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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 6:30:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Hibernia Limits Crude Oil Production Due To Natural Gas NEW YORK, Dec 23 - The Canadian-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board (CNOPB) will limit production of crude oil at Hibernia by nearly a third, due to surplus natural gas emanating from the oil production field, a CNOPB official said on Wednesday. The restriction, the second announced in a month, will begin on Jan. 1 next year. It will limit oil production from Hibernia to 68,000 barrels per day from the previous restriction of 97,330 bpd. Hibernia normally produces about 100,000 barrels of crude oil daily. The Hibernia Field, which Chevron discovered in 1979, is estimated to hold some 3 billion barrels of crude oil. Production will be stymied until the Hibernia Management and Development Co. Limited brings another gas injection well into service that will re-inject the surplus natural gas into the Hibernia reservoir. Hal Stanley, chairman of the CNOPB, said he hoped the additional well would come into service sometime during January 1999. Partners in Hibernia are Mobil Corp.'s unit Mobil Oil Canada Ltd with a 33.125 percent interest; Chevron Corp.'s unit Chevron Canada Resources Ltd with 26.875 percent; Petro-Canada's Petro-Canada Hibernia Partnership with 20 percent; Murphy Oil Corp.'s Murphy Atlantic Offshore Oil Co. Ltd, with 6.5 percent; the government of Canada's Canada Hibernia Holding Corp. with 8.5 percent and Norsk Hydro A/S with 5 percent.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 6:39:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Crude, Heating Oil Rise As Winter Weather Hits Eastern Canada Hibernia limits crude oil production due to natags NEW YORK Crude and heating oil futures rose Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange as wintry weather finally arrived in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Northeast. Home heating oil for delivery in January rose .64 cent to 32.54 cents US a gallon, while light sweet crude for delivery in February rose 21 cents to $11.33 US a barrel. The arrival of cold weather was tempered by news from the American Petroleum Institute that crude stocks rose nearly 600,000 barrels last week Ñ a rare gain considering the time of year. Heating oil stocks fell by almost one million barrels, however, the petroleum institute reported. Another antagonistic move by Iraq Wednesday also failed to drastically shake up the energy market. Iraq ordered the United Nations to cancel a scheduled flight of military observers who monitor the cease-fire and demilitarized zone on the Iraq-Kuwait border. Traders have brushed off much of the Iraqi actions and posturing over the last several months as none have appeared to threaten Iraqi oil exports. Last week after the United States and Britain launched a series of airstrikes against Iraq, crude prices briefly rose. They fell again after it became apparent that oil shipments would be unaffected by the attacks. In London, North Sea Brent Blend crude oil for delivery in February rose 28 cents to $10.29 US a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 6:51:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Fish Companies, Oil Companies Battle Over Marine Bank By CASSANDRA SZKLARSKI - The Canadian Press HALIFAX (CP) -- Atlantic Canada's boom in offshore development has pitted the oil and gas industry against an unlikely coalition of fishing companies and environmentalists in a war over Canada's richest waters. The showdown over Georges Bank, an ecological wonder off Nova Scotia teeming with marine life and unusual currents, is to take place in January. That's when fishing companies, including shellfish giant Clearwater Fine Foods, will demand that a ban on drilling there be extended. Oil and gas producers are eager to explore the area, a continental shelf straddling Nova Scotia's southern tip and the Gulf of Maine, because it's believed to contain as much as 10 trillion cubic metres of natural gas -- potentially 2 1/2 times the size of Nova Scotia's Sable gas fields. Fishermen and ecologists say development could destroy a fishing industry worth $100 million in landings. "Why risk this ecologically sensitive area when there are other areas where we say we can co-exist and we can get oil and gas?" says Derek Wells, spokesman for a coalition that has been fighting development for more than 10 years. "As far as we're concerned, the technology has not improved to the point where there's any peace of mind to any fishing organization that it can be done safely." The battle over the region is not a new one. Wells' coalition, called Norigs 2000, formed in 1988 when Texaco first suggested exploratory work. Chevron and Amoco are the two other lease-holders in the bank. Norigs won a 12-year moratorium on drilling that expires Jan. 1, 2000, and hopes to extend that ban until at least 2012. A similar ban on the U.S. side of the bank was extended to 2012 and Canada should do no less, says Wells. The Georges Bank Review Panel is to hold public hearings on the issue in January and is to report back to the federal and provincial governments by July on whether to lift the moratorium. Their fight faces fierce opposition in a region that in recent years has emerged as a hot spot for energy development. Billions of dollars and thousands of jobs are promised for Atlantic Canada's offshore through projects including Nova Scotia's $3-billion Sable Offshore Energy Project and Newfoundland's $5.8-billion Hibernia and $4.2-billion Terra Nova projects. Mark Butler, marine co-ordinator with the Ecology Action Centre in Halifax, says the pressure to develop the region's oil and gas potential is threatening to eclipse conservation efforts. "The oil and gas industry has, in the space of a few years, basically got access to the rest of Atlantic Canada," says Butler. "What more do they want? They want it all." Debora Walsh, east coast manager of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, says the industry does not deny that Georges Bank is a special place. "But that notwithstanding, just because it is highly productive doesn't mean that you cannot have the oil and gas industry and the fishing industry co-existing," she says, pointing to strict guidelines on pollution. Regulations set out by the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board restrict the amount of oil-based drilling lubricants, called muds, that can be released into the water to 15 per cent of the total discharge. Studies have found oil-based muds to be highly toxic to adult scallops, but they can also harm lobster and haddock larvae, says Paul Keizer, manager of Marine Environment Sciences at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography in Dartmouth, N.S. Seismic work produces sound waves that can be deadly for fish eggs, he adds, which can also die if smothered by cuttings shed by drilling. Andre d'Entremont, an environmental adviser with the petroleum board, said regulations will be tightened starting January 2000 to ban any oil-based muds from being discharged. The ban will eventually include synthetic-based muds, which are less toxic, he said. There is no restriction to the amount of water-based muds that are released. Walsh said these restrictions keep companies well in check. Improved technology over the last decade has also reduced drilling's effect on the environment. "People want to use the moratorium because they don't have enough faith in the system," says Walsh. But "there are very structured mechanisms to sit down and consult with the fishing industry to try and minimize or eliminate any negative impact." Even if the moratorium were to expire at the end of the decade, Walsh says drilling would not begin until testing and environmental reviews are completed, which can take years. But Butler worries that a failure to extend the moratorium could herald open season in other fish-rich areas. "If Georges opens up, the Browns Bank will open up and what's to stop it from opening into the Bay of Fundy?" he says. "It's a domino effect, and Georges Bank is one big domino." Butler says the area should be set aside as a protected area, much like an underwater canyon known as the Gully off the coast of Nova Scotia. The federal government announced a pilot project Dec. 3 that would protect the Gully from petroleum producers interested in its large oil and gas reserves. The area is home to a variety of marine life, including sperm and bottlenose whales.