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Strategies & Market Trends : Grain Futures Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Baca who wrote (374)	12/24/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: nicewatch	Respond to of 645

Hi Jay, I WAS long march cotton from last week until yesterday. I lucked out with a gap up on the open Wedesday, which I immediately sold into (minimizing my loss to about .60 points). I also doubled up on the short side when I sold my one long... I closed one short yesterday near the close, and the second this morning.... I am now flat and positionless. Luckily enough, I complemented a kind of sour trade with a super sweet one. To add to that, I was busy during most of the trading day, so I only saw the first 35 minutes, and the last 35 minutes of the cotton action. As I said before, Santa visited me two days early this year. <g> You are right about the trend being down... for now at least. My buy signal came from a method that picks tops and bottoms... it obviously didn't work out this time. I knew by the close Tuesday that my long was bad and needed to get out. It was dumb luck, for me, that cotton gapped up on wedesday... it could just have easily gapped down. I still think cotton is closer to a bottom than a top. Time will tell, but my work suggests that if the cotton bear ends in the next few weeks to 1.5 months, a sizeable rally could develop by 5/99.... BWDIK. If I'm wrong about the bear ending, the chart tells me that this will probably continue to accelerate in its downward spiral. Perhaps hogs would be a good example of a bear market that accelerates into its low. Also, the cotton bear of 1986 warrants study... I think cash cotton got down to low-mid 20 cents area in a very swift V-type move. FWIW, talk to you later. HAPPY HOLIDAYS! Regards, Frank