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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Lins who wrote (9830)	12/21/1998 6:58:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Well, I can't say I've had a great few days, but STIA which is a good proxy for how I'm doing is up moderately. I'm not outperforming the market by leaps and bounds like I was earlier on though. You may want to look at STIA and STIA2 for some ideas. As far as 3Dfx goes, ok, may be the distribution can be better managed via ingram micro et all. But other issues still remain (refer to my long post about cash flow management, end user support, etc). Also, that post had the implicit assumption that there was as much demand as 3Dfx desired and 3Dfx could produce as many cards in timely fashion as it wanted. Both of these assumptions are too optimistic to say the least. I am not bashing 3Dfx or putting them down. I think in order to go where they want to, they have no choice but to vertically integrate. And I trust that they found a good match. What I am saying, is that the company's guidance is for a 50% increase on top of the expected profits for FY99 (which will remain flat due to share dilution). This in itself is a great achievement and I am not going to set myself up for disappointment by expecting the profits to climb 400%~500% due to the merger. Now if they execute superbly, and if their products continue to rule, and if the bull market does not come to an end next year, then it is likely that by this time next year, when the focus is on 2000's earnings, TDFX will trade between $22~$34. That is 100% to 200% return on investment which will be remarkable. However, those are some fairly big iffs up there. They are possible, but somehow...iffy ;) Have a good one, Sun Tzu