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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (4360)	12/22/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

Great points. I would add that IBM now seems "fairly valued" whereas before it was grossly undervalued so insiders would not want to diversify until they got to market multiples. Again, I started to trim my position as well as it is never bad to take 6x profits, get all your money back and into something to diversify. I still have 4% of net assets in the company and hope to trim back from 5% to 4% again really soon! regards Kirk out

To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (4360)	12/22/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Jim Koch	Respond to of 8218

Arrow Hd, IMHO your analysis is right on. IBM's 4th Qtr will be very, very good. HW, SW, Services...all showing very strong results. PC's OK, but still not meeting the company's expectations. Dell is making lots of inroads into IBM's core customers, large business users. IBM has formed "SWAT" teams of sales specialists to try to stop the bleeding. Remains to be seen how effective they will be. You are right on when you talk about IBM's 1st Half business model. Tremendous emphasis on first half results. The sales force is being highly motivated (i.e. being paid a LOT!) to close 1st half business. Their quotas are going to be BIG, but if they succeed in making or beating the numbers, lots of money! The feeling is that if they don't bring in over 50+% for the year in the first half, IBM won't meet its numbers. This is a lot different than normal, usually the 2nd half is what counts. Lots of differing opinions on the effect of Y2K, but clearly IBM's management is concerned. Not only on the business itself, but the expected lawsuits to follow. The legal profession, the true "bottom feeders", are licking their chops. The stock continues to amaze me. I am tired of buying back my "conservative" out of the money calls at a loss. Will just use tight, trailing stops to follow this thing up. Good luck to all!