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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (35630)	12/23/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

You have the minute 4 retracing back all the minute 3. Also it was much more pronounced then the 8/97-10/97 correction you named minor 4. Your count is not impossible. There are probably many wyas you can count within the rules. But my count is the best I could come up with. Time will tell. BTW- on an intraday basis, do you agree that today's close marked the 5 of 5 of the move from 12/14 SPX 1138 ? ATG

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (35630)	12/24/1998 4:15:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Claude, >>But in your count you get an Intermediate 4 of higher degree which last the same time... I would have expect a wave Intermediate level to last at least a year..akin Intermediate 2 which lasted 11 months. Why is a wave 4 of minute degree lasting 2 months is forced and a wave 4 of Intermediate degree isn't ? In my count I also have: Primary 3 - 8/82 to 10/89 t= 7 years .....Intermediate 1 - 8/82 to 6/83 .... Intermediate 2- 6/83 to 6/84 .... Intermediate 3- 6/84 to 8/87 ........... Minor 1- 6/84 to 7/85 t=13 months ........... Minor 2- 7/85 to 9/85 t= 3 months ........... Minor 3- 9/85 to 7/86 t=12 months ........... Minor 4- 7/86 to 9/86 t= 3 months ........... Minor 5- 9/86 to 8/87 t= 11 months .... Intermediate 4- 8/87 to 12/87 .... Intermediate 5- 12/87 to 10/89 Primary 4 - 10/89 to 10/90 t= 1 year Notice that Intermediate 4- the '87 crash - took 4 months, and Primary 4 just 1 year. Many 4s are sharp and brief. Also Supercycle 4 (the '29 crash and aftermath) took under 3 years to complete. While Supercyle 5 is already 66 years old. This is one of the things that I believe are in favor of my count- The '97 mini crash, the '98 mini crash and the '87 mini crash are all 4s in that count: '87 and '98 are intermediate 4s and '97 a minor 4. The 1990 Primary 4 was accompanying a recession, and that IMO makes it a correction of greater degree then '87 or '98. The even greater degree '74 bear (cycle 4) was accompanying a greater recession, and the greatest degree '29-'32 "correction" (supercycle 4) was accompanying the big depression. ATG