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Oilpatch Vandalism Vexes Alberta Companies By REG CURREN - The Canadian Press CALGARY (CP) The Alberta oilpatch faced more than slumping oil prices in 1998 as well-site bombings, pipeline tampering and other acts of vandalism rocked the industry. Police and company officials fear 1999 could see even more. The mysterious campaign aimed primarily at Calgary-based Alberta Energy Co. Ltd. began over two years ago with tire slashings and other acts of vandalism in the northwestern part of the province. Forestry companies have also been targeted. Alberta Energy president Gwyn Morgan, who has been personally threatened, hopes for some sort of resolution as quickly as possible. The stress levels on our employees are so great, he said. There has been a tremendous upswelling of support for our industry in the area and a tremendous downswelling for this particular clan. The clan he refers to is headed by Wiebo Ludwig, 56, a former Christian Reform preacher from Goderich, Ont., who was charged in one attack but never prosecuted. Ludwig has said emissions from oil and gas wells near his Hythe-area farm have killed more than 50 of his livestock, caused three miscarriages among women in his extended family and caused birth defects in four grandchildren. Morgan said he is at a loss for solutions. It's a frustrating issue, but we always stand ready to do anything to demonstrate and test soil and water in the area to see if there's anything our company or anybody else in the industry has had anything to do with, with regards to this group. We have to find out more scientific information and see if we can get to the bottom of some of the problems these people are having. That seems to the logical thing for us as the solution . . . but unfortunately I'm not sure that thatÕs what they want. The situation escalated in 1998 to bombings and in one instance a shot was fired into an Alberta Energy field office. Police now estimate a total of 160 separate incidents have occurred in the past two years in a region about 400 kilometres northwest of Edmonton. RCMP are still trying to determine whether the bombings are being committed by individuals or a group. Ludwig and three others were arrested after a building near a gas well was blown up in late August. But charges were later withdrawn. Ludwig maintains tougher government standards on the oil and gas industry, it would largely eliminate the problem. ÒIt would cost them some money but save us a lot on health and agony and perhaps on bombings. Ludwigs neighbours, however, say they have never encountered any of the same problems. Alberta Energy which offered to buy LudwigÕs ranch for $800,000 if he agreed to leave Alberta operates two sour gas processing plants in the area at Hythe and Sexsmith. Sour gas contains hydrogen sulphide, a gas that can be fatal in high enough doses. RCMP Sgt. Dave MacKay says residents in the area remain on edge as 1999 approaches. Tires are still being flattened by nails on the road,Ó he said. People arenÕt reporting it directly to us; we hear it from the tire shops and they report higher than normal tires on oilfield vehicles. The investigation is progressing. It has become a very definitive way of building a case, piece by tiny piece.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 7:14:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Venezuelan Leader Vows Oil Shakeup By AP CARACAS -- It's one of the world's largest oil companies and an island of efficiency in a country racked by bureaucratic anarchy. But president-elect Hugo Cha-vez is vowing to shake up Pet-roleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, the state-owned oil monopoly he claims has become an elitist, money-squandering giant ac-countable to no one. "PDVSA has become a state within a state," he said at a news conference hours after his landslide Dec. 6 victory. "That is going to end in the administration of Hugo Chavez Frias." His plans for the No. 1 foreign supplier of oil to the U.S. and the franchiser of 14,500 U.S. gas stations through its Citgo Petroleum Corp. are alarming PDVSA executives. They fear he will dismantle the company that is Ven-ezuela's biggest source of export earnings. They also worry a government shakeup will derail or slow a multi-billion-dollar expansion plan involving Mobil Corp., Exxon Corp., Atlantic Richfield Co. and others. "There is no company that is more supervised, controlled or audited than PDVSA," said Luis Giusti, the company's University of Tulsa-trained president. He boasts of PDVSA's international reputation for excellence. Chavez, who led a 1992 coup attempt against the government, has announced he will fire Giusti, divert some of PDVSA's profits to social spending and rein in plans to boost production sharply.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 7:22:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Petro-Canada Bites The Bullet By CHRIS FLANAGAN, The Telegram Petro-Canada has confirmed it will bite the bullet and pay a $40-million US penalty to cancel its lease on an aging oil rig booked a year and a half ago to drill the Terra Nova oil field. The tearing up of the Transocean Explorer drill rig contract delivers a $60-million or $70-million blow to the Friede Goldman Shipyard in Marystown, which had been short-listed along with Saint John Shipbuilding in New Brunswick to refit the rig for operations on the Grand Banks. That refit would have provided about six months of work for several hundred employees at the yard. But the consortium developing the estimated 400-million-barrel oil field near Hibernia reckons it will still save $30 million to $35 million in total capital costs by ditching the Transocean rig — and reduce risks to the project at the same time. “We would have probably been looking at substantial cost increases on this project (with the Transocean),” Terra Nova management committee chairman Gary Bruce said at a press conference in St. John's Tuesday. “Essentially (the savings result from) from not having to undertake the extensive refit and also in (using) a much more productive rig, a rig built in late '80s or one that's just coming out of the yard today.” The more engineers looked at the Transocean refit, the more costs escalated, he said. Bruce defended the May 1997 decision to go with the 22-year-old Transocean Explorer, saying it was the only rig available at the time. “When we signed the contract you have to remember drilling rigs were at a premium. In fact we couldn't get a third- or fourth-generation rig, this was about the only opportunity we had,” he said. But with world oil prices wallowing in the $10-a-barrel range, offshore projects have been cancelled all over the world, freeing up modern rigs. A new rig now costs what the Transocean would have cost, Bruce said, and will allow Terra Nova operators to drill more efficiently. Newfoundland's newly appointed Mines and Energy Minister Roger Grimes said government is disappointed Marystown is no longer in the running for the refit contract but did not criticize Petro-Canada's decision. The change of rigs just months before the summer drilling program was scheduled to begin does not jeopardize the project's overall schedule, Bruce said. A back-up plan calls for two other rigs currently booked for exploration work on the Grand Banks to be pulled into service as drill rigs for Terra Nova. “If we cannot get a fourth- or fifth-generation drilling rig in time to begin our summer drilling program this year, we would look at upgrading the (Glomar) Grand Banks or the Shoemaker to do some work at Terra Nova,” Bruce said. “They could allow us to keep on schedule by doing some of the initial work.” Both rigs would require minor upgrades to do work for Terra Nova, he said, and the Marystown shipyard would be invited to bid on that work. The big winner in the rig cancellation may be Transocean, which stands to collect $40 million for not delivering its rig, currently at work in the North Sea. But without the Terra Nova refit, the rig's days of earning money are numbered, Bruce said “It will probably be stacked … in other words, it will probably be put in the boneyard pretty quick,” he said.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 8:07:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / CAODC weekly western Canadian rig count - Dec 22 WEEK OF DECEMBER 22 VERSUS DECEMBER 15, 1998 DRILLING MOVING DRILLING DOWN TOTAL YEAR AGO* ALBERTA 0/0 247/266 216/206 463/472 390 SASK. 0/0 15/ 23 48/ 41 63/ 64 71 B.C. 0/0 37/ 24 12/ 16 49/ 40 50 N.W.T. 0/0 5/ 4 1/ 1 6/ 5 2 MAN. 0/0 1/ 1 1/ 1 2/ 2 1 TOTAL 0/0 305/318 278/265 583/583 514 *December 16, 1997 MOVING = CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, BUT NOT AT FULL RATE. TOTAL LINE IS TOTAL WESTERN CANADA. FIGURES SUPPLIED BY CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF OILWELL DRILLING CONTRACTORS.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 8:16:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Canadian Natural Gas Stocks Fall 1.1 PCT To 479.01 Bcf In Week Ended December 18th TORONTO, Dec 23 - Canadian Gas Association (CGA) weekly survey of Canadian natural gas in storage in billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended Dec 18: Pct Full Pct Full 12/18/98 12/11/98 Pct Full Week Ago Year Ago East 230.99 233.43 95.0 96.0 75.1 West 248.02 251.12 89.3 90.5 72.7 Total Canada 479.01 484.56 92.0 93.1 73.8 East-West division is the Manitoba/Saskatchewan and North Dakota/Minnesota borders. East capacity 12/18/98: 243.06 bcf, 12/11/98: 243.06 bcf.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 8:22:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Canadian Spot Natural Gas Export Prices - December 23rd EXPORT (DEC SWING) $CDN/GJ $US/MMBTU HUNTINGDON B.C. 3.97/4.04 2.75/7.80 KINGSGATE B.C. (TO PNW) 4.00/4.07 N 2.77/2.82 N MONCHY SASK 2.19/2.27 N 1.52/1.57 N EMERSON MAN 2.64/2.71 1.83/1.88 NIAGARA ONT 2.74/2.81 1.90/1.95 Canada/U.S. dollar conversion based on Bank of Canada rate.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 8:26:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

IN THE NEWS / Canadian Spot Natural Gas Domestic Prices - December 23rd DOMESTIC (DEC SWING) $CDN/GJ $US/MMBTU ALBERTA PLANT-GATE 2.31/2.36 1.60/1.64 ALBERTA BORDER - EMPRESS 2.48/2.53 1.72/1.75 STATION 2, B.C. 2.75/2.80 1.91/1.94 SASK. PLANT-GATE 2.31/2.36 1.60/1.64 TORONTO CITY-GATE 2.76/2.83 1.91/1.96 1-YR PCKGS - EMPRESS 2.70/2.75 1.88/1.91 AECO 2.43/2.48 1.68/1.72 N=notional. One-yr package beginning Nov. 1, 1999. Canada/U.S. dollar conversion based on Bank of Canada noon rate. One-year packages converted to U.S. dollars at a 12-month forward rate.

