To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14452 ) 12/22/1998 3:56:00 AM From: Kerm Yerman Respond to of 15196
IN THE NEWS / Saudi Eyes Painful Budget Cuts As Oil Price Falls DUBAI, Dec 20 - Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter but financially battered by the recent plunge in prices, is running out of easy ways to cut spending and is bracing for painful new reforms, economists say. As the government draws up the 1999 budget, there are few signs of a quick recovery in oil markets and economists say this year's actual deficit could soar to 45 billion riyals ($12 billion), more than double the state's original forecast. They said the need to open up the traditionally closed economy has been shifted up the agenda with the collapse in the price of oil, by far the state's biggest source of revenue. "It's making the kingdom think of reform in sectors which are very difficult," Prajapati Trivedi, resident World Bank economist in Riyadh, told Reuters by telephone. The government has already begun restructuring the power industry with plans to raise some electricity prices and is spinning off the telecommunications sector from the state -- unusually bold moves in the conservative kingdom. To treat a more immediate cash crunch, the government ordered spending cuts halfway through 1998, such as halting some projects and contracts, as oil prices slid to 12-year lows. A top banker in the kingdom said spending on foreign defence contracts had been slashed by $2 billion-$3 billion to about $5 billion-$6 billion in 1998, and more cuts were likely in 1999. Cuts included equipment deals and operation and maintenance contracts. The kingdom is a major arms market for foreign firms. The economists said new measures to trim the deficit in 1999 could involve raising fuel prices and further state sell-offs. "Some of these decisions are tough," said Saudi American Bank economist Kevin Taecker, but they were also "quite positive" because they would bring private sector-led growth. In 1998, the government budgeted spending of 196 billion riyals against revenues of 178 billion riyals, leaving a deficit of 18 billion riyals. Riyadh does not reveal what oil price it uses as a basis, but economists have suggested $14-16 a barrel for Saudi crude, which trades below benchmark Brent. The kingdom has output of more than eight million barrels per day. Some speculate that the 1999 budget would be based on a price of less than $14 a barrel. With a barrel of Brent touching $9.60 in December, some unofficial forecasts said the actual deficit could hit 45 billion riyals, other estimates suggest 30 billion riyals. A Saudi British Bank report said that with a moderate oil price rise next year -- far from certain as producers seem paralysed about action to shore up the oil market -- 1999's deficit could be 32 billion riyals. Taecker said reining in spending could reduce 1999's shortfall to 15 billion riyals. Another Riyadh economist said spending cuts alone in 1999 would not set the economy on the right road: "This would be a short-term medicine, but what we need is a long-term operation." He said the government had already resorted to some easy options, such as announcing price rises for big electricity consumers while leaving smaller consumers untouched. "Unfortunately, our options are running out in this area," he said, adding that mobilising the $200 billion private Saudi investors are said to hold overseas but reluctant to repatriate was the key to boosting state revenues in the long term. The government has little room for manoeuvre for cuts as state wages make up a big chunk of the budget. Some analysts say cuts to the lavish welfare state are sensitive as it could upset the citizens' traditional trade-off of political power in the desert monarchy for a comfortable economic environment. "We will do our utmost so as not to overburden our citizens -- especially those of limited or medium income," Crown Prince Abdullah told a newspaper in November. But the heir to the Saudi throne also told Gulf Arab leaders in December in unusually frank comments: "We must all get used to a different way of life, which does not stand on total dependence on the state." Bankers said the state, wary of foreign borrowing, could finance its budget shortfall internally. A senior banker said local banks could fund the deficit even if it hit $15 billion.