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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (35659)	12/24/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: Tom M	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Gersh, thanks for your input on the personal savings figures, all opinions welcome. Guess I did forget to put a BWDIK in there :-) At any rate, I'm certainly not using that alone, but I do think it's happening in my observations, especially with some of the credit card figures I've read. And from browsing threads, I do get the feeling there are many people with everything in the market and more (margin), and I've seen people explaining how they play one credit card advance against the other to feed their habit. This doesn't give me the feeling they have any savings. Greenspan has created much exuberant confidence. For the record I'm neither perma-bull nor perma-bear, and have taken some nice longterm gains this week. However I haven't shorted since this spring as I believe the concept that bulls and bears are on an equal playing field is a very proven farce. I started out as an investor a few years ago when fundamentals mattered, and started trading out of necessity when the market seemed to start losing its mind. I'd love to be able to "invest" again when our market's not held up by hundred+ point/week gains in the internets et al, surprise Fed rate cuts, & Clinton's amazingly handy event timing. Kind of between a rock and a hard place when the gov't fries shorts while in a historic bubble mania. Pure Ponzi - headed for Japan meltdown when these people ever sit down and think about just what that piece of paper is they bought. As they probably don't know or don't care, they'll probably have to be "told" via the media as usual. During and since our last meltdown, we haven't been "told" yet how bad things are. The pros weren't properly positioned for the event, as evidenced by LTCM. One player caused the Fed to cut rates three times to keep the house of cards from falling. Now, the players that matter have had months to bring the market back and regain their profits. We've also had Latin America deteriorate & many serious earnings warnings since then. I get the feeling that when we go down next time, the big players won't be so unfortunately positioned as to not profit. This time, the media/players may even "tell" us how bad it is! Doesn't give me the confidence to "invest" when I see the morality of the market (yes I know that's oxymoronic) degrade as fast as Clinton's, via events like Oppenheimer (sp?) setting a $400 target for AMZN. Unfortunately I'm one of those people with a conscience (recovering catholic) and I have zero confidence in the "new era". I will invest if we return to the "old era" however (won't happen with Clinton?). Guess I just think too much like my old man, he'd be proud. Happy Holidays! Tom