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 8:45:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

CANADIAN MARKET WRAP -1 / Day Ending Wednesday 12/23/98 North American Stock Markets Enjoy One More Dose Of Holiday Cheer TheToronto stock market received a last minute gift of a pre-Christmas rally on Wednesday as investors wrapped up loose ends on their portfolios before the holidays began and the year came to a close. In New York, Intel led the Nasdaq advance after Thomas Kurlak, the influential semiconductor analyst at Merrill Lynch, turned bullish after a long-dubious stance. The change of heart triggered a North American rally that pushed the Dow to within 200 points of its own record high of 9,374.27 reached Nov. 23. It also triggered a mighty 2.4 per cent rally on the technology-heavy Nasdaq stock market, which reached another record high. "I think this thing's gone squirrelly," ScotiaMcLeod's Fred Ketchen said of Nasdaq, where Internet-related stocks like Yahoo and Amazon.com have been turning in blistering performances. "The prices of some of these things have gotten totally out of line, and I would have to think that it's going to bump its head somewhere along the way. You can't have things like that going on forever." Bill Ram, strategist at Levesque Beaubien Geoffrion, noted that momentum and year-end tinkering by fund managers helped boost Canada's largest bourse. "You've got last-minute tax-loss selling, window-dressing and portfolio-switching by institutions," Ram said. "It's deceiving -- it's not a broad-based rally." Investors must sell any holdings to reap tax losses before 1998 fades away and at the same time some are snapping up strongly performing issues to squirrel them away in their portfolios. Toronto's market had resisted New York's magnetic pull to higher ground earlier this week due to weakness in the heavily weighted natural resource sectors, but on Wednesday most of the commodities relented. The TSE 300 composite index gained 73.37 points to finish the day at 6,447.19, riding on the coattails of New York, where the Dow Jones industrial average surged 157.57 points to finish at 9,202.03. Turnover was unusually voluminous at 149 million shares worth C$2 billion. Advancing issues beat declines 562 to 510 while another 280 traded flat. New highs totaled 27 with 58 issues reaching new lows. Gains were registered in 11 of Toronto's 14 subgroups, including industrial products, up 2.6%, utilities, up 2.3%, and communications / media, up 1.5%. Red hot Internet and computer stocks in the U.S. hoisted their high-tech Canadian counterparts higher. Ottawa-based software maker Cognos Inc. continued to gain, rising $1.80 to $35.70 on the heels of a $6.90 gain on Tuesday. The company posted unexpectedly strong third quarter earnings late on Monday, prompting ratings upgrades by some analysts including James Moore of BT Alex. Brown who raised Cognos on Tuesday to a ''buy'' from ''market perform''. Northern Telecom climbed $4.40 to $80 while other technology stocks turned in strong gains; Delrina Corp. closed at $33, up $1.75, and Newbridge Networks gained $1.80 to $47. Utilities rose, thanks to Bell Canada parent BCE Inc., which climbed $2 to $57.60 after Bell announced plans to renegotiate agreements with the remaining partners of its national Stentor alliance of phone companies. Among communications and media stocks, Thomson Corp., publisher of the Globe and Mail, gained $1.15 to $37.25. Other positive sector gainers included consumer products 1.2%, pipelines 0.9%, financial services 0.8%, gold and precious metals 0.6%, oil & gas 0.3%, merchandising 0.2%, paper / forest products 0.1% and real estate 0.1%. Among hot stocks Noranda Inc., the natural resources company which split off its metals, forestry and oil and gas divisions, saw its when-issued receipts top most active issues. They slipped C$0.30 to C$15 on more than 10.5 million shares. Former forestry subsidiary Noranda Forest, now named Nexfor Inc., also saw its when-issued shares dip C$0.30 to C$5.75. And the energy unit, now named Canadian Hunter Exploration Ltd., fell C$0.40 to C$9.45. Vancouver-based drug maker QLT PhotoTherapeutics Inc. rose C$3.05, or nearly 10 percent, to C$33.90 after the United States Food and Drug Administration gave it marketing clearance on Wednesday for a late stage lung cancer treatment. Among industrials, BII Enterprises gained $0.59 to $3.62. Among mines, Barrick Gold climbed $0.30 to $29, Euro-Nevada Mining $0.30 to $24.95; Kinross Gold slipped $0.04 to $3.47, Greenstone Resources $0.20 to $1.30. OIL & GAS FOCUS The oil and gas composite index gained 11.59 to 4529.19. Among the sub-components, the integrated oil's rose 0.4% or 28.00 to 7010.56. The oil and gas producers gained 0.1% or 5.90 to 3949.53 and the oil and gas service group added 0.7% or 8.62 to 1310.58. Crude and heating oil futures rose Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange as wintry weather finally arrived in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Northeast. Home heating oil for delivery in January rose .64 cent to 32.54 cents US a gallon, while light sweet crude for delivery in February rose 21 cents to $11.33 US a barrel. The arrival of cold weather was tempered by news from the American Petroleum Institute that crude stocks rose nearly 600,000 barrels last week -- a rare gain considering the time of year. Heating oil stocks fell by almost one million barrels, however, the petroleum institute reported. Another antagonistic move by Iraq Wednesday also failed to drastically shake up the energy market. Iraq ordered the United Nations to cancel a scheduled flight of military observers who monitor the cease-fire and demilitarized zone on the Iraq-Kuwait border. Traders have brushed off much of the Iraqi actions and posturing over the last several months as none have appeared to threaten Iraqi oil exports. Last week after the United States and Britain launched a series of airstrikes against Iraq, crude prices briefly rose. They fell again after it became apparent that oil shipments would be unaffected by the attacks. In London, North Sea Brent Blend crude oil for delivery in February rose 28 cents to $10.29 US a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Temperatures in Canada ar expected to be 0-12F (0-6C) below normal. A sharp increase in energy needs for heating during the next 5 days is expected as the first Arctic airmass of the season settles in across the region. Temperatures are expected to average 6-12f (3-6c) below normal Thursday, 5-10f and (3-7c) below normal Friday. Temperatures are forecasted to average 4-8f (2-5c) below normal during Saturday, 2-4f (2-3c) and below normal Sunday, near normal Monday. Temperatures are projected to average near to slightly above normal thereafter for a few days. Canadian spot natural gas prices fell Wednesday amid forecasts for warmer weather in the U.S. and low demand from industrial buyers over the Christmas holidays, industry sources said. Warmer temperatures are expected for the U.S. Midwest and Northwest through the weekend and into next week, although Alberta temperatures are expected to remain around normal levels. Day prices at the AECO storage hub in Alberta were off about 17 cents from Tuesday trade, ranging from C$2.42 to C$2.55 per gigajoule. The January contract was quoted at C$2.45/2.52 per GJ and the January-March winter contract was discussed at C$2.47 per GJ. Prices at Westcost Energy Station 2 compressor dropped about 23 cents to C$2.75/2.80 per GJ. Trade at Sumas/Huntingdon fell back in line with other export points, plummeting to US$2.75/2.80 per million British thermal units, down US$4.25 per mmBtu from Tuesday. Panic buying, driven by cold weather in the U.S. Northwest, had pushed Sumas/Huntingdon pricing up to nearly US$20 per mmBtu earlier in the week. To the east, prices