Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SilverAG who wrote (33)	12/22/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3543

quote.yahoo.com :TULIP INDEX Index shows total for today's close = 1,126 & 1/4.

To: SilverAG who wrote (33)	12/28/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: SilverAG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3543

New record set today- I'm astounded by the amount of money flowing into these five tulips- it simply boggles the mind. An amazing $13.9 billion flowed into these stocks today. To get an idea of how much 13.9 billion is, consider this: the monthly net inflows into equity funds averaged around $20 billion or so during the bull market of the last couple years. Now we have $13.9 billion going into just 5 stocks in one day- good GOD! This kind of stock mania can only end in one way- Crash 'n Burn. Perhaps when the crash comes we'll see these 5 stocks correct 50% resulting in a $61 billion net outflow (current market cap around $132 billion). $61 billion is a huge chunk o' change- the IMF bailout package to Brazil is $40 billion. What will happen to that money if the stocks don't rebound? While some money will be made from short-sellers, the majority of it be GONE, never to return- it will have effectively left the system. The negative multiplier effects from such a crash could easily plunge the economy into recession. I remain more convinced than ever that a crash in net stocks is imminent, and that this crash will precipitate a chain of events that will bring about a bruising recession next year. December 28, 1998 market stats: (a) (b) (c) (d) AMZN +1.4 $351.9 +27.2 8.4% YHOO +2.8 $275.5 +28.4 11.5% AOL +9.4 $157.3 +20.6 15.1% EBAY -0.02 $285.6 -.4 -.1% CMGI +0.22 $131.5 +9.6 7.9% Total +13.9 (a) Change in market cap (billions) (b) Closing price 12/28/98 (c) Daily Change (d) % Daily Change