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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (880)	12/31/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 1301

Hi Z_Analyzer, TNT has some problems. In an article I read about 3 weeks ago, it said that TNT is basically being used for its cash flow by the city it is based in. This is not to say that it is worthless or anything because most Russian oil companies have domestic expenses for the towns they are based in. But TNT apparently has taken on some debt more for the town than the company. I would stick to the blue chips. LUKOY is still looking good. It was mentioned by the Lexington Trioka Dialog mutual fund manager as having great management. Also, oil prices seem to have bounced a little recently. 1999 could bring the rebound we need. The WSJ had an article today that basically said that western investors were surprised by the fact that Primakov has actually brought stability to Russia. It appears that because he was/is a "communist" that everybody thought he would go back to a command economy. The article goes on to say he has not done much for the economy. I tend to differ on that. I think that people are forgetting the alcohol monopoly the fact that the most austere budget in Russia's history has already passed on the first reading in the Duma. The article does go on to talk about how the economy will get worse, but again I disagree. Russia is like a bankrupt company that has emerged from bankruptcy. The cash flow for debt payment will be much reduced thanks to the domestic and foreign debt restructurings. If oil prices get back to 1997 levels, Russia could very well start growing again. 1999 will most likely be much better. It almost can't get any worse!!