at the Niagara export point were quoted at US$1.90/1.95 per mmBtu and at US$1.83/1.88 at Emerson. Marketers are also waiting to assess the effect Northern Border's 700 million-cubic-feet-a-day expansion of its Saskatchewan to Chicago pipeline system will have on Canadian prices. The expansion capacity became available Dec 22, but can not be better utilized until it's gone through the full nominations procedure, Northern Border spokeswoman Beth Jensen said. The new capacity is currently shipping some gas into Chicago, but also has some water left in the pipe from hydrostatic testing, which should be gone by January, Jensen said. NYMEX Hub natural gas, pressured by concerns about storage and soft physical prices, ended lower Wednesday in quiet, pre-holiday trade, then stayed little changed on ACCESS after a neutral weekly inventory report. In the day session, January slipped 1.9 cents to close at $1.906 per million British thermal units after trading today between $1.87 and $1.94. Then on ACCESS, January traded in the $1.90-1.91 range shortly after the weekly AGA storage report. Earlier, February settled 1.8 cents lower at $1.902. Other deferreds finished down 0.4 to 1.8 cents. "The (AGA) number is in line with expectations. It's not really bullish or bearish," said one Midwest trader. AGA said Wednesday U.S. gas stocks fell last week by 85 bcf to 91 percent of capacity, slightly above Reuter poll estimates in the 75-80 bcf range. But total stocks jumped to a hefty 704 bcf, or 31 percent, over year-ago. Eastern inventories fell 57 bcf to 92 percent of capacity and were 18 percent above last year. Consuming region west storage, which lost seven bcf for the week, was up 45 percent from 1997 levels. Stocks in the producing region dropped 21 bcf and stood 57 percent over year-ago. Despite the season's first cold snap, traders said only a sustained Arctic blast could trim stocks and turn sentiment bullish. Near-term, most saw more pressure ahead, as utilities lean on storage, not spot to meet incremental demand. Significantly colder-than-normal weather is expected to blanket most of the U.S. this week before moderating by the middle of next week, Weather Services Corp. reported. Technical traders noted January briefly slipped below support today, closing the gap at $1.88 from last week. Next support was seen at the recent contract low of $1.79, which coincides with a prominent spot continuation low at $1.78. Major buying should emerge at $1.61, which is the spot low for the year. Key resistance was still pegged in the $2.12-2.19 gap, with a close above that level needed to turn sentiment bullish. Further resistance was pegged at $2.26, the 50-percent retracement point. Next resistance was seen in the mid-$2.30s. In the cash Wednesday, Henry Hub swing quotes slipped more than a nickel to the high-$1.80s. Midcon pipes also lost more than five cents to the mid-$1.90s. In the West, El Paso Permian tumbled more than 15 cents to about the $2 level. Gas at the Chicago city gate was talked more than five cents lower in the mid-$1.90s, while New York was little changed at about $2.30. NYMEX will close at 1300 EST Thursday and will be closed Friday for the Christmas Day holiday. The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip slipped 1.2 cents to $1.988. NYMEX said an estimated 61,489 Hub contracts traded today, little changed from Tuesday's revised tally of 61,702. Propane prices in Vancouver, British Columbia, spiked as cold weather caused demand to surge while a shortage of tank cars to the area restricted supply options, traders said. Posted prices were raised Wednesday to 32 U.S. cents a gallon, an increase of six cents. Traders said cold weather saw a big increase in demand and the region's lack of storage facilities resulted in a scarcity. The supply shortage was exacerbated by a lack of available tanker trucks from Edmonton, which has plenty of inventory. "Anyone who has available tank cars can do good business," said one Calgary-based trader. Traders also said some problems at gas plants were shutting in supply. Meanwhile, Edmonton propane was pegged at 13.50/14.25 cents, while Sarnia material was talked at 22.50/23.00 cents. Appearing among the TSE's top 50 most active traded issues were Canadian Hunter Exploration -$0.40 to $9.45, Summit Resources -$0.09 to $1.51, Canadian Occidental Petroleum -$0.15 to $16.10, Gulf Canada Resources +$0.01 to $3.58, Petro-Canada +$0.20 to $16.35, Petromet Resources -$0.01 to $2.80, Shell Canada A -$0.15 to $22.85, Anderson Exploration -$0.25 to $13.15, Renaissance Energy -$0.15 to $17.10, Fracmaster +$0.10 to $3.00 and Talisman Energy +$0.70 to $26.20. Top gainers included Seven Seas Petroleum (u) $1.55 to $7.05 and Talisman Energy $0.70 to $26.20. On the downside, Northstar Energy fell $0.90 to $43.10, Chieftain International $0.65 to $23.35 and Tri Link Resources $0.55 to $11.75. Percentage winners included Seven Seas Petroleum (u), Request Seismiic, Jet Energy, Morrison-Middlefield, Triumph Energy, Bonus Resource Services, Ultra Petroleum and Westminster Resources. Percentage losers included Crown Joule Exploration, Upton Resources, Phoenex Canada, Summit Resources, Probe Exploration and Elk Point Resources. Conglomerates posted the worst showing on the day, sagging 1.1% as Power Corp. slipped 75 cents to $33.45. Mines and minerals fell 0.4%, while transportation and environmental services stocks just edged into negative territory. Less than three months after sliding into negative territory for the year, and with just six sessions left in 1998, Wall Street's most popular measures are cruising toward a fourth straight year of double digit gains. The Dow is up 16.4 per cent, the S & P 500 is up 26.5 per cent and the Nasdaq is up a whopping 38.3 per cent. In Toronto, where the stock market is below 1998's opening mark by about four per cent, advancers outnumbered decliners 562 to 510 with 280 unchanged in trading of 150.6 million shares worth $2 billion. Meanwhile, the other Canadian exchanges also reflecrted gains on Wednesday. The Montreal Stock Exchange's portfolio index 51.29 to 3342.29 on very heavy trading volume of 27.4 million shares worth a value of $403.4 million. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners 202 to 178 with another 97 unchanged. 12 issues reached new highs while 16 fell to new lows. Among oils, Gulf Canada Resources gained $0.02 to $3.59. On the downside, Imperial Oil fell $0.50 to $24.75 and Pebercan $0.35 to $1.45. The Vancouver Stock Exchange's composite indicator gained 2.61 to 378.64 and the mining indicator rose 2.42 to 283.40. trading volume amounted to 27.5 million shares worth a value of $17.8 million. Advancing issues numbered 194 while 160 declined with another 418 remaining unchanged. New highs numbered 3 issues while new lows totaled 36. Oil and gas issues among the top 25 most active traded were Equatorieal Energy -$0.01 to $0.40, Ultra Petroleum +$0.02 to $1.25 and Stanford Oil & Gas -$0.01 to $1.30. Player Petroleum rose $0.20 to $2.20 while TMT Resources fell $0.08 to $0.30, Canoro Resources $0.07 to $0.52 and Ridgeway Petroleum $0.07 to $0.90. The Alberta Stock Exchange's combined value index gained 17.67 to 1668.49 on volume of 17.6 million shares worth a value of $4.44 million. Total issues traded amounted to 485 with 160 advancing, 154 declining and another 171 unchanged. There were 5 new highs and 23 new lows. The most active issue based upon both share volume and total dollar amount was ICE Drilling, gaining $0.005 to $0.105 on volume of 4.6 million shares. Other oil and gas related issued appearing in the top 25 most active traded were Prize Energy -$0.07 to $0.43, Belfast Petroleum -$0.39 to $1.41 and Telford Resources +$0.05 to $0.85. Appearing among top gainers were Progress Energy $0.25 to $3.00, Serval Integrated $0.25 to $3.00, Corridor