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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (3033)	12/25/1998 6:05:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

UN Y2k meeting un.org ___ The number of delegates for each country might be an indicator of how serious a country takes Y2k... un.org ___ Shipping industry: un.org ' The potential for disruptions in the international maritime industry and in the ports due to Y2K related problems might well have been underestimated up until now, particularly for the industrialized nations. Taking the U.S. as an example, 95% of the cargo that enters the country comes via the maritime environment. 50% of the oil consumed in the United States is brought in to the ports by ships, 97% of which are foreign vessels. Other strategic resources enter the country in the same way. Serious disruptions in this sector could have major repercussions in world economies.' _____ A GLOBAL VIEW (PARTIAL) OF THE YEAR 2000 CRISIS DR. HOWARD A. RUBIN un.org

To: John Mansfield who wrote (3033)	12/25/1998 6:21:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Ed Yourdon on the UN Y2k meeting: ' Since you've mentioned "banking on disaster" and "deflating the financial market", I thought you might be interested in the perspective from a consortium of global banks known as the Global 2000 Coordinating Group (Global 2000). The excerpt below is taken from the report presented to the United Nations Y2K conference on Dec 11, 1998; you can read the entire report at un.org globale.htm . Global 2000, which was formed in March 1998, currently includes 488 participants from 234 institutions and associations representing 46 countries; the activities of Global 2000 are guided by a Steering Committee of 35 individuals from 21 countries. The overall assessment of the Y2K situation by Global 2000 group is fairly sobering, as can be seen from the text of their report: "The time to resolve the problem is now extremely limited and the level of awareness of the problem remains at a relatively low level in many countries. There is no expert involved in the field who believes that the problems can all be satisfactorily resolved in the time remaining, and in some cases it is already clear that the problem is simply not going to be adequately addressed. For example, in Russia it is already clear that there is no prospect of the Year 2000 problem being solved. It is therefore essential that the international financial industry is able to identify and focus resources on those areas where the risk is highest in order to facilitate progress where possible as well as to plan for the inevitable failures that will occur. "The risks associated with the Year 2000 problem for financial markets are difficult to predict. As yet the problem does not appear to have been a significant factor in decision making. However as the Year 2000 approaches, it is likely that market participants will increasingly factor Year 2000 considerations into their decision making. This may result in the withdrawal of credit lines or to a loss of confidence in markets where there are concerns or inadequate information about the progress that is being made. Market behaviour of this type, which could appear well ahead of the actual Year 2000 date change, would significantly exacerbate the problems of the Year 2000 issue. "The period around the Year 2000 date change is likely to be characterised by a significantly heightened level of concern about the implications of the millennium problem, with a significant risk that behaviour patterns will change in a way that may be difficult to predict. Central banks are already planning to have additional banknotes available to meet potential increases in demand. Other changes in behavioural patterns such as pre- millennium stockpiling may result in additional calls on the financial system. As a result, the management of public perceptions and expectations will assume an increasingly important role in the run up to the year-end. "The probability of at least some millennium related problems emerging will place a significant premium on the financial system's crisis management capabilities. Confidence in the system will be significantly affected by the way in which the system identifies and responds to these issues as they arise. This will place a high premium on information sharing and co-ordinated decision making between regulators and the private sector to an extent that has not previously been required. "Whilst it is not possible draw any clear conclusion as to the overall impact of the Year 2000 issue, the prudent view at this stage has to be that this issue poses significant prospective systemic risk to the international financial system in the course of the next fifteen months." It's particularly interesting to me that the industry generally regarded as having made the most progress with Y2K remediation — i.e., banking and finance — remains the one most concerned about the possible impact of Y2K disruptions. In any case, given the level of concern expressed by the financial community, it's interesting to ask what the Global 2000 group intends to do in the remaining year before 1 January 2000. In its report, the group identified its priorities as follows: "With only 385 days remaining, the Group plans to focus its future efforts on identifying those areas where the relative highest risks to the financial services industry reside. The actions will include systematic identification of specific regions, countries, cities, industries, infrastructure components and individual companies posing significant potential threats to the global markets. The aim is to publicise these concerns and to encourage, through various means available, actions designed to contain and/or reduce the specific Y2K risks. The emphasis will be in four areas v testing v assessing and disclosing risks v seeking out collective actions for mitigating risks, and v preparing for the unexpected events - crisis management "In terms of communication, it is the belief of Global 2000 that an informed public will be a prepared public. Individuals who have access to good information will make good decisions and the entire society will benefit. Conversely, a lack of information is fertile ground for panic when and if unexpected events take place. There is an urgent need to publicly disseminate factual information about what can be expected as the clock roles forward into 1999 and 2000 and beyond. The time to assess the Y2K event is now. It is the responsibility of both industry and government to disseminate factual information about what is likely to occur as the clock roles forward. If there is a 10% chance or a 50% chance of a failure of a mission critical system in a public utility, then the public should know that now rather than later. If the public feels a need to stockpile based upon their individual needs, then it is better that they begin to stockpile in January 1999 than in December 1999. It is now time to communicate the known facts as widely as possible in a systematic and professional manner. For its part, Global 2000 will develop an information clearinghouse to share key Year 2000 information with its contact and the public." BTW, there are also reports from the telecommunications sector, the oil & gas sector, electric power, air transportation, and maritime/port sector, all accessible from the UN web site at www.un.org/members/y2k/ meeting/ I attended the meeting, listened to all the presentations, listened to the questions raised by delegates from 120 countries (which were not recorded), and came away with the distinct impression that the vast majority of countries are VERY worried about the overall impact of Y2K on the global economy and infrastructure. Ed -- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 24, 1998. greenspun.com