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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (35570)	12/22/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 94695

Haim, I'm actually not seeing much in the western press about what's currently going on in S. Iraq. However, those guys at Stratfor, who have some ties to the Intel community, seem to believe there is a covert side to this latest series of strikes. Having such a long-term "covert" project underway on the ground is the only way that I can grant any justification for the timing and limited nature of the attacks. As for US/Iran relations, I certainly see elements on both sides seeking some reconciliation. However, I also realize that extremists on both sides wish to preserve the current tensions. Iran, at one time, showed great promise towards becoming a modern nation in the western "tradition". Obviously the Shah corrupted his power which led to his demise, but the Ayatollah certainly wasn't well received by the Iranian business sector either. The business of making money and improving a countries economy is where countries can find common ground. I believe that is the sector we are hoping to strengthen. And let us not forget that Israel also has had business and military dealing with Iranian extremists (Iran/Contra). That also frightened many folks. I still believe that should Hussein be overthrown, oil prices will plummet do to the lessening of regional tensions. I continue to watch how Russia attempts to influence events there. Should oil prices continue to decline, many Persian Gulf states will be facing sharply reduced revenues and recessionary stresses (including Russia). None of these parties really want to see lower oil prices, thus the rationale to stir things up a bit in a controlled fashion. Regards, Ron