Resources $0.15 to $0.65 and Ionic Energy $0.15 to $1.65. Losers included Liberty Oil & Gas $0.67 to $0.15, Belfast Petroleum $0.39 to $1.41, Devlan Exploration $0.30 to $0.85, Northline Energy $0.25 to $1.25, Edge Energy $0.10 to $2.30, Niko Resources $0.10 to $4.90, Sterling Resources $0.10 to $0.30, Solid Resources $0.10 to $7.05 and Red Sea Oil $0.09 to $1.10. Canadian Dollar Ends A Touch Firmer In Thin Trade The Canadian dollar lost earlier gains but still closed slightly firmer at C$1.5521 ($0.6443) on Wednesday in an illiquid pre-holiday session. The market was still testing the topside for the U.S. dollar in a technical move, but thin volumes made it hard to point a clearer direction. No big position taking was seen as financial markets will be closed in Canada on Friday for Christmas and on Monday for the Boxing Day holiday. The fear of a spillover effect of surging Japanese bond yields on North America has been allayed, and North America's economic indicator calendars are light for the rest of the year. Canada's October gross domestic product, due out on Thursday, is seen rising 0.2 percent (range: flat to +0.2 percent) after a 0.1-percent rise in September. There is no other major Canadian economic data release until December jobs data on Friday, January 8. In cross trading, the Canadian dollar fell to 74.64 yen from 75.08 yen at the previous close, but rose to 1.0780 marks from 1.0760 marks. The yen was recovering from a sell-off of Japanese assets earlier this week, triggered by a plunge in Japanese bond prices. Bonds End Weaker Again As Stocks Rally Canadian government bonds continued a week-long slide and ended weaker on Wednesday, taking their lead from U.S. treasuries in thin pre-holiday trade. Just as the market was taking a breather after sharp losses on Tuesday, a buying spree in North American stock markets drained capital out of bonds. Canadian bond prices were above water in morning trade, recovering slowly from two days of price drops triggered by surging Japanese government bond yields. Jitters over the impact of a plunge in Japanese stocks, bonds and currency have eased, but a lack of customer demand before Christmas has exaggerated price drops. Canada's long bond yield climbed to a three-week high. Until last week, the yield had been falling as bonds rallied after the uncertainty over Quebec's provincial election faded and some capital shifted from bearish stock markets. Canada's benchmark 30-year bond due June 1, 2027, seesawing in a thin market, ended down C$0.36 to C$139.41, yielding 5.300 percent. The U.S. 30-year bond slumped 26/32 to yield 5.192 percent. The Canada-U.S. yield spread has gradually, but constantly, narrowed to 11 basis points from 14 at the previous close. This indicates that the U.S. bond has been weakening faster in pre-holiday trade and the risk premium on holding Canadian bonds has shrunk from the peak of the global market shake-up. The Toronto Bond Traders' Association recommends that Canadian bond trading finish at 1200 EST/1700 GMT on Thursday ahead of public and market holidays in Canada. Friday is Christmas and Monday is Boxing Day. This week North American bonds had also been hurt briefly by weekend news that President Clinton was impeached and could be removed from office, but that fear has been alleviated now that odds for ensuring the president have surfaced. Oilpatch set for wild and woolly '99, say analysts It'll be the law of the jungle in the 1999 oilpatch as low commodity prices and a stumbling world economy put the bite on cash flows. "1999 will see the further continuation of the process of natural selection," said Alberta Energy president Gwyn Morgan, whose company swallowed up debt-ridden Amber Energy Inc. in 1998. "The strong will get stronger and the weak will disappear." The last year -- with its meltdown of world oil prices and rash of multinational mega-mergers -- was a good warmup for the Canadian patch. Exploration budgets are being slashed and some layoffs have already occurred, with more in the pipe if oil stays depressed. Oil giants Mobil and Exxon announced their marriage plans in 1998. Exxon's Canadian subsidary, Imperial Oil Ltd., is likely to buy up Calgary-based Mobil Canada as part of the monstrous $76-billion US merger. That deal followed the marriage of British Petroleum and Chicago-based Amoco in a $52-billion US deal. Royal Dutch Shell, reported to be looking for merger partner, recently announced a dramatic cut in capital spending and major company reorganization. "It's going to be a wild 1999," predicted David Street, an oil and gas analyst with Calgary's Griffiths McBurney & Partners. Oil prices sank to near historic lows as 1998 came to a close, falling below $11 US a barrel for the first time since 1986. David Manning of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers concedes his industry will look a little different in 1999. "The good news is that this industry is in much better shape and has a much better understanding (of how to survive) than it did when we went through these price scenarios 10 years ago," Manning said. "We're a lot leaner. The upstream oil and gas industry got to the restructuring business before any other in Canada." Natural gas prices were strong throughout most of 1998, which helped keep drilling rigs working in Alberta -- although at a reduced rate from the boom years of 1996 and 1997, when $20-plus US oil spurred record exploration. As the year ended, gas prices dipped below $2 per thousand cubic feet due to unseasonably warm weather in big U.S. markets. Street expects fewer wells to be drilled in 1999 and the focus to be on gas. "Natural gas on the NYMEX should average around $2.20 per thousand cubic feet and Alberta spot (price) 20 cents higher," he said. "For crude we're maintaing a 1999 price of about $15 US a barrel, because basically we don't buy the global recession scenario. "There is a slowdown and while we won't have the same level of growth, there will be some growth in demand." The gas sector saw its biggest shakeup in years in 1998 with the $14-billion merger of Nova Corp. and TransCanada PipeLines Ltd. and the approval of competitor Alliance's $2-billion pipeline. "It's going to be a tough year and the strong are going to come out stronger, while the weaker are going to get taken out," said Street. Street said the new pipeline -- running from northeastern B.C. to Chicago -- will radically alter the natural gas industry, introducing for the first time true competition as producers get an alternative way of moving gas from to hungry U.S. markets. In the meantime, companies that are either carrying too much debt or wallowing in oil assets are becoming tasty takeover targets or candidates for bankruptcy. "There will be some rationalizations, but I don't think we're going to see the big panic and the blood on the streets that we saw last time (1986)," Street said. Instead of slashing jobs, companies now jettison non-core assets to generate internal cash flows. Petro-Canada, for example, moved in early December to sell ICG Propane Ltd. to Superior Propane for $175 million. Later the same day, the former Crown corporation sold its downtown Calgary office complex, realizing a $12-million gain and dumping $140 million in long-term debt. Rick Roberge, a senior partner at Price Waterhouse, believes companies will hunker down in 1999. "This has been one of the longest periods ever of oil below $15 a barrel," said Roberge. "And if natural gas goes in the tank, there'll be lot of people looking for the window." The Petroleum Services Association of Canada anticipates about 9,900 wells will be drilled in 1999, more than half of them gas. That figure is a little rosier than the one Roberge envisions. "When people did their budgets and forecasts for '99, everybody had $15 oil in mind. But $15 now seems like a bit of a pipedream."

