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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Mansfield who wrote (3040)12/25/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 9818
 
'All that said--and considering other factors, including the amount of work already completed
and the planned contingencies and compromises people will have to make as the century
turnover nears--I believe that severe disruptions will occur and that they will last perhaps
about a month. Additional problems, ranging from annoyances to more serious issues, will
continue cropping up throughout 2000. This prediction might be optimistic; it assumes that
people will have done what is necessary to minimize the number of single points of failure that
could occur. Accomplishing that alone in the time remaining will require a Herculean effort
unprecedented in the history of computers.'
_________

Peter de Jager in Scientific American:
sciam.com



To: John Mansfield who wrote (3040)12/25/1998 6:41:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 9818
 
redcross.org



To: John Mansfield who wrote (3040)12/25/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 9818
 
'VII. Latin America: Clueless

Y2K El Niño

According to the October 28 issue of The Wall Street Journal, Latin America faces
more turmoil in 2000 because governments and firms in the region have ignored Y2K.

A large part of the corporate world was also slow to address the Year 2000 problem
issue, but widespread publicity of the problem's seriousness has prompted many
companies to implement crash programs to come to terms with it. Analysts say that
while the Year 2000 problem is no less serious a problem for Latin American
governments, the level of awareness among many public officials has been
disturbingly low.

According to Carlos Guedes, Deputy Controller of the Inter-American Development
Bank, "One thing misleading governments in developing countries is they think that they
won't be as affected. They may not have the most modern systems, but what they have is
basic and critical." Brazilian and Mexican programmers have been lured by high salaries
to work in the United States. If governments fail to fix their revenue collection systems,
the resulting turmoil will be bad for Latin Americans, and could even trigger another
global financial crisis.
Brazil:
Dead Last

According to Gartner Group analyst Jim Cassell, half of all Latin American enterprises
will suffer damage from the Year 2000 computer problem. Cassell said Gartner
conducted a study in 1998, querying 16,000 enterprises worldwide on their awareness of
the Year 2000 problem. Not surprisingly, the most prepared nation is the United States.
Other countries with a high degree of readiness include Canada, Australia, South Africa,
Israel and the United Kingdom. At the bottom of the list is Brazil, the largest economy in
Latin America. Venezuela and Argentina round out the unholy trinity of least-prepared
nations. Gartner says that Mexico is the only Latin country with a comprehensive plan for
addressing Y2K issues. Just about the only good news in the region is that Latin banks
are working hard to get ready.
Brazil:
Disclosure And
Deadly Deadline

On May 22, 1998, the Rio de Janeiro Securities & Exchange Commission (CVM) issued
a communiqué which established December 31, 1999 as the deadline by which public
companies, pension funds, government-subsidized companies, and clearing house
organizations must fix their computers for Y2K. According to the Bridge News story,
CVM will impose daily fines on those that don't fix their computers. It wasn't clear from
the report, but I have to believe that the fines will be slapped on companies before
January 1, 2000 if they fail to make good progress. The CVM decree ordered all the
companies under its jurisdiction to provide quarterly financial statements containing the
following information: 1) how much was invested to debug the systems, 2) technical
measures adopted, and 3) possible risks to the business if the situation is not fixed by the
deadline.

This information must be certified by an external auditing firm. One critic of the plan said
that the fines weren't severe enough and proposed that CVM should threaten to suspend
the license to trade in the stock market of troubled companies. As of late May 1998, no
national study of Y2K had been conducted in Brazil.
Brazil:
No Dial Tone

Now, consider the following analysis of Telebrás, the Brazilian phone company. It was
written by Merrill Lynch's telecommunication services analysts for Latin America in June
1998:

The most important question for us is how the issue will play out in Brazil. We believe
that most of the Telebrás system is woefully "uncompliant" at this stage. First of all,
the systems are antiquated. Second of all, attentions have been focused elsewhere
lately [i.e., privatization]. Third current management will not even be around in the
year 2000. The buyers of the government's stake in each of the subsidiaries will have
less than a year-and-a-half to sort out the issue. There will be other priorities to
contend with during that time, notably upgrading and building out the network ahead
of the competition. Nevertheless, they will need to replace much of the current
infrastructure anyway, including the billing system, and thus will be starting with a
clean slate.

Brazil is one of the largest economies in the world. It is an important manufacturer of
commodities, components, and grains. If Brazil's telecommunications lines malfunction
during 2000, this alone could cause a disruption in the global just-in-time production
system severe enough to trigger a global recession.
Mexico:
No Action

According to the October 30, 1998 issue of The Wall Street Journal Interactive
Edition, the Mexican government is taking Y2K very seriously, and is racing ahead of the
private sector in preparations. Year 2000 computer work began as early as 1997, and in
June 1998 President Ernesto Zedillo set up the National Commission for Computer
Conversion, headed by Carlos Jarque, president of the National Statistics Institute,
known as INEGI.

