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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (33533)	12/25/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: dj8000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

There is first annual all star analyst program in CNBC and one oil analyst mentioned pick for 99 as NE (and another one but i lost that). the program will be rerun at 4:00pm today. Happy holiday to all. DJ

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (33533)	12/25/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Merry Christmas all... My expectations on the Oilpatch for the New Year CNBC had two ''All Star'' Oil analysts on this a.m. A number of good points were driven home. Primarially; as the Morgan Keegan analyst so correctly stated - ''it is different this time'' - in that unlike most prior Oil Busts; this is not from having too many drillers and too much Exploration and/or production. Also, we have solid, financially secure, mature, high-tech companies led by management who have weathered prior storms and many of these companies, once again - totally unlike prior busts; are not only currently profitable, but some are still very profitable and in some cases performing well above market performance standards. This is indeed a ''demand'' induced bust. Demand is more purely cyclical than is supply; and will also prove to be more easilly corrected, or managed than a supply induced bust. Demand can and will respond to the historic, Internationally coordinated, Interest Rate Cuts and to the Global Stimulus packages like Japan's historic multi-Billion Dollar Stimulus program. To give the last rites to the Oilpatch in this ''demand'' induced bust is premature to say the least. History has taught us time and time again; that every time the market ignores cyclical trends and cyclical commodity oriented sectors that fall to traditional bottoms; they quite often miss the boat and those investors that seize and recognize opportunities at these darkest hours; are often rewarded with outstanding returns. Also on CNBC and as reflected in numerous comments in many articles on the Tech Sector; strong signs of Asia having bottomed are being recognized all most everywhere. The decline in Asian demand has ended, the trend is now flat - not having as yet upturned; but alas - no longer heading down. Some strong demand growth is being seen in countries like Korea; and Asia at least in the tech sector is showing signs of turning here. The question is once again; does one have to ''beat the crowd to the party'' and buy Oilpatch stocks prior to the emergence of acknowledged positive fundamentals in demand, supply and ultimately crude oil prices - in this case here & now; off of the first signs of Asian demand having bottmed - or, does one wait untill a clear, accepted change in supply, demand and crude oil price fundamentals has clearly emerged ? Personally; I feel that cheap oilpatch stocks and positive fundamentals do not and can not simultaneously exist; once must buy early, to buy low; or one must buy high and hope for the sector moving higher, if one waits for a positive fundamental enviroment. I believe the Street has clearly shown us that this sector trades on the present ''expectations'' of future fundamentals. If so; one must clearly stay ahead of the curve here to achieve maximum profits. Additionally; the individual investor has at least a couple of clear advantages over the Institutional Investor. One is the ''dead-money'' factor. Mutual funds and Institutions can not afford to arrive too early, they can not carry ''dead-money'' for virtually any period of time. Mutual Funds and Institutional Managers are graded on a competitive comparison against both the Market and their peers on a daily, weekly, monthly , quarterly and annual basis. We are in an enviroment where even a proven top Mutual Fund like the Kauffman Fund; has Hundreds of Millions in redemptions during periods of flat performance or dead money; irregardless of the stellar valuations and future performance expectations in their holdings. Also, the pressure of tax loss selling gives the individual investor a window of opportunity here at year end to seize. For the Oilpatch if one agrees that indeed this is a ''demand'' induced Bust; one must decide if the historic and unprecedented International coordination of Economic Policy (rate cuts) and the Global Stimulus packages entailing Billions of Dollars in Japan, Brazil etc.; in addition to the natural cyclical factors in demand - will be enough to return the Oilpatch to a more positive enviroment tommorrow than exists today... If so; history has taught us that buying right here, right now - will be incredibly profitable; given a 27 year low in commodities; a