To: doug doan who wrote (26 ) 12/23/1998 4:48:00 PM From: Bucky Katt Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 82
Call 'em up and talk to the cfo, they have plenty of cash flow to handle the debt. The thing to worry about is the low prices of product. Geopolitical considerations will drive prices up over the next 6 months. Why? Because as oil producing countries keep missing debt payments, the banks in the west are going to inherit the problems, and they ain't gonna let the western banking system fall apart when the oil markets can be manipulated up. I may be off-base, but it seems logical.>> LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged gingerly higher as icy Arctic weather gripped the northeastern United States on Wednesday, but a stubbornly glutted world petroleum market denied conviction to the gains. International benchmark Brent blend crude from the North Sea struggled to $10.16 by the close, up 15 cents but little more than half a dollar above 12-year lows earlier this week. The gains took on new fragility after new data from the United States market showed little sign of relief from a huge stock overhang that has dented oil prices all year. The American Petroleum Institute (API), a key pointer to market patterns in the world's biggest oil consumer, reported an unseasonal 600,000 barrel rise in crude oil stocks last week. Oil companies typically drain their stocks toward year's end to lighten tax liabilities, but the effect in 1998 has been blunted as U.S. refinery runs eased back. The icy weather in the U.S., ending two months of abnormally mild late autumn and ear winter conditions, came too late to register in the API figures. Temperatures were well below freezing on the East Coast consuming centres and an ice storm coated roads and caused traffic chaos across the U.S. South on Wednesday. Yet oil markets are cushioned by a distillate or heating oil stock overhang of nearly 20 million barrels compared to 1997. The stubborn stock surplus continues to plague oil producers who have coordinated two rounds of cutbacks this year only to be greeted with renewed price weakness. And they are getting little benefit from rumbling tensions in Iraq in the aftermath of last week's military air attack by the United States and Britain. Yet Iraq's success in maintaining 1.8 million bpd of crude exports under the U.N. humanitarian oil for food exchange during the four-day campaign has left oil traders sanguine about any potential impact on supply. Prices in dollars per barrel: Dec 23 Dec 22 (close) (close) IPE February Brent $10.16 $10.01 NYMEX February light crude $11.33 $11.12 __________________________________________________________________ NYMEX Hub natgas, pressured by concerns about storage and soft physical prices, ended lower Wednesday in quiet, pre-holiday trade, then stayed little changed on ACCESS after a neutral weekly inventory report. In the day session, January slipped 1.9 cents to close at $1.906 per million British thermal units after trading today between $1.87 and $1.94. Then on ACCESS, January traded in the $1.90-1.91 range shortly after the weekly AGA storage report. Earlier, February settled 1.8 cents lower at $1.902. Other deferreds finished down 0.4 to 1.8 cents. ''The (AGA) number is in line with expectations. It's not really bullish or bearish,'' said one Midwest trader. AGA said Wednesday U.S. gas stocks fell last week by 85 bcf to 91 percent of capacity, slightly above Reuter poll estimates in the 75-80 bcf range. But total stocks jumped to a hefty 704 bcf, or 31 percent, over year-ago. Eastern inventories fell 57 bcf to 92 percent of capacity and were 18 percent above last year. Consuming region west storage, which lost seven bcf for the week, was up 45 percent from 1997 levels. Stocks in the producing region dropped 21 bcf and stood 57 percent over year-ago. Despite the season's first cold snap, traders said only a sustained Arctic blast could trim stocks and turn sentiment bullish. Near-term, most saw more pressure ahead, as utilities lean on storage, not spot to meet incremental demand. Significantly colder-than-normal weather is expected to blanket most of the U.S. this week before moderating by the middle of next week, Weather Services Corp. reported. Technical traders noted January briefly slipped below support today, closing the gap at $1.88 from last week. Next support was seen at the recent contract low of $1.79, which coincides with a prominent spot continuation low at $1.78. Major buying should emerge at $1.61, which is the spot low for the year. Key resistance was still pegged in the $2.12-2.19 gap, with a close above that level needed to turn sentiment bullish. Further resistance was pegged at $2.26, the 50-percent retracement point. Next resistance was seen in the mid-$2.30s. In the cash Wednesday, Henry Hub swing quotes slipped more than a nickel to the high-$1.80s. Midcon pipes also lost more than five cents to the mid-$1.90s. In the West, El Paso Permian tumbled more than 15 cents to about the $2 level. Gas at the Chicago city gate was talked more than five cents lower in the mid-$1.90s, while New York was little changed at about $2.30. NYMEX will close at 1300 EST Thursday and will be closed Friday for the Christmas Day holiday. The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip slipped 1.2 cents to $1.988. NYMEX said an estimated 61,489 Hub contracts traded today, little changed from Tuesday's revised tally of 61,702.