Under the government plan, supervised by the Comptroller General's Office, each
ministry is responsible for its own area. INEGI already has completed its conversion
work. The central bank has 171 priority systems, of which 103 are already updated.
Work is expected to be finished by the end of this year, according to a bank document.
The Mexican Stock Exchange reportedly started work in February 1997, and had
advanced 65% to 70% by late August 1998.

On the other hand, more than two-thirds of the private sector enterprises that use
computers have yet to act. A survey conducted by INEGI showed that:

1) 34% of the 3.2 million businesses in the country--excluding the financial sector--use
computers;
2) a third have networks and a quarter of those exchange information electronically with
suppliers and customers;
3) all large businesses, two-thirds of medium-sized businesses and one in three small
businesses use computers.

But while companies are aware of Y2K, very few had done anything about it by the end
of August 1998. Most of the large manufacturing companies have made some moves, but
overall, fewer than a third have begun working on software and less than a fifth on
hardware adjustments or replacements, according to the survey.

...
yardeni.com



To: John Mansfield who wrote (3040)12/25/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9818
 
'I. No Plan B At IRS

"Very Thin
Margin Of
Tolerance"

At the end of March 1998, Internal Revenue Commissioner Charles O. Rossotti asked
the Senate Finance Committee to delay implementation of several provisions of a bill
designed to overhaul the IRS. The agency is already overwhelmed by two tasks:

1) Much of 1998 was spent making software changes mandated by the 1997 Taxpayer
Relief Act.

2) The year 1999 must be devoted to testing the Y2K repairs made in 1998 on about
75,000 computer application programs, 1,400 minicomputers, more than 100,000
desktop computers, and more than 80 mainframe computers.

Business Week (Feb. 23, 1998) asked John Yost, the director of the Year 2000 project
at the IRS, if everything will be fixed in time. "I'm not making any promises just yet," he
responded. Mr. Rossotti has set January 31, 1999 as the deadline for fixing Y2K. "We
have a very thin margin of tolerance to make this whole thing work," he told USA Today
(April 2, 1998). He added, "There is no Plan B."
One Of The
Biggest Problems

On September 17, 1998, in his first public address as Chief Information Officer for the
Internal Revenue Service, Paul Cosgrave presented his plans to modernize the agency's
computer systems and improve customer service at the embattled IRS. According to the
September 18, 1998 issue of Federal Computer Week, Cosgrave said his vision for the
IRS includes installing a standardized computer system, organizing a new management
team, lobbying for a larger computer-training budget, encouraging staff to be more
customer-friendly and rewriting the agency's mission statement to include the phrase
"service to taxpayers."

Cosgrave's agenda is in reaction to IRS reform legislation approved during the summer of
1998 to keep the agency on track to modernize its infrastructure. The measure, the most
sweeping reform of the tax-collection agency since 1952, focused mainly on revamping
the IRS to make it more taxpayer-friendly and to curb abuses by aggressive agents,
which are goals Cosgrave said he wants to support by improving the agency's use of
information technology.

One of the biggest problems Cosgrave is dealing with is the Year 2000 problem, which
he said could cause some isolated problems in the 1999 tax filing season. Cosgrave said
he expects some computer problems because "when you're changing so many codes that
need to be tested, there are going to be some problems.''

The extent of the problems, such as erroneously telling a taxpayer that he owes more than
he has paid, should be limited, an IRS spokesman said. Cosgrave said the IRS will spend
close to a billion dollars for its millennium fixes. "It's unfortunately necessary,'' he said.
"We have systems that date back to the '60s.'' Cosgrave said the IRS has 50 percent of
its computer systems fixed for the Year 2000 problem and expects to have at least 90
percent fixed by 1999.
Big Brother, Big
Mess

The history of information technology modernization at the IRS isn't very reassuring about
the agency's prospects for Y2K readiness. On May 15, 1997, the IRS issued "Request
for Comments for Modernization Prime Systems Integration Services Contract" which
was a distress call to private industry to bail out the taxing agency. According to this
document, the IRS has been totally disorganized for years, notwithstanding a
modernization program during the 1980s and early 1990s--which in many ways
exacerbated the situation. "Overall, the IRS computing environment evolved into an
extraordinarily complex array of legacy and stand-alone modernized systems with respect
to both connectivity and interoperability between the mainframe platforms and the
plethora of distributed systems." The IRS has more than 62 million lines of computer
code, three big mainframes, and 60 other mainframes in 10 regional offices. According to
the RFC, "None of the mainframes are century date compliant, thereby necessitating
immediate actions ranging from systems software upgrades to replacement." Thousands
of applications systems are "undocumented," i.e., lost, if they ever existed.

