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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (2615)	12/22/1998 1:36:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Terry ; Yes it does, and while most of the gains have been in a narrow band, at least they are in liquid type stocks. While the narrowness of it don't speak real good , "IF" that were to happen in the less liquid ones, I would be shaking in my boots. What I'm trying to say to market watchers is "IF" you see the reverse happen, and a few of the under 50B cap stocks take the DOW way up , THEN LOOK OUT FOR A HUGE DOWN WAVE WHEN IT COMES as it is now I'm not bullish on her , but she is too liquid for a real big melt down, as the smaller "less float" ones are already dragging, if any thing they could get a pop which could lift her fast before a big correction. However the market looks too cautious at this time for me to say that will happen. So far I don't see a blow off top caused by "smaller float" companies when they shoot the index up, GreenSpam is feeding the market via biz.yahoo.com These things can do short term wonders, they don't want a lot of TAX loss selling, They may get some but will try to hold a lid on it. Longer term I'm not near as bullish as the market seems to be, like the retail Xmas shopping is up 0.1% for this time last year, and so many people are taking that as good, my god if we were growing anything like they have said we are growing that should have been up 4% or more. All that growth is still mostly priced into the market, or at it least hasn't adjusted down to reasonable levels. I'm also seeing with my own eyes price inflation on the store shelves of many items that the CPI is not counting. Most of it Junk..and fancy toys, inventories are much better controled now days, and I bet you won't see half as many after Xmas specials this year as last year..my guess is about from March or maybe as late as June they will start talking about inflation, only after it's already upon us. Jim Jim