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To: bob zagorin who wrote (1229)1/4/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1354
 
Bob,

Got a copy of the ERP issue. My problem is one of timing. Why now?

You could have made 5 times your money in PSFT by recognizing the growing market BEFORE it became so mainstream and competive. He's talking about ERP as if it's something new, while I was working on SAP implementations 3 years ago, when the market -- AND EVERYBODY CLOSE TO IT -- was growing 100% per year or more.

OK, they're beaten down, they're a good buy again. But there were some GREAT investments three years ago too. He just wasn't looking at where commercial software was going. Too absorbed PC-hardware related stuff I guess.

Personally, I wish he'd narrow his focus again. When he started, "technology" could be covered entirely by one or two people and he did well, getting to really know everything. Now it would take dozens of people to adequately cover all the different facets of it, and the result is that we get a lot of off-the-cuff and disconnected analysis of loosely related markets by a couple of individuals who don't have the time or resources to adequately cover it all.

Not that he's necessarily unique. A lot of Wall Street analysts try to cover more markets than they can probably know in detail. But the point of a specialized newsletter should be to cover one or two things well, and leave the rest to somebody else. Even Wall Street rarely has one guy trying to comprehend both semiconductors and commercial software...

mg