There is no central data base. The IRS "neither maintains the source payment documents
nor posts either detailed transaction-specific payment or tax case information to the
Master Files. Instead, the detailed tax and tax case information is stored on stovepiped
systems with stand-alone databases which, for the most part, are not integrated with
either the Master Files or the corporate on-line system."

In 1988, the IRS implemented the Tax System Modernization (TSM) plan to upgrade
and modernize the agency's technology. The program created stand-alone ("stovepipe")
systems for the 10 service centers based on "the principles of distributed computer
processing, an approach to computing en vogue during the late 1980s and 1990s." The
numerous databases are difficult to synchronize and to manage. The system is breaking
down. Y2K will break it for sure. The IRS observes:

One of the more fundamental and wrong-headed myths concerning Tax Systems
Modernization is the nature of the technical problem: to modernize legacy systems.
Regrettably, the challenge is far more overarching: to modernize functioning but aged
legacy systems which have been nearly irreparably overlaid by and interfaced with a
tangle of stovepiped distributed applications systems and networked infrastructures.

In 1995, the General Accounting Office reported that TSM was a disaster. The system's
multiple computers and databases could not integrate with existing computers. It made the
IRS even less efficient. Congress ordered the IRS to produce a new modernization plan
by May 15, 1997. A seven-volume Blueprint for Modernization was produced and the
Request for Comments was issued. (See the "Today/Target" flow chart.)
The Goal Is To
"Stay In
Business"

The May 1997 RFC document states, "Under the crushing time constraints of the
millennium change," the IRS is working with its current contractors on interim Y2K fixes,
but admits that it "lacks the capacities and capabilities to simultaneously manage the
existing workload and effectively partner with the private sector to commence
Modernization. Any reasonable strategy to move forward, therefore, would focus on
managing the immediate crisis--'stay in business' while building capacity to prepare for
future Modernization."
CIO Was
Worried About
Living On This
Planet

According to the October 17, 1997 issue of the Year 2000 Outlook, an e-mail weekly
service of the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA), Arthur Gross,
who was then Chief Information Officer at the IRS, spoke at their industry gathering in
McLean, Virginia [http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm]. Apparently, he was as concerned
about his agency's Y2K problem as I surmised from the RFC. He was quoted as saying,
"Failure to achieve compliance with Year 2000 will jeopardize our way of living on this
planet for some time to come."
1997 Taxpayer
Relief Disrupts
Y2K Fix

According to the ITAA account of his candid speech, "Mr. Gross used words like
'massive' and 'numbing' to describe a program which has jumped from three people to
800. With the IRS software inventory 'not fully fleshed out,' Gross said the Y2K
accounting covers up to 70 million lines of code, 95,000 components, and 120 mission
critical systems." Not only does the IRS have to achieve Y2K compliance, but also the
agency must simultaneously change its software to reflect the 1998 and 1999 changes
required by the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. He indicated that the IRS was also
preparing worst-case contingency plans that probably "won't be shelfware." Mr. Gross
said the IRS is in a "marathon race" to the Y2K finish line. This is perhaps "the last
opportunity to fix the tax system as we know it. "
Countdown To
Meltdown?

The November 3, 1997 issue of Insight, a publication of The Washington Times,
focused on all the problems at the IRS. One of the stories is titled "IRS Countdown to
Meltdown." The story quoted Arthur Gross telling a congressional commission that
"failure to identify, recode, and retest each of these date-based fields could result in the
generation of millions of erroneous tax notices, refunds, bills, interest calculations,
taxpayer account adjustments, accounting transactions and financial reporting errors. Put
another way, the IRS' capability to carry out its mission could be jeopardized."

yardeni.com



To: John Mansfield who wrote (3040)12/26/1998 5:12:00 AM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9818
 
' AT&T disconnects vintage net service

'From:
Ralph Daugherty <ralph@ee.net>
vr 21:35

Subject:
AT&T disconnects vintage net service

I ran across something interesting in the Dec. 7 Federal Computer Week
paper edition. The article is at:

AT&T disconnects vintage net service
www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1207/fcw-polatt-12-7-98.html

I've read about X.25 for a number of years and know enough from what I've
read that it was a heavily used communications protocol. So when I read:

'AT&T officials told agencies last month that the company will no longer
offer a 20-year-old packet-switching telecommunications service to federal
users of the FTS 2000 contract and will not upgrade the existing service for
Year 2000 compliance.'