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14514)	12/24/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15196

CANADIAN MARKET WRAP -2 / Day Ending Wednesday 12/23/98 Investors High On QLT Stock U.S. clearance for wider use of company's Photofrin light-therapy drug gives shares a buzz Shares of QLT PhotoTherapeutics Inc. have taken legs after its Photofrin light-therapy drug won U.S. Food and Drug Administration clearance yesterday for wider use in lung cancer patients to help reduce pain and airway obstruction. Last year, the drug and laser light combination was approved by the FDA for a narrow use in treating early stage lung cancer when other treatments weren't feasible. Shares of the Vancouver company soared almost 10 per cent or $3.05 to $33.90 on the Toronto Stock Exchange after the FDA news yesterday. The stock has jumped more than 40 per cent since the beginning of November. It hit a record high of $38 in February, 1997. The wider approval could double the market for the novel drug, analysts say. Photofrin is used along with a low-intensity laser made by Laserscope Inc. of San Jose, Calif. QLT was already riding high after Warburg Dillon Read issued a report featuring bullish comments on a drug QLT is testing to treat age related macular degeneration, which impairs eyesight. Investment banker Warburg issued a "strong buy" recommendation on Novartis AG of Switzerland, whose unit CIBA Vision of Atlanta is QLT's partner in developing verteporfin, known as BPD. The results of the drug's Phase III clinical trials are due to be released in the first quarter of 1999. Macular degeneration is a leading cause of blindness among people over 50. The disease occurs when new blood vessels grow toward the macula, a very small area of the retina that is responsible for central vision. Warburg described BPD as "very promising" and said the new drug offers revenue potential of more than $800-million (U.S.). QLT is developing proprietary pharmaceutical products for so-called photodynamic therapy, which uses a laser light to activate the drugs and treat the disease. Warburg said BPD should enjoy rapid growth because the procedure can be rapidly performed -- 20 to 30 minutes -- by eye physicians who have become generally accustomed to applying laser therapy in their daily practice. The potential market for BPD was estimated at about 1.5 million people with the disease worldwide when the drug is introduced, likely in early 2000. The Warburg report cautioned, however, that the early sharp liftoff in sales could ease somewhat after the first few years as the patient pool gradually narrows to new cases of macular degeneration. QLT shares slumped over the summer because Photofrin continued to post disappointing sales. Analysts said the drug was hampered by the newness of its technology. Also, a side effect of the drug was that patients became very light sensitive. Some analysts believe that BPD will be the driver of QLT's sales and profit -- and the share price. "That's where all the interest and potential is," said Ezra Lwowski, a Toronto-based analyst who follows the company for Yorkton Securities Inc. He said all developments to date point to successful final trials on BPD, allowing the company to post higher earnings once the drug is on the market. Yorkton had a target price of $30 (Canadian) for QLT shares, but the stock has sailed through that marker and Mr. Lwowski is not ready to flash a "sell" recommendation yet, preferring to ride the upward momentum stirred by the latest developments. He noted that the company's Photofrin's sales should be stimulated by the latest U.S. approval for wide use. QLT shares could ultimately drop to "fair value" of $30 a share, he said, indicating that the valuation reflects projections that QLT will earn 25 cents a share in 2001 -- its first profit -- and $1.77 a share in 2002. Investing in biotechnology shares involves risk any time a drug is still being developed, but that risk is reduced when a company is as far along in the approval process as QLT, he said. Michael Lorimer who follows health care stocks for Scotia Capital Markets, told clients that photodynamic therapy is one of the most promising new therapeutic techniques in medicine and QLT is a leader in the field. In an earlier report, ScotiaMcLeod estimated the global market for BPD at $1.3-billion. Mr. Lorimer continues to carry a "buy" billing on the stock with a one-year price target of $36. The shares, he said, could move above $40 if the final clinical trial data for BPD are rosy, but the shares could decline if the data fail to meet investor assumptions. QLT's new photodynamic eye therapy drug is competing with a product being developed by U.S.-based Miravant Medical Technology, he said. "In our view, Miravant is two years behind QLT." Under a profit-sharing arrangement with Novartis, QLT is going to get 35 cents of every $1 of sales of the new drug to the medical community, Mr. Lorimer said, describing the deal as "above average." Another analyst, Viren Mehta of New York-based Mehta Partners, said it's "comforting" that BPD has been licenced by Novartis, but QLT's shares are "fully valued" at current price levels. In the third quarter, QLT reported a wider loss as research and development spending jumped from $ to $5.9-million from the same quarter of 1997. The red ink ran to $6.4-million, compared with $3.7-million a year earlier, while revenue was $1.9-million, down from $2.6-million. QLT PhotoTherapeutics Inc.: Vital statistics Head office: Vancouver TSE symbol: QLT Business: Develops pharmaceutical products and applications that use light-activated drugs for treatment of cancer, eye diseases and other conditions Share values Trailing 12-month earnings a share -81¢ 52-week high $33.90 / 52-week low $16.00 Last close $33.90 / Change from previous +$3.05 1-year total return 108.62% / 59-month average return 18.07% Top mutual fund holdings % of total market value, as of Sept. 30 Navigator Canadian Technology 3.9 Cognos Stock Soars On Strong Web-Based Sales Wednesday, December 23, 1998 Simon Tuck - Technology Reporter Globe & Mail Cognos Inc. hopped a ride on the Internet craze as its share price soared $6.90 or 25.5 per cent Tuesday and added another $1.80 Wednesday after the software company revealed surging sales of its Web-based programs. Late Monday, Cognos said strong sales of its Web-based intelligence software helped push its profit up 23 per cent in its third quarter. The Ottawa software company also said sales of such computer programs could account for half of its sales in that area in the fourth quarter, up from one-third in the third quarter. Analysts were pointing to the numbers as evidence of a comeback for Cognos, whose stock has languished since the fall of 1997, when the company warned that sales and profit would slow because its customers were confused about the impact of the Internet. Some analysts say the company, which leads its key business intelligence market with a 24-per-cent share, now appears to have secured its lead over its major rival, Business Objects SA of France, at least for moment. "They're now well ahead of the competition," said Howard Lis, a technology analyst at Griffiths McBurney and Partners Inc. in Toronto. Business intelligence software allows employees to retrieve and analyze information in a corporate data base. Cognos shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange are still a far cry from their 52-week high of $43.25, which was achieved in early April. The company posted $76.3-million in revenue during the third quarter, a 23-per-cent increase from a year earlier and its best figure so far. Its earnings, $15.9-million or 36 cents a share, topped analysts' estimates by 1 cent. At least three analysts -- two in Canada and one in the United States -- responded by raising their recommendations. For Cognos, this latest step along the comeback trail has been taken only 15 months after its share price was slashed 32 per cent in a single day on Sept. 25, 1997, largely over concern about the company's ability to keep up to rivals with Web-based software and worries about customers delaying purchases as they mulled over the new products. Those questions appear to have been answered, analysts say. Cognos's newer Web-based business intelligence tools