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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (33406)	12/26/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: Paul Angell	Respond to of 95453

George, Excuse the delay in replying. I think the bad news is already out on OSX stocks. I have spoken with people at SLB, BHI and HAL, and these firms have already laid off thousands of oilfield hands. Their largest operating costs have been reduced and they, like a lot of others, can weather the current low price environment. However, the fundamentals for oil majors do not look good in the short term, hence the current wave of megamergers. Exxon - Mobil; BP - Amoco. Notice how these merger tactics have bouyed their stock prices. If oil prices slide further or if the FTC dictates over-zealous divestures in downstream operations; then there could be some selling pressures on these megamerged companies (short term) IMHO. So I would agree with shorting the majors but only for the short term. I would not dream of shorting oilfield services at 25year low in oil price. Alaskan North Slope was selling at $8.46 the other day. That's less than 4 lattes, round here, and that's fundamentally unsustainable. Happy Holidays, Paul.