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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kelly G. Splitt who wrote (13432)12/22/1998 2:06:00 AM
From: ed  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74651
 
Well, no one can predict the exact price of stocks at a certain time, however , we can predict the trend.

If the history can tell you something and we can learn from the history of the past trend, the stock of Microsoft was at $70 in Jan of 1998, and if we assume that the price of MSFT will hit $150 by Jan of 1999, which is a reasonable assumption, my prediction is Microsoft will double again by Jan of 2000, that is $300 before split , and $600 by Jan of 2001 at least. Thinking about that under the shadow of the DOJ case in 1998, and not too many new products were released in 1998 , Microsoft still doubled in 1998. So in 1999, with the direction of DOJ case getting clearer, and more new products will be released in 1999, 2000, and its success in e-commerce business, Microsoft will double every year in 1999, and 2000. The leap of Jan 2000
150 is about $17, and Jan 2001 $150 leap is about $29, so you can calculate your profit margin if you buy these two leaps today and hold untill they are expired.



To: Kelly G. Splitt who wrote (13432)12/22/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: SC  Respond to of 74651
 
Target price: investor.msn.com

Kelly <<What is the most conservative and best guestimate of what the price of MSFT will in the following timeframes ... >>

At the linked Microsoft Investor page, it calculates two target price based on current P/E or Industry' current average P/E and estimated earnings. You probably should use more discounted P/E or estimated earnings if you want it to be more conservative.