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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Everest who wrote (2984)	12/22/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

intellectualcapital.com Emailed to Roleigh Martin ____________________________ 'I received the below from a Y2K Lawyer who has written and spoken on Y2K; he is well regarded by many in the field. He agreed to let this go public if made anonymous, including changing the locality to a generic Southern City or Southern State. The below is in reference to: >Y2K Will Arrive Ahead of Schedule >by Duncan A. MacDonald >December 3, 1998 > >http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/98/1203/icbusiness2.asp > >(Duncan A. MacDonald- Intellectual Capital.com) --Roleigh -------------------------------------------------------------------- \|Date: Sat, 19 Dec 1998 17:18:34 -0500 \|From: Y2K Lawyer \|Subject: Y2K Lawyer on Former Citibank Counsel: Americans Will Try Roleigh, this 'former general counsel', who noticeably takes zero responsibility for any of Citibank's y2k problems, appears to know little - yet talk about much in broad strokes. I've snipped as much as possible: (SNIP) \|In short, Americans cannot escape the inevitable risks of Y2K. \|Like characters in The Decameron fleeing a medieval plague, they \|can run to the hills if they want, as some doomsayers are doing, \|but the bug eventually will catch them, frustrate their best-laid \|plans and cost them dearly for years to come. Just prior to above he claims the bad things are going to occur in rural areas while glossing over urban western areas with an unsubstantiated inference that Denver, SF etc will have their systems fixed but their problems will be mountain based. His analogy of fleeing the plague is cute but does not square with my three years of y2k risk analysis. Urban areas have a current rating of toast by every emergency management expert I have spoken privately with - with that category further detailed into well done and burnt. The well respected one I interviewed last week said he has to stay but *his family will be rural by November. \|Inevitably, Americans will reckon with Y2K ahead of schedule, \|probably next summer, when its various possible consequences \|finally catch their attention. Despite calls from business and \|government leaders to stay calm, large numbers of them will try \|to protect themselves by withdrawing from banks, hoarding goods \|to survive shortages and changing their spending habits. Sometimes you can tell which agenda someone is following by the use of certain words: here it's hoarding to describe and deride citizen self-sufficiency and preparation. Why would the thought-through gathering of food, water and energy, in the face of what is currently known, be hoarding? Most EM types think 90 day supply is bare minimum but are putting forth 2 weeks in order to get the general populace to at least DO something for their own survival. (two weeks is official minimum here in hurricane alley). If the "authorities" have given supply preparation any thought they certainly are doing an excellent job of keeping it under wraps. Our friend Mac Donald appears to believe urban folks will all "just get along" in the cold and dark, or maybe he thinks President Al Gore's nationalized national guard will take the place of our weaponless urban population and overwhelmed law enforcement. My current information shows some low level awareness (not solution) discussions on food distribution maybe late January 1999. EM experts "know" only a very very small portion of the population can be fed and watered - they plan for the ones who can't, not won't, for themselves (and that will only be for that 14 day minimum - after that ???) If I have several members of my party somewhat dependent on meds and medical services for their long term health, do I place my family in a Southern city and wait patiently for a "someday plan"? I think not. \|The Y2K domino effect One area they are likely to shun is travel. \|Late summer is when many Americans plan winter vacations and \|business trips, but not next year. Out of a fear of getting \|stranded or because their employers will order them to suspend \|their vacations, they will stay home, setting off an adverse \|chain reaction affecting airlines, hotels, rental agencies, \|retailers and restaurants. We fully expect this Southern State to become filled to the waters edge with those willing to be hungry and thirsty but warm before next fall. The "snowbird" population will swell many times normal before winter 1999 - initially great for tourism (til minor problems with water, sanitation or food occur). We live on a guard gated island but even if the neighbors are willing to blow the bridges and defend the shoreline we are sure to be plucked early in the game if the power goes. Still no interest in Y2k neighborhood discursion. (SNIP) \|The negligence of those who caused Y2K continues in their failure \|to tell us how to address it. Many of the worst effects of the \|above scenarios could be reduced if government and industry were \|to bring people into the process of dealing with Y2K. Business \|leaders tell us all the time that markets perform best when \|information flows freely. They should practice what they preach. I'm sorry but general counsel to a credit card company has big residual responsibility for those money sucking, population disrupting Y2k problems. He didn't know what his MIS people were doing? He vas only following orders? Yep, my, at first humorous, observation that we'd get to the point of stringing up a few programmers to assuage corporate and political guilt may be closer to a prediction than I ever thought. Better hide your MIS credentials Roleigh. Hey, thanks for listening - it's been a full week of Y2k bozos and know nothings. The mind boggles at the number of "experts' spouting drivel. warm regards Y2K Lawyer