Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: barry s who wrote (16160)	12/21/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: oldcrow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

About this bubble bursting... JMHO, here, but several facts may just prevent this "bubble" from EVER bursting, rather we may see it "carmelize" into one of those un-popable hybrid-plastic bubbles. 1) Traditional valuation investors will continue to pour money into the short side...nervously waiting for the "imminent" pay day of the millenium... 2)Fat-money daytraders will continue to drool in ecstacy as the short interest rises...then they'll squeeze....with every last cent they have.... 3) Panicked shortsellers will crack...crawling around in misery...they cover.... 4) Average Joe buy and hold E-trader, "blind" to what is going on, sees the metoric price rise and jumps on as well..."gonna pay my kid's tuition with this baby for sure"...all I gotta do is buy...close my eyes...open them 5-10 years from now. 5) Meanwhile....out come the reports of how home PC purchases have increased dramatically...out come the reports of how internet access subscriptions have increased dramatically...out come the reports of how e-commerce has increased dramatically....out come the reports of how the average PC user is beginning to EMPHATICALLY embrace e-commerce...the reports continue.......projecting that X % of Americans will be on-line by such and such year...that X % of Americans will be using E-commerce by such and such year...etc...etc. 6) True "e-commerce" investors read the reports and conclude that e-commerce WILL be big...they buy in vigorously..."at the bottom" <ggg>. 7) The short sellers, having successfully avoided a brush with suicide, collect themselves for another round against the "mothers of all shorts"...but... 8) More of those damn reports.... 9) More of those damn Fat-Money day traders... 10) More of those damn "blind" buy and hold Joe E-traders... 11) More of those damn sci-fi prophets (buying into the future) at the "bottom" 12) More of that damn short covering... 13) More of those damn 30 to 50 point price increases.. I believe these stocks will continue to be volatile, however, I don't think they will EVER truly "burst"...the internet IS the new frontier...and everyone wants to stake a claim...I say prices continue to rise...stocks announce splits...more affordable...prices rise even more... I will go on record as claiming that YHOO will break 300 in association with its earnings (and alleged) split run... Happy Holidays to everyone!!

To: barry s who wrote (16160)	12/21/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: HG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

Although I don't think will be an internet stock crash but nevertheless you made a very enlightening point in that post. Somehow, most haven't thought of it that way. I guess asset allocation does not mean much under such a scenario - does it ? Although margin investors have been all but weeded out, still, human psychology will tend to favour the internet stock crash as a stock market crash overall. Money may move to real estate or gold. OTOH, there may not be any money to move anywhere - internet stocks like AOL, YHOO, CSCO, LU have become a core holding now. Hmmm......food for thought.

To: barry s who wrote (16160)	12/21/1998 8:54:00 PM
From: trouthead	Respond to of 27307

If this great catostrophe happens it will be the next great buying opportunity. It will not suddenly turn quality compaines into beggars. HD MSFT T CSCO and the like will keep on making money for the forseeable future. The net stocks are over priced by todays measurement, and it appears they will never catch up. I liken the current situation with net stocks to the bio tech craze several years ago. Many of those stocks traded at ridiculous prices. Some have proved viable and others have passed by the wayside. Both sectors are and were traded on future valuations, not todays PE. Their is greater risk with the internet stocks. Trade accordingly. If you don't, you're a fool and deserve what comes to you. jb

To: barry s who wrote (16160)	12/21/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: daniel yeung	Respond to of 27307

Barrys, Don't worry. Market will not crash in one day. At the same time, Yahoo will continue to fly until AMZN split. Do you remember the stock IOM. Market is totally out of control. Do we step sideline and wait for the market pullback ? Definitely not. I'm in Yahoo and Amzn when they are around 130. I'm in and out several time for long and short. I think the smart play right now is to buy the long call option instead of buying the security. If Yahoo continue to go up, I still make a lot of $$$. Otherwise, I only lose a limit amount of $$$. Market may be a big correct starting early of Feb 99. At that time, I time the net stocks will cut 1/2 of the value today. regards daniel

To: barry s who wrote (16160)	12/21/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: Michael Norton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

Barry, My opinion is that you need to first understand the reason why this happened-the internet mania. In October, Yahoo had come off a great quarter but the stock like other nets got slammed because of the correction in the market. Meanwhile, the institutions/funds had lost a great amount of money in the financials,hedge funds and other traditional investments. This resulted in lower fees, earnings and share price. While the average investor was contemplating buying treasuries, the funds and institutions were looking for alternate investments to replace lost valuations and increase portfolio return for the remainder of 1998. Their choice was the internet leaders:AOL,AMZN,YHOO etc. Traditional investments wouldn't work-low earnings growth for the BLue Chips combined with low interest rates. Thus, the nets-high growth/no earnings/no valuation methods was the ticket. I know this because I deal with institutions and funds. The question today is, Have they made enough money? I believe so. I sold YHOO at 190-200 in my accounts that I held since the 1996 lows-call me stupid. I agree with your series of events playing out but will add that when the selling starts good luck trading on-line. This will only add to the fear. Merrill has made the call on AMZN and other nets-the small investor hasn't listened. Merrill strongly supported the nets until this point. I worked for Merrill in the 80's and when they make a call you better listen. Like the first NSCP, YHOO etc. fall from grace the semiconductor industry was coming off a bad period much like today but suffered a tempory setback on the correction that happened when the nets fell. After the correction, the Semi's became the lead sector with the core Tech MSFT,CSCO,DELL,INTC becoming the safe haven. YHOO etc went to the lows. The nets are a reflection of what is right and wrong with the market. The right being an acceptance of Technology by Wallstreet and the average investor. The wrong being buying equities based upon no fundamentals shows lack of experience. My clients were long AOL, YHOO, AMZN, INKT, EBAY etc when the companies dictated an investment. Recently, when the companies stopped acting like investments but became just a symbol and a price, I sold them. We can only control what companies we invest in. We cannot control the market. I hope that I am wrong-I don't want the market to go down. The sad part of the mania is that good companies that have gone public will have a hard time in the future raising money with a depressed stock price. Michael