion. SFAM seemed to have paid off slightly, finally, on Wednesday. WFR gave back a little but is definitely attractive. MASK may have settled down and final positions were taken at 11-3/4 while we are still waiting for some signs of turnaround on IM. Ingram Micro fell another $3.06 on 15X average daily volume. MASK and IM penalized more than they should have and will present the next set of opportunities down the road.
IPO SAGA - We watched for the bottom and the slight up-tick before considering whether to enter and it paid off handsomely for ABOV, GEEK, XMCM, INSP and especially UBID, which is up a whopping $150 in just the last 4 days. GEEK hit its post IPO low and is now working its way up as we mentioned previously. UBID has a trigger of $181 to protect $150 of profits but I really would like to wait until after New Year's to sell this stock. It looks like you could not have gone wrong with any of these stocks if you waited for the bottoms we outlined and then took a chance on the reversals back up into the positive direction. I must give a great deal of credit to the herd mentality.
Symbol IPO @ IPO Open 52W Lo 52W Hi Close Change
ABOV $13.00 $13.00 $11.50 $26.88 $25.75 $8.88
GEEK $13.00 $13.25 $11.50 $34.56 $31.00 $16.25
INF $20.50 $22.25 $21.88 $27.13 $26.50 $0.25
XMCM* $14.00 $22.63 $21.13 $45.13 $44.00 $9.13
UBID $15.00 $40.00 $30.00 $189.00 $188.00 $53.50
INSP $15.00 $25.00 $19.50 $40.38 $39.75 $6.13
AHWY $7.00 $6.00 $9.50 $9.00 $2.44
CNQR $12.50 $14.00 $14.00 $25.88 $25.13 $-0.13
Pacific Internet (PCNTF) is still expected to debut with analysts expecting at least a $3-pop in Pacific Internet.
Pacific Internet, - just an online access provider, not as glamorous as other internet offerings, BUT it will offer its services in Singapore, Hong Kong and the Philippines.
12/21 PHLX to Begin Trading Options on Infinity Broadcasting Corporation (INF) -12/24
HOT STOCKS CLOSE TO ACCUMULATION
IM [33-15/16, -3 1/16] - down 12-5/16 in 2 days. A case if market over reaction to a temporary situation. Waiting for a bottom to establish a position.
ANAD [10-3/4, +1/16] original target was $12.50 but shares were acquired a full $1.50+ below that point at $10.75 (12/15) and $10.25 (12/16).
December 18, - Anadigics adopts shareholder rights plan
ERICY [23-15/16, +15/16] -no change from previous comments and I still believe it is extremely attractive. ANAD and ERICY have been over-reacted to, setting up potential future gain opportunity.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) regained 5.23 points of the 10.09 points it lost on Tuesday, which reflected some profit taking. CFMT, MASK and WFR are to be mentioned here relative to value and current pricing.
MAJOR INDICES
DJI 9202.03 +157.57 IXIC 2172.54 +51.56
OEX 610.48 +14.26 SPX 1228.54 +24.97
IIX 635.29 +23.62 NWX 401.43 +14.73
SOXX 349.49 +5.23
NEWS YOU CAN USE DOWN THE ROAD
December 23, 4:59 pm EST - Micron Technology, Inc., Reports Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 1999 biz.yahoo.com
December 23, 6:42 pm EST - Micron Technology posts loss but beats estimates biz.yahoo.com
December 23, 7:37 pm EST - U.S. stocks surge, poised for Santa Claus rally
biz.yahoo.com
December 23, 4:53 pm EST - ASM, Applied Materials restructure settlement
(Reuters) - ASM International N.V. (ASMIF) stated that its obligations to Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) in accordance with a 1997 litigation settlement have been
restructured. In November 1997, Applied Materials and ASM settled all outstanding litigation, and Applied Materials received from ASM a subordinated convertible note for $80 million, due and payable in November 1997. ASM made a partial payment of $15 million against the Note on November 2, 1997. ASM said in a statement that they have have restructured the note, with ASM paying $20 million on December 23 and agreeing to pay $10 million on or before November 2, 1999 and $35 million on or before November 2, 2000. AMAT also received security for the note, 1.5 million warrants to acquire shares of ASM at $5.375 per share and certain other licensing considerations.
STOCKS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED AND MONITORED
In deference to paying subscribers, this list cannot be disclosed.
30 of 50 stocks on our screen closed in positive territory on Wednesday, causing the pendulum to swing towards the positive. The table below has 14 of the 24 stocks closing in positive territory on Wednesday. This table reflects the IC chip industry whereas the table above is more geared to the equipment sector along with other technology companies. Between the 2 tables we see a real negative attitude that pervaded throughout the day. A number of LLT exit prices were put into place Wednesday to protect profits from erosion.
Table #2 is also embargoed
* worth keeping a closer eye on
TIMELY TOPICS
ANAD - PAIR - MIPS - IPEC - SFAM - all highly visible and being monitored for performance and next positive cycles up. IPEC and SFAM are longer term.
FROM THE RADAR ROOM
NAVR - might be the base but watching for SEC spin off paperwork.
SGI - For the long term investors, with price objective of $20.
IOM-Accumulation zone below 7-1/2 and up 1 7/16 in 4 days.
MTSN - possible second chance for a bottom.
GSNX - Interesting future play for 25%.
GaSonics International Announced Approval of Stock Repurchase (Dec. 15).
AEIS - Looking for target of $14.
REFR - Like the technology. refr-spd.
LOCKED ON TARGET
A full description can be found in RadarViewâ Volume 2 Issue 27 and 31 for review.
VRSN - exited with 30% gain verisign.com
MIPS[28, +3/4] - LLT set at $27 and almost tripped when stock got to 27-1/4
BCST - Prior 33% gain - Re-entry at $9.50 lower @ $62.50 last week. BCST is up just under $28 in the past 3 days and is a timing GRAND SLAM home-run once again. Up 45% this time around. LLT EXIT OCCURRED FOR >45% GAIN.
ETEC - Previous Exit at $38 for 32% gain. Ready to re-enter if stock drops more.
NVLS[55-1/8, -1 3/8] - #1 LLT @$50 for profits. Re-entry at $47 Exited @ 56-1/2 for 20%.(#2) Re-entry at $49.50, up $7.25 in past 3 days and is a great timed entry.
UBID [188, +53-1/2] - up ~$154 over past 5 days and has performed as expected. We reported the trading range had tightened up, the price hit bottom for entry consideration, and is now LOCKED ON TARGET with OVER 300% gain.
SIII - decided not to tempt fate and exited at $8 for a 60% profit.
ATMI[24-11/16, +3/4] - up ~$8 since entry and is now a >33% gain.
ABOV and GEEK - see first part of newsletter.
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SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION
contact: stepman@hotmail.com
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RadarViewâ is a financial publication that is geared towards the NYSE and NASDAQ equity markets as they relate to telecommunications, technology and semiconductor sector investments. Stocks presented might have trading range guidelines established from time to time, entrance and exit strategies, along with taking advantage of volatility in certain stocks as they come in or out of favor on news. Most of the stocks highlighted will fall in to the $5 to $80 price range with enough daily trading volumes to minimize the degree of market manipulation that can occur with the under $5 stocks.
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