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To: Groundhog who wrote (24812)12/22/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: goldsnow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116759
 
I hope not...But would be prepared to double if it does...POG held $270
twice this year...eachtime failed to break above $300--that should tell us something...Third time is a charm? (one possible interpretation)



To: Groundhog who wrote (24812)12/23/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: goldsnow  Respond to of 116759
 


US shrugs off any hint of gloom

By Eric Ellis, San Francisco

Global slowdown? Bah, humbug, if you are American!
Happy days are here again!

The International Monetary Fund's gloomier prognosis
this week for the world economy in 1999 hasn't had
much of an impact on Americans as they spend with an
abandon that would have Scrooge turning in his grave.

With all the bad news of the past week, any armchair
pundit could be excused for predicting it might be time
for a national squirrel mentality to take hold after eight
years of solid growth during an era many economists are
calling the US's most prosperous in its history.

But as they literally fight each other in shopping malls to
snare that most precious (and expensive) of Christmas
gifts, the Furby, with their muscular greenbacks,
Americans from San Francisco to New York are having
nothing of it.

Indeed, witness the front page this week on The Wall
Street Journal, the corporate American bible: "Joy to the
World, America Still Embraces a Culture of Optimism,
The Good Feelings Premium."

There is an infectious air -- perhaps soon to be a fatal
one -- of invincibility about the current US economy, with
the September mini-meltdown forgotten and rarely
discussed.

Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that last
month it generated almost 300,000 new jobs, bringing
the unemployment rate to just 4.4 per cent, just shy of a
30-year record low.

Or that the stockmarket has this year shrugged off major
calamities in Asia, Latin America and Russia to hover at
record levels. Or that inflation is at 30-year lows. It all
has the government cock-a-hoop, despite the travails of
its colourful and impeached chief executive. "The Grinch
hasn't stolen the economy yet," Labor Secretary Alexis
Herman said, evoking the well-known American yuletide
villain.

The absence of the fabled Grinch might also explain why
US savings rates are also at historic lows, according to
data from the Government's Council of Economic
Advisers.

The personal savings rate of Americans for September
and October has effectively dropped below zero, an
eloquent statement of optimism also explained by the fact
that there's been a better and faster return in the
stockmarket than there is in low-interest bank deposits.

If there are dark clouds on the horizon, they are not
immediately obvious to most Americans. As 1999
arrives, there is precious little interest or even debate in
the economic impact that the new euro might have on the
economy, while the obstinate dark economic clouds over
the developing world have still failed to impact out there
in the heartland.

"The central bank has done an excellent job of calming
jitters," says Wells Fargo economist Sung Won Sohn,
who claims the Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan's well-timed interest rate cuts this year have
postponed at worst and prevented at best a severe
slowdown. The Christmas buying binge and the present
calm beyond American shores, particularly in Latin
America where markets have boomed this past week,
prompted the Fed to keep interest rates where they were
on Wednesday.

The Fed's Open Market Committee kept the benchmark
rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent, after slicing three
quarters of a point on three occasions in the last three
months.
afr.com.au