'A spokeswoman for AT&T Government Markets said the company was "never a
dominant player" in the X.25 market, and it has decided to stop offering the
service. She said AT&T will instead offer federal X.25 users incentives to
switch to its frame relay service or its Off-Site Access to Servers and
Intranet Solutions (OASIS) package for high-speed access to agency local-area
network resources.'

'Agencies using AT&T's X.25 service will have to switch within a year
because the service will no longer operate after 2000. "We are not using that
platform anymore, so obviously there is no point in upgrading for Year 2000
compliance," the spokeswoman said.'

I couldn't quite decide whether AT&T was using Y2K as an excuse to drop a
communications service in which it was not competitive and try to move
customers to a frame-relay service in which it might have an advantage. I
thought it odd that AT&T's X.25 communications had a Y2K problem severe enough
to cause AT&T to dump it rather than fix it. Or was it just a ploy? Reading
on, I was shocked to see:

'Jim Payne, Sprint's assistant vice president for FTS 2000, said the
government operates X.25 installations mostly in areas in which digital
facilities are unavailable. "These agencies have had the rug pulled out from
under them," Payne said. "We think we are going to book every piece of
business that AT&T has left on the floor. We are supporting X.25 through the
Year 2000 and beyond."'

'Arnold Bresnick, associate chief information officer for policy at the
USDA, said his agency runs more than 1,000 X.25 circuits throughout all its
bureaus and offices. "Clearly it's a concern because it forces us to decide
on alternative means of service and to develop a time line for that," Bresnick
said of AT&T's announcement. "This doesn't strike me as an emergency, but we
are proceeding with all due speed."'

'X.25 will be a mandatory service on FTS 2001, the follow-on to the
existing contracts that is scheduled to be awarded later this month, Toker
said. AT&T will have to offer the service -- apparently through a
subcontractor -- if it wins an FTS 2001 contract. Bresnick said he has not yet
decided how the USDA should respond to AT&T's announcement. He said it may
behoove the agency to wait and see the results of the FTS 2001 contract
awards.'

"It's a little puzzling at this point because even though AT&T is saying
they are pulling out of X.25, it is a mandatory requirement in FTS 2001,"
Bresnick said. "If AT&T is a viable bidder, then it will have to provide X.25
service. So I think it's premature to take any action."

Not only was AT&T leaving Federal agencies such as the Coast Guard, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Agriculture Department
and the Environmental Protection Agency in the lurch, with its competitor
Sprint only too happy to pick up the business, but AT&T was discontinuing a
service that is a required capability for a multi-billion dollar contract it
was bidding on against Sprint and MCI. And I was not the only one puzzled.
So was the CIO of the Agriculture Department.

Then the first ramification of AT&T dropping X.25 rather than remediate it
for Y2K:

Sprint wins FTS 2001, Part 1
www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1221/fcw-newssprint-12-21-98.html

'The General Services Administration on Friday awarded Sprint the first of
two contracts under the $5 billion FTS 2001 program, a move likely to reduce
prices and shift many agencies to new providers.'

'GSA will award a second contract by mid-January, Fischer said. Both
contracts carry a minimum revenue guarantee of $750 million. Sprint, along
with AT&T, was an incumbent on FTS 2000. Sources said Sprint beat out AT&T and
MCI for the first FTS 2001 contract.'

'Industry analysts and sources called GSA's selection of Sprint as the
Round One winner a real setback for AT&T, which handles 76 percent of the
traffic on FTS 2000. An industry executive intimately familiar with AT&T
Government Markets called the Sprint award "absolutely devastating to AT&T.''

'Former FTS Commissioner Bob Woods, now president of Federal Sources Inc.,
said, "AT&T is obviously going to lose business" as a result of the award to
Sprint.'

'Fischer said the award was a best-value selection based on price and on
Sprint's superior technical approach, the strength of its team, its billing
system and other considerations.'

Could we read "Sprint's superior technical approach and other
considerations" as Sprint's ability to support X.25 service in the year 2000
while AT&T has chosen not to? AT&T risked a $5 billion contract, which it had
previously held 76% of the business, by dropping the X.25 communications
service which was a requirement in the contract. They lost Part 1 of the
contract and left Federal agencies puzzled and scrambling to switch their X.25
service to Sprint even before the new contract was awarded to Sprint. All
because they couldn't cope with making their X.25 communications service Y2K
compliant. And they paid the price within two weeks of making the
announcement.

Ralph