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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (2824)	12/25/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Happy Holiday James a Holiday topp in the making, one other divergence I neglected to mention and maybe the most important of all - and you will appreciate more than most. Draw a line on the July/December tops on the S&P and Nasdaq (for real fun use the NDX -g-) then take the $USD index chart draw a line across the same time periods. Foreign inflows have ramped up since 1Q 98 and have pushed this bubble in bonds and stocks. Impeachment may mean nada to Americans, but don't be so sure about our world neighbors, who backed us in 1991 (Clinton could only fool poor Tony Blair) have abandoned our most recent wagging the dog into Iraq. It took almost a decade for America to recapture it's esteem from the Nixon saga and bear market. We were also in that time coming out of a period of very low unemployment and very high consumer confidence (nifty fifty bubble top). While most fund managers a couple of years ago would have told you that tech stocks were too volitile to include in their portfolio --- now Tech stock reco's are dripping out of the mouth of everybody - watch Louis Chuckelreyser last week -g-. I wonder if Buffett may finally capitulate and buy Microsoft for his lagging portfolio -gggggggggg- I was mulling over the sentiment and VIX indicators not being able to acheive their overbought status at the July top and I believe that is because this is a bear market rally and not the bull market peak - your analysis of the make-up of the Indexes drives home this point. The internal bull market peak was March-April when the "Married to the Bull" cover on Newsweek came out - to go with the price peak of July. Several ideas support this conclusion. A/D failure to take out 200 dma, ABC countertrend pattern in vix with 5-3-5 pattern, lower low on 10/8/98 - 9 month cycle low. Compared to the 97 correction, we had a higher low on the 1/12/98 - 9 month cycle low. Many analysts have proclaimed the 4 year cycle low being in place in October, I would deeply question that with the CRB making new lows, showing that deflationery lack of pricing power is still in the system. Money focused in a few sectors as fund managers who are lagging the index are desperately trying to play catch up, placing an asset bubble in techs & nutz. On-line sales were still a very minute part of the holiday shopping season, but enough to push up some NUTZ 1000% and more - even Fedex and Southeby's became internet stocks of the Season-gggg- On a positive note, I believe we have one last push in the TECHS and the NUTZ and I will be riding the rocket to the top. Go NUTZ! beara predicts most money will be made on the short side in 99 and it may take the 2nd John Elway Superbowl to really get the bear market underway -g- My money in 99 will be on BEARX and BRONCOS! -g-