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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (16322)	12/21/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, IBM is no longer a great growth stock while CSCO is. I definitely don't believe that CSCO is a bubble stock. This is one of the five companies that will dominate the next decade along with MSFT, AOL, LU, and YHOO!. It's very expensive and almost ridiculous to have a forward PEG more than 2, but this is definitely a dominant player in the tech field. When market crashes, MSFT and CSCO will also suffer. But I can't imagine these two going below 100 and 60 in the worst case. larry!

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (16322)	12/21/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: McNabb Brothers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, When the bubble burst I think all stocks will be hurt including low priced stock such as FSTW! If you agree with that statement should one sell stocks like FSTW? On the other hand one needs to position themselves into long term core holdings, and in the internet field I think CSCO and MSFT are much better investments then the true internet stocks! As one pointed out to me the other day, during the gold rush the people that made money were those that supplied the goods that the handlers needed such as Levi's with their jeans and those that made the picks and shovels! As is today I think there will be a many an internet stock go by the way side, but those that supply the goods to run these internet companies will be very profitable! Roger, do not fight the Fed and do not fight the trend until either the Fed tightens or the trend breaks, and right now they have neither been broken yet! The shorts will have their day and I hope to be right with them, but until then as the old saying would go "do not step in front of a train" needs to be change to "do not step in front of the bullet train!" Still very bullish on the whole market and we will see a blow off to all stocks in due time , but now is not the time! Hank

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (16322)	12/22/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 18691

Roger, I agree with you 100%. I still own a bit of CSCO (600 shares) but I'm not anxious to buy more. In fact, I've lightened up a bit recently. In part it's a reflection of how high it's gone, and the fact that I absolutely insist on diversifying. When one stock gets to be too big a portion of my portfolio, I trim it somewhat. Still highly weighted in techs, but no more than 15% in any one type of technology (eg: semis, cap equip, software, services, etc.) Been burned once. Lots of people have never seen a bubble burst, and don't realize that when it bursts there is NO CHANCE of getting out "on the way down". mg