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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (35632)	12/24/1998 6:03:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

>>Can you explain why We can't have it this way: Cycle 4 t= 6 years Primary a - 11/68 to 6/70 Primary b- 6/70 to 12/72 Primary c- 12/72 to 8/82 well, that was maybe the toughest call on the LT count. Did the bear cycle end in '74 or did it extend to '78 or even '82? On the S&P real return chart cpcug.org Both counts look to be carrying the same weight. But on the ratio scale 1920-1998 chart (Acrobat reader needed) webcom.com One can see the similarity between the '70s and the '30s, and that the question is more general- Where do you mark the end of a big 4th wave. If extended for a stretched ABC then one should end the Supercycle 4 not in '32 but in '42 and end cycle 4 in '78 rather then '74. This way the period 9/87 to 10/91 can be also counted as one corrective phase. I prefer the short and steep version of the 4s, that in the cases above also correspond to downturns in the economy. IMO we are on our way to end a Grand Super Cycle in both the stock market and the economy- An event that is unprecedented in modern history. The only economic parallels that come to mind are the collapse of the South Sea bubble and the fall of the Roman Empire. One sure bet is that Gold will shine brighter if the global economic system will have a system failure and abrupt shutdown. ATG

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (35632)	12/29/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Figuring out the EW count since 7/20/98 post #35625 ended: .... Intermediate 4- 7/20/98 to 10/8/98 [or 8/30/98?] .... Intermediate 5- 10/9/98 [or 9/1/98?] to present. Now we have to figure out the scale of the move from 10/9 till now. Hindsight helps a lot with E count. A month ago one could easily make the 7/20 to 8/10 period an A of ABC Intermediate 4 correction, with a clear internal 5 count in it- 1 till 8/11, 2 ending 8/25, 3 ending 9/1, 4 ending 9/23, 5 ending 10/8. In hindsight we have the market now higher then 7/20 already, therefore one has to fit the Intermediate 4 correction into the period before 10/9. Only two ways to do that: 1- Make the ABC end on 10/8 (the common sense scenario) 2- Make the ABC end on 9/1 (the wiseguy scenario) On the 1st scenario we have A ending 9/1 thus: 1 ending 7/28, 2 ending 7/31, 3 ending 8/14, 4 ending 8/25, 5 ending 1/9. B till 9/24 C till 10/8 On the 2nd scenario we have A ending 8/11 B till 8/25 C till 9/1 There is better supporting evidence to the common sense scenario: - The very clear 5 waves nature of the down move from 9/23 to 10/8. - 10/8 low lower then 9/1 low (wiseguy jumps and says: not on closing basis) So although I would like to be a wiseguy and declare the 9/1 to 9/23 move minute or minor 1 of Intermediate 5, I am complied to drop this theory untill it gets better support. (Just for the record - Wiseguy theory suggests 1 to 9/23, 2 to 10/8, 3 to 11/27, 4 to 12/14, 5 to 12/23 which completes minor 1 or a very minimal but nonetheless valid whole intermediate 5). Sticking with the common sense theory we have to figure the move from 10/8, and again I use hindsight: We have the very clear ABC move from 11/27 to 14/12 to guide us. It could be minute 2 or minute 4. David Plonk counts it as Minute 2 exchange2000.com <Quote> 6) Wave 5 ended on 11/27 at 1192.97, and was 77.42 pts. (shorter than wave 3). This wrapped up minute wave 1 of this minor wave 5 I believe we've started on 10/9/98, as indicated in post #35249. Minute wave 2 ended on 12/14 at 1136.89, and We've been in minute wave 3 since, <End Quote> David's count is of course viable. The arguments I have against it are mostly on the subjective level- The move from 12/14 to 12/23 smells like a 5 - short, sharp, accompanied by panic buying (internet related stocks), and achieving an unconfirmed new high (neither by volume, A/D or NH/NL). 3s are usually more of a grinding forward nature. Therefore I submit this possible count: 1 (Minute or Minuette)- 10/8 to 10/22 SPX 923.3 to 1080 = 177 points which breaks into: ........1- (Minuette or Subminuette) 10/8 to 10/12 SPX 923.3 to 1010.7 = 87 points ........2- 10/12 to 10/13 or 10/14 SPX 1010.7 to 987.8 = 23 points or 26% correction ........3- 10/13 or 10/14 to 10/20 SPX 987.8 to 1084 = 96 points ........4- 10/20 to 10/21 SPX 1084 to 1058 = 26 points or 27% ........5- 10/21 to 10/22 SPX 1058 to 1080 (only 22 points but a higher closing high). 2 - 10/22 to 10/28 SPX 1080 to 1059.6 = 20 points 3 - 10/28 to 12/8 SPX 1059.6 to 1193.5 = 134 points ........1- 10/28 to 11/6 SPX 1059.6 to 1141.3 = 81.7 points ........2- 11/6 to 11/12 SPX 1141.3 to 1115.5 = 25.8 points (31.6%) ........3- 11/12 to 11/27 SPX 1115.5 to 1193 = 77.5 points (clear 5 count inside) ........4- 11/27 to 12/3 SPX 1193 to 1149.6 = 43.4 points (56%) (clear ABC) ........5- 12/3 to 12/8 SPX 1149.5 to 1193.5 = 44 points (A sad excuse, I know). 4 - 12/8 to 12/14 SPX 1193.5 to 1137 = 56.5 points 5 - 12/14 to 12/28 SPX 1137 to (should end under 1271) ........1- 12/14 pm to 12/16 open ........2- 12/16 open to 12/16 pm ........3- 12/16 pm to 12/21 am ........4- 12/21 am to 12/22 am ........5- 12/22 am to 12/28 am or 12/29 This is JMO and many alternate counts apply. Next we should make if - then scenarios to select between the different interpretations. BWDIK? and the latest addition -Kick Me. ATG