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To: Ruffian who wrote (20383)	12/24/1998 12:09:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

O.T. - I cannot resist blabbing (quickly) about my thoughts on the Federal Reserve and their current "posture" regarding setting short-term interest rates. Here is the "meat" of the release (today) of what the Fed was thinking on 11/17/98 : The central bank on Nov. 17 also changed its policy directive to neutral, meaning it was as likely to raise rates as lower them in the near future. The policy directive had been one towards easing monetary policy. According to the minutes, the committee believed that "further easing was not likely to be needed over the months ahead unless ongoing developments pointed to a more substantial decline in the growth of economic activity or further ebbing of inflation than was currently anticipated." My prediction (backed also with my own "real money") -- the Fed will be "amazed and surprised" when they realize that the U.S. economy is sinking fast -- right now, and will cut rates a lot in 1999. Jon.