now make up about one-third of the revenue from that product line, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the company's total sales. The quick transition to the Internet has encouraged analysts to accept the company's claim that the Web-based version will make up about half of its business intelligence revenue by the next quarter. Like fellow Canadian software makers Open Text Corp. of Waterloo, Ont., and JetForm Corp. of Ottawa, analysts say, Cognos is demonstrating that the big money in the world of electronic commerce -- contrary to the hype -- is likely to come from selling to corporations, not consumers. Mark Pavan, a technology analyst at Yorkton Securities Inc. in Toronto, said the corporate market will "dwarf" the consumer market as Internet-based commerce matures, despite all the attention garnered by electronic shopping. "The real Internet opportunity, which is companies making themselves more efficient through Internet technology, is in the long term much more important than the high-profile Internet commerce we see now," Mr. Pavan said. Almost all of the big software companies in Canada that have had any success are all trying to do the same thing, that is concentrate on the corporate market, he said. But these software companies working in the corporate market shouldn't be viewed as Internet companies in the same sense as the E-commerce retailers who have been riding the "speculative Internet bubble," Mr. Pavan said. Unlike many companies whose stock has soared on the basis of retail commerce on the Internet, these companies have substantial revenue, he said. Other analysts say Cognos stock soared primarily because Cognos's slowing of growth last year proved to be a mere blip, not the start of a downward trend. "[The results] just gave people a lot more confidence," said Duncan Stewart, a portfolio manager at Tera Capital Corp. in Toronto. But he said that Cognos, while ahead of Business Objects in market share, is still growing more slowly that its French rival. "The numbers were good but they weren't as good as Business Objects'. [The Internet] is what you've got to do these days." Despite the apparent comeback, however, Cognos is not out of the woods. There's still concern that the company's market share lead is slipping and that software giants Microsoft Corp. and Oracle Corp. will also increase their focus on the lucrative business intelligence market. Alan Rottenberg, Cognos's senior vice-president, said that's nothing new. "The market's always competitive. There's always been somebody who's supposed to catch us." Corel, Philip top contenders for best, worst on TSE 300 With just a handful of trading days left to go, Corel Corp. is the early favourite to take top-performance honors among Toronto Stock Exchange 300 companies this year, while beleaguered Philip Services Corp. looks set to wear the goat horns. The list of winners is dominated by technology companies, including a couple of former stock market stars like Corel that have forged a comeback this year. Not surprisingly, the list of market mongrels is dominated by resource companies -- mining and oil outfits that have hit rough times as commodity prices crumbled and the investors' appetite for higher-risk junior plays wanes. Companies with higher-risk international operations have been singled out for punishment by investors. As measured by percentage gain, Corel has now increased 154.4 per cent so far this year, well ahead of second-best TLC The Laser Center, which is up an impressive 142.6 per cent. Corel, which was flirting with penny stock status just a few months ago, is riding a wave of renewed investor enthusiasm as it shows signs of turning around after a disastrous few years. The Ottawa-based software company's shares have surged from a low of $1.70 on Sept. 1 to close at $5.85 yesterday. In September, the company posted its first operating profit in eight quarters, recovering from an ill-fated attempt to take on software giant Microsoft Corp. in the office suite market. Other notables among the high fliers include: CGI Group Inc.: The Montreal-based company's shares have been on fire this year thanks to a rapidly expanding bottom line. CGI, Canada's largest information technology services company, earned $34.8-million for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, up 349 per cent from the prior year. The stock closed at $27.95 yesterday, up from $11.50 a year ago. Teleglobe Inc.: The Montreal-based international long-distance phone carrier outfit has been pleasantly surprising investors with its financial results, most recently with a robust third quarter. Teleglobe, whose monopoly over international calls in and out of Canada ended in October, is looking for more growth from its recent merger with U.S. long-distance carrier Excel Communications Inc. The stock closed at $51.50, up from around $20 at the beginning of the year. Rogers Communications Inc.: Like Corel, Toronto-based Rogers has enjoyed a bit of a rehabilitation after languishing in market purgatory for a spell. Canada's largest cable and wireless phone outfit has been buoyed by signs of a turnaround in its mobile phone unit. The stock closed at $12.95 yesterday, better than double its 52-week low of $5.50 on Jan. 21. ATI Technologies Inc.: The Markham, Ont.-based computer graphics equipment maker has become one of the market darlings of the Canadian technology set. Galloping growth helped garner chief executive officer K.Y. Ho entrepreneur of the year honours from Ernst & Young. The stockhas eased back in recent weeks, closing at $16.15 yesterday, down from its 52-week high of $19.65 in June. Notables among the TSE's flameout stocks include: Philip Services: Pretty much everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Philip this year. The stock -- which traded as high as $27.80 in June, 1997 -- has dropped 97.6 per cent to close at 50 cents yesterday. The Hamilton company has been sandbagged by a copper trading scandal, weakness in the scrap metal market and big writedowns of good will. Philip is currently working on a plan to restructure $1.1-billion of debt. Fracmaster Ltd.: Weak oil prices and economic turmoil in Russia have dealt a double blow to the Calgary-based oil field services company, whose stock has slumped to $2.90 from a high of $24.50 in May. Hurricane Hydrocarbons Ltd.: Another energy outfit that's stumbled overseas. Calgary-based Hurricane, whose stock traded for as high as $12 in January, has been hampered by low crude prices and a continuing dispute with the refinery that processes oil from its Kazakstan operations. It closed yesterday at $1.84. Com Dev International Ltd.: This year has been a tough one for the microwave communications component marker, whose stock has tumbled to $6.55 from highs of $30.50 in January. The Cambridge Ont.-based company has been hurt by problems at its British operations that led to a $14.8-million charge against earnings in the fiscal year ended Oct. 31. Including the charge, Com Dev lost $18.4-million, compared with a profit of $18.3-million in the previous year. THE BEST AND WORST Top per cent gainers and losers on the TSE 300 so far this year. GAINERS +154.4 .....Corel Corp +142.6 .....TLC The Laser Center +139.9 .....CGI Group Inc +136.8 .....Teleglobe Inc +126.3 .....Shaw Communications B +106.3 .....Meridian Gold + 98.8 .....Jean Coutu Group A + 95.2 .....ATI Technologies + 92.8 .....QLT Phototherapeutics + 87.7 .....Rogers Communications B LOSERS - 77.5 .....Remington Energy - 77.9 .....Greenstone Resources - 78.5 .....Com Dev International - 80.0 .....Abacan Resource - 83.4 .....Hurricane Hydro A - 84.7 .....Reserve Royalty - 86.1 .....Dayton Mining - 86.2 .....Fracmaster Ltd. - 91.6 .....Lytton Minerals - 97.6 .....Philip Services Source: Bloomberg Financial Services No Glad Tidings For Canadian Miners Stale metals market: Junior explorers still suffering from post Bre-X jitters Keith Damsell - Financial Post The front-page banner of First Marathon Securities Ltd.'s December metalsiand mining digest says it all: Where are the glad tidings? The past 12 months have been grim for the mining sector and there are dire predictions 1999 won't be much better. Asia's economic crisis shows no signs of letting up and there is increasing concern growth rates in Europe and