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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jack Whitley who wrote (24748)12/21/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart  Respond to of 42771
 
Paul Versus Jack:

PAUL....
<<No disagreement from me The problem is that monopoly not freedom is the future in this industry. Novell should consider a merger NOW!!! In the end it will save jobs.>>

JACK....
>>So I do not think monopoly is the future in this industry at all. I think that after Y2K, the change in the balance of power in this industry is going to come much quicker than it did in AT&T's case. I don't see how a failure to merge is going to cost Novell jobs. The
speed and bandwidth that is rushing to the edge of the network is far outstripping the development curve of Active Directory and Windows Server whatever. Can you fully utilize the the bandwidth increased 16 fold by DWDM if it terminates into a Windows NT network? Unless MSFT has a skunkworks somewhere with a secret weapon, they are going to have to get ready to share some of the wealth, whether they want to or not. Monopoly is not the future in this industry, the Internet will not let it be.>>

Amazing how perspective drives thought. We all think we know things, when in fact its our perspective - not our thought- that really determines our effectiveness and the value of our thoughts going forward.

Even a naive perspective of hope and opportunity will blow away the hard core realism of a cynic with a boatload of experience. Why? The naive person will pick him/herself back up and learn each time while on the path of growth and development. The cynic's development is arrested.

Microsoft's development is arrested. So what if they have $17 billion in the bank. How much is that $17 billion really worth if its being deployed by individuals who reflect a business model that "takes energy" rather than gives it. I'd say it's worth a fraction of that amount. Actually, looked at another way, the real danger for Microsoft is that the vast majority of that money will be eventually used against it by developers and other companies Microsoft attempts to fund into their camp.

With the internet the horses are far out of the barn. Microsoft's $17 billion would have to go to fund thousands of Indians riding all these wild horses of freedom.

You've got it Jack. This bandwidth explosion will bring Microsoft down faster than any of us could ever predict. Share the wealth?? That's an understatement....

Good to see Paul coming back out of his Raging cave once again to share these insights with us. He does this usually on the eve of major moves in Novell. This perks me up. Perhaps we are heading to $20 sooner than we think.

All the best.