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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AmericanVoter who wrote (30938)	12/23/1998 7:59:00 AM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>Mr. Bezos sale of 180,000 shares represent 1% of his holdings excluding >options... This sort of thing always comes up to try and quiet investor's fears when large insiders dump shares. You do understand that Bezos could never sell all of his shares because Amazon would drop to around 2 dollars if he tried it all at once, dont you? He has to do it slowly. The mere fact that he was quoted in GQ magazine as saying he'd never sell a single share kinda contradicts his actions. (Does anyone know WHY he said that or have a page and issue number? i'll run across the street to the library and dig it up) Everyone, be happy, but sell by Jan 4 if you want to keep your profits.

To: AmericanVoter who wrote (30938)	12/23/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: MoonBrother	Respond to of 164684

WOW! This is just in - analyst predicting a blow-out q4 revenue, somewhere from 300mil to 500 mil!!!!!!!!! -------------------------------------- 07:50am EST 23-Dec-98 Needham & Co. (Dalton Chandler 212-371-8300) AMZN Early indications of a blow out in 4Q98! Equity Research Morning Note Dalton L. Chandler (212) 705-0315 December 22, 1998 dchandler@needhamco.com Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN/OTC) Early indications of a blow out 4Q98! Price (12/21/98): $318.75 Shares Outstanding (MM): 51.2 52 Week Range: $318.75 - $24.88 Market Cap. (MM): $16,600 Recommendation/Target: HOLD Average Daily Volume (000): 4,524 12/96A 12/97A 12/98E 12/99E 12.00E Was Is Was Is Was Is Revenue (MM) $15.7 $147.8 $533.8 $846.1 $1,307.6 Gross Margin 22.0% 19.5% 22.7% 23.9% 26.0% EPS: 1Q $na $(0.08) $(0.22) $(0.51) $na EPS: 2Q na (0.17) (0.35) (0.46) na EPS: 3Q na (0.21) (0.49) (0.44) na EPS: 4Q na (0.23) (0.53) (0.37) na EPS: Year $(0.17) $(0.69) $(1.59) $(1.77) $0.34 P/E Ratio na na na na 850.0 * EPS excludes merger-related charges. * Investment Opinion Based on yesterday's closing price of $318.75, the shares of AMZN trade 18.6 times our 1999 revenue estimate of $846.1 million versus our eCommerce universe average of 9.8 times (the median is 6.7 times). We reiterate our Hold rating on the basis of valuation. Discussion We have it on good authority that AMZN is so overwhelmed with holiday orders that it is having difficulty fulfilling them all. This raises several important questions. First, the Company did $154 million in revenue in the third quarter with no apparent capacity restraint. How big would this quarter have to be to cause difficulty getting product in and out of the warehouse fast enough? $300 million? $500 million? We don't really have a good guess, but this brings us to important question number two. How big could AMZN's quarter have been if it had no capacity restraint? Again, we don't have a good guess here, but we are willing to bet that management won't allow shipping capacity to impede sales in future quarters. While this is generally bullish news for the Company, we also note that AMZN's enterprise value, at $16.9 billion, is now virtually the same as May Department Stores, a company that we believe is the fourth largest general merchandise retailer in the country. AMZN is also within striking distance of JC Penney's enterprise value of $19.4 billion. We continue to acknowledge that AMZN has many advantages over these traditional retailers and that it deserves a premium multiple for this and for its high growth rate. Having said all of this, we can't get over the feeling that this is a stock that has gotten ahead of itself. Amazon.com, Inc. is the leading online retailer of books and the third-largest bookseller overall in the U.S. The Company is also the largest online seller of music and is opening an online video store and gift center. At the end of 3Q98 the Company had more than 4.5 million customers in its direct marketing database.