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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (772)	12/24/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Chuzzlewit, Here's a non-argumentative post, so you can take a deep breath <G>.... And I encourage the thread to not let this get too vitriolic, or let it deteriorate into ad hominem attacks. (I've enjoyed the debate, but personal attacks are starting to crop up.) You mention from your posts, and I'm paraphrasing (and correct me if I'm wrong), is that your primary disagreement with investing per Buffettology is that it doesn't value hypergrowth well. I can accept that - based in the premise that Buffett stresses predictability over higher risk stocks - especially in technology - that may have more potential (both upside and downside). This dichotomy perhaps represents an irreconcilable difference in the investement methods. Re: DELL. I don't have an opinion on the stock, but I've been reading the "Ask Michael Burke" thread quite a bit (the thread is currently bearish on tech), and one the theme's that is emerging is that this is the year that PC growth is going to hit the wall. Sources indicate the retail channell is full, and corporate buyers are considerably reigning in spending. The market may not grow at 15% going forward, and some are predicting nearly flat yr/yr revenue growth given the falling ASPs and slowing unit growth. Many retailers are reporting very weak sales this Christmas (Ingram Micro the most recent to report), and I have concerns if the direct channel will be able to buck the trend. In particular, Compaq seems to have flooded the market, and the industry could have a considerable glut. Anyhow, this is the fear I have in investing in the boxmakers right now. I would be interested in hearing who you thinks benefits from the coming glut (my opinion) in cheap PCs? To me it seems there will be huge growth coming from the trend toward a PC in every home. MSFT clearly is a winner, but I think they're too expensive as an investment right now. Who else do you see benefiting the trend to cheap PCs? Thanks for you comments here. They've helped make for an interesting Christmas Eve. Shane

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (772)	12/24/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Fredman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Which in turn, raises the question: Are you buying stock in companies to draw on a decent, consistent Dividend ? or are you buy stock in companies in which you want to (hopefully) watch the price of the stock go up so you can sell at a nice profit ? (be a trader). It seems today you simply cannot have it both ways with AFFORDABLE stocks (my definition is a stock under $40.00/share). And even those above 40 is somewhat limited. My HO is, if you have some cash to put away for a LONG while, by an Oil and forget about it. They will be back. They ALWAYS do come back. The Arabs aren't liking this one bit, and if you think it will last a lot longer, i think people are kidding themselves........ IMHO, of course.