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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (12939)	12/23/1998 9:11:00 AM
From: Dr. D	Respond to of 13594

Joe Kernen on CNBC just said Aol is trading up to 141 Netscape up to 59 3d

To: Sam who wrote (12939)	12/23/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 13594

Good points, Sam. Holiday shopping season. Haven't come across the latest figures yet -- Nor have I, although AOL is doing 3 1/2 times the e-commerce business it did last Christmas, from what I recall. Netscape model. The deal should close without a hitch. The challenge will be to integrate them into AOL business model -- or execute a new one. Having 70% of internet traffic is a tremendous opportunity. And don't forget SUN, whose Java applications and its portability might be the glue that brings these two different models together. I don't think we will know how well the integration is going for another 3 months, and I don't see much impact on the internet market for maybe 6 months. A lot of analysts have been on the sidelines waiting to see how this evolves, the same as they did with Compaq and Dec. Broadband/Appliances. This area will really hit up next year. Ubiqutitious -- no. But I believe that xDSL technologies will begin to roll out in earnest, with cable not far behind. This is the biggest issue that AOL has to solve, IMO. I agree that xDSL will be the leader in the near term, and from the figures I have seen cable is further behind than I thought. I believe I saw a projection for 21M broadband users by 2004, of which only about a third would use cable. And of current cable subscribers, only 5% have opted for internet access. Cable is still seen very much as a TV medium, and this will change dramatically, but it is further off than we think, again IMO. The further out it is, the more opportunity AOL has to work the legal problems of access. A deal for broadband access should be struck next year some time -- at least it should. I think it must. And I look for it to be an ADSL package with some major telco, perhaps Bell Atlantic? Investor sentiment. This can be a two-edged sword, and I hope the index funds can even this out some. Keep a level head and reevaluate your positions for the coming year. Think about where AOL is headed, who its competitors are/will be, and how it can leverage its market position. Forget about the past -- we're running on internet time. Great advice, but hard to follow on internet time :-) I would also look for a deal between AOL and some major media firm. CBS has been mentioned. One last thing. In spite of all the price projections being bandied about, I think the fund managers will do whatever they can to keep the price down while they get in. Would not surprise me to see a downgrade or two to help them.