historic low in real dollar valuations of crude oil; and quite unbelieveably; in an enviroment where use-demand is still actually growing and also quite unbelieveably, where most companies are still quite profitable and stable. For this sector to be so over-sold; with so many oppportunities and expectations; in addition to the historic cyclical lessons of valuations and returns that seems to get totally forgotten in every cyclical downturn; I see more than a compelling buying opportunity here. To ignore the "Trends'' is to miss an tremendous opportunity here. The ''Trends'' are in lower International Rates, increased Global liquidity and a positive stimulus stance Internationally. A positive growth in demand for both Crude Oil and Natural Gas; and the potential for tremendous growth in emerging markets in the very near future. Also, the Trend for Technological advances and Mergers - which lower the cost of producing Crude Oil are positive. That this is a demand versus supply induced bust is a positive. That the trend of demand is positive and that the trend for supply is negative; is a positive. To ignore the ''Trends'' is to miss the boat here... As also mentioned by the analysts on CNBC today; one of the keys to successfull stockpicking here; is to pick companies that aid the International Oil majors in producing crude more cheaply. Be that via technology from companies like CLB, or via cutting edge products or services from companies like CXIPY, SCSWF, PGO, VTS, CDIS or companies performing services, or manufacturing products in the strong niches like deepwater or natural gas; like RIG VRC DRQ RON WFT FGI GLBL etc. This indeed will be a stock/company picking market. Those with strong balance sheets (DO ESV RDC SDC SLB), proven management (GLBL RDC HAL) and strong niches will be the winners in this enviroment. Small emerging niche companies like UFAB & GIFI were mentioned by analysts today as well and these companies certainly offer value in todays enviroment; many being able to purchased much lower than their initial IPO prices or even at the option strike prices of insiders. The Independant E&P sector will also present tremendous opportunites; again the advantage is to the financially strong companies like APA who can acquire the spun off assets from the down sizing majors, or buy out smaller competitors in a ''buyers'' market. Natural Gas leveraged companies like Enron, Noble Affiliates, Burlington, etc. offer tremendous opportunity as well; as do the proven Exploration leaders like APC. The rewards are greatest when so few see & seek them... I see 20% + returns conservatively in January on just the return of tax loss sellers and short covering. Given the 40% one day rise in stocks like GLBL from $5-$7 on just the initial Iraq news - mainly short covering; we have individual stocks - that offer 40-50% to ''doubles'' here on virtually ''any'' positive change in fundamentals, further OPEC cuts etc. With 2 prior 30-50% sector moves in a falling fundamental enviroment this past Sept - Oct how can anyone discount another. We could benefit substantially from short covering off of any positive news, the return of the Mutual Funds, Sector rotation as the overall market gets a little ''heady'' here and fund managers look for value etc. When the expectations of $15 crude return, not $15 crude itself - we will move quickly here. As evidenced by the 2 prior volatile moves upward here; it is quite easy to miss an entire move; which can come out of the blue -off of virtually no news or events... Imho; one has to pick an entry/value point and seize the opportunity - beating the crowd to the party... as we have weathered everything from Russian & Brazilian collapses, a total Market Crash, sub $10 Brent, historic Budget Cuts by the Oil Majors and a Presidential Impeachment; there is simply no reason to expect any other events to trigger a substantial move downward to a new bottom - the time is now imho ! good luck.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (33533)	12/25/1998 5:05:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

George: Yes siree! I owned every single money center bank that I could get my hands on. CMB, CCI, CHL, etc. etc. All at around $10 - $12 a share. Unfortunately, I sold out way way WWWAAAAAAYYYYYYYY to cheap. I ignored everything I LEARNED in the BOOKS about value and sold at around $15 - $17. Quite a LESSON, don't you think? This is a LESSON I've had to LEARN over and again. C at $10. GLM and VRC at $3 and $5 before the big move and on and on. I pray that I don't have to LEARN the LESSON all over again. Perhaps, this time I can finally GRADUATE and get my doctoral degree from the SCHOOL OF BUFFET. Now, back to Nintendo! Enough homework already. I'll see you at the top!