North America will slow in the new year. "The mood in the world's commodity markets has turned ugly," notes the 23-page report. Metal prices are in at mess. Demand has slipped while production and inventories have climbed. Nickel and copper hover near 11-year lows, and gold continues to resist the psychological barrier of $300 (US) an ounce. Stock prices reflect the depressed state of the miners. Major institutions have fled the sector, leaving small retail investors with the volatile stocks. The Toronto Stock Exchange metalsg & minerals subindex has slumped 19% this year while the TSE 300 composite index has fallen 4%. The exchange's gold & precious metals subindex has rallied about 40% since Aug. 31 but still remains 7% lower than its close at the end of 1997. The junior exploration market continues to suffer post Bre-X jitters. The exploration-heavy Vancouver Stock Exchange composite index has lost about 40% of its value over thet past 12 months. It is unlikely metal prices will recover any time soon. Many analysts are forecasting a stale metals market for at least the next six months. There is some hope gold may climb to $310 (US) an ounce in the new year. "For sustainable change, you need the cycle of metals prices to change," said Dorothy Atkinson, analyst at Vancouver's IPO Capital Ltd. "The big money is waiting on the sidelines for resources to look interesting again." Not surprisingly, investors are advised to take a long-term approach and bet on undervalued performers that would benefit the most when the sector brightens. On the junior side, Ms. Atkinson favours solid exploration firms with advanced properties that have yet to be fully valued. Her picks for 1999 include Madison Enterprises Corp., a Vancouver junior with "a very interesting gold deposit" in Papua New Guinea, and Vancouver-based Western Copper Holdings Ltd., a mixed metals company with good prospects across North and Central America. Madison shares (MNP/VSE) fell 5¢ Tuesday to close at $1.95, while Western Copper (WTC/TSE) gained 5¢ to $2.20. The junior of choice for many is small gold producer Manhattan Minerals Corp. It is seeking Peru's approval to further develop the Tambo Grande property. At least three analysts are betting the project could lead to a base metals mine and are maintaining "speculative buy" ratings. In trading Tuesday, Manhattan (MAN/TSE) was down 10¢ to $2.70.f Investors are advised to avoid juniors exploring politically unstable corners of the globe. Those pursuing fortunes in Africa, the former Soviet Union, and much of Asia are flirting with more danger in an already unstable environment. "There's enough risk now without political turmoil or some convoluted bureaucratic process to wrap you up," said Andrew Muir, analyst at Vancouver's Canaccord Capital Corp. Most gold seniors have performed well since hitting lows ini August. With a gainiof 43%, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX/TSE) has led the pack, rising from aa low of $20.35 on Aug. 31 to close yesterday at 28.70, down 70¢. But until gold breaks the $300 (US) an ounce barrier, enthusiasm for further stock priced gains is muted. "Better values can be had in the relatively undervalued mid-cap producer sector," notes Michael Jalonen, analyst at Toronto's Merrill Lynch & Co. in a Dec. 3 report. One exception is Euro-Nevada Mining Corp. The Toronto based royalty company "continues to have all the growth attributes we look for," notes John Lydall, First Marathon analyst. Its operations traditionally outperform expectations, including the low-cost Rosebud mine in Nevada. In trading Tuesday, the shares (en/tse) were down 20¢ to $24.65. A perennial favourite of analysts is small producer Meridian Gold Inc. of Reno, Nev. Mines in Idaho and Nevada generate about 200,000 ounces annually and production will more than double in 2000 when the Elb Penon mine in Chile begins operations. Meridian shares (MNG/TSE) closed the day unchanged at $18.25. Base metals watchers are hoping the sector has bottomed out and are forecasting a slow recovery in late 1999. Two major producers that have locked up future low-cost production are winning the best reviews: Vancouver's Cominco Ltd. and Falconbridge Ltd. of Toronto. Cominco's new Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska is "built and running ... when prices improve, the leverage is there," said David Kellar, analyst at Griffiths McBurney & Partners of Toronto. Cominco shares (CLT/TSE) fell 25¢ to $17.50. Falconbridge, meanwhile, "can tighten down the hatches and generate some free cash flow" from northern Quebec's Raglan nickel-copper mine and the Collahuasi copper project in Chile, said David Davidson of Newcrest Capital Inc. in Toronto. The shares (FL/TSE) rose 25¢ Tuesday to $16.30. Watch Out For Figures That Mislead It may be true that numbers never lie, but every now and then you might catch them exaggerating. Just take a look back at the 1998 Wall Street stock market and all the commotion it has caused. Seven of the 10 biggest daily point declines in the history of the Dow Jones industrial average, dating back more than a century, occurred in 1998. No wonder the headlines proclaimed "Crash!" and "Worldwide Financial Crisis." In August alone, the Dow suffered losses of 299.43 points on the 4th, 357.36 points on the 27th, and 512.61 points on the 31st! Yet somehow the market came through the year in decent shape. If you use percentage change, rather than raw numbers, as a gauge, not one of those individual trading sessions made the list of the 10 worst ever -- all of which were seven per cent or more. As of mid-December, the biggest percentage drop in 1998 was 6.4 per cent on Aug. 31. That certainly qualified as a chilling experience, but it couldn't hold a candle to the 22.6 per cent plunge on Oct. 19, 1987, or the consecutive losses of 12.8 per cent and 11.7 per cent on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29 of 1929, a market plunge that led to the Great Depression. To keep your emotional balance in the modern markets, with all the instant means of communications extending out from them, you have to keep reminding yourself that today's numbers aren't directly comparable to those of generations past. "It is important to keep market drops in perspective," notes the mutual fund firm of American Century Investments, in a recently published booklet entitled Taming a Bear Market: Investment Strategies for Turbulent Times. "A decade ago, when the Dow Jones industrial average was around 2,000, a 100-point drop represented a five per cent loss. But when the Dow hovers around 8,000, a 100-point drop represents a loss of about 1.25 per cent, and can often be recovered the next day." That's precisely what happened early last week, when the Dow fell 126.16 points one day and rebounded 127.70 points the next. Indeed, the Dow has weathered seven single-day losses of 200 points or more in 1998 to show a net gain of better than 10 per cent heading into the last few sessions of the year. But let's not stretch the point too far the other way, either. The last year has produced more than its share of excitement, by comparison with the trend of recent years. Edward Kerschner, chairman of the investment policy committee at PaineWebber Inc., calculated recently that the average daily price change for the Dow this year has been 0.92 per cent, against an average since 1940 of 0.6 per cent and an average since 1970 of 0.69 per cent. "At current market levels (9,000), the average daily Dow Jones average point change is expected to be about 60 points," Kerschner wrote recently. "Also expect one day per week to hit the 150-point mark! "However, recent long-term averages of absolute daily price changes are not at notably high levels," he went on to say. "Hence, we have not entered a new paradigm of higher volatility -- rather merely a normal oscillation around the short-term average." If the historical record holds, Kerschner says, "volatility for the 12-month period following periods of extreme volatility is a return to normal volatility." While we're looking at past precedents, does a stormy spell in the market have any predictive value regarding the subsequent course, up or down, of stock prices? Alas, says Kerschner, the charts show no consistent patterns, and "the answer appears to be no."