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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (793)	12/26/1998 12:14:00 AM
From: Fredman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

one problem might be: WEB has said he doesn't see anything he can buy WITHIN REASON - meaning - without attracting a lot of attention. If he has 30 BILL in cash waiting to invest, is it Simpler to spend/invest it ? This isn't K-Mart, where you go up and down the aisles putting stocks in your basket, and then going to the checkout line. Did you see the posting from 2-3 weeks ago, of stocks BH owns that are NOT disclosed to the public for one year ? I will see if i can find the URL again and post it for you. I hope you know what i mean by the above - i know it might not make any sense..... Message 6889697 Yes, i see you are the recipient of this msg in the first place... If i had 30 BILL to invest, no doubt i'd lose half of it on speculation stocks.....

To: James Clarke who wrote (793)	12/26/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 4691

In my opinion, Jhg raises a very interesting point which relates to my own questioning of trying to employ the Buffett methodology successfully. First, to the idea that Buffett is NOT buying, post #697 shows that Buffett in 2nd-3rd quarter '97 bought TMK, US Banc, and AIG. Furthermore, as you Buffett followers know, that's the Public Buffett. His individual purchases under the 3% mark, don't get reported. I think he buys and sells there too. That would be IMO, and based on my readings of his activities in the 1980's. There's really no evidence to show that in 1998 he was not buying. Is that right? Let's assume HE is not buying and you (you all) are not buying then either. There would be three reasons you all would not buy Buffett-type stocks now (assuming you had available funds -g-): You either cannot find a Buffett type stock, or if you have, it's too expensive to buy now. Or you expect from your macro analyses/already high level of the market, etc. that the price might be right or high, but it will get better once the market drops. (assumes the market will crater and take out the Buffett stock too.) Just in my reading of this thread, there's no real agreement on what is now a Buffett stock to buy. Maybe RAL, but I don't recall seeing many people step up and say they bought it. I get that in spite of decades of Buffett and his methodology, there is no 'real' Buffett stock out there that people will kinda-sorta agree about and wanted for purchase in 1988 or as we go into 1999. Maybe this is all okay, if somebody has alternative uses for their money -- like house purchases, or if somebody only has a few thousand dollars to invest, or if somebody is already wealthy. But for somebody who wants to make money in the stock market, my opinion is that trying to follow Buffett is a loser's game (except for buying BHK). These guys Chezzlewit and Jhg have bought stocks that people subsequently want to own, and these gentlemen can make a very good argument why they did this. And regardless of what one thinks of that argument, it is not looking good IMO for anyone on this thread who tried to pick Buffett stocks in 1996, 1997, or 1998 -- from what I can tell. To me, to say by keeping your bat on your shoulder, all that you've lost is opportunity cost--I say that the opportunity cost is the greatest cost. There've been at least 3 straight years of great returns in the market. If someone is only a Buffett investor, has come to the market during that time, and found nothing worth buying -- that person has lost out IMO. (And the same can be said for anyone who is just a value investor perhaps.) The boat was missed. Maybe that boat will sink, maybe there'll be another boat along later. But in 1996, 1997, and 1998 fortunes were to be made, were made, and Buffett followers (those who waited for Buffett stocks)missed it. Not trying to convince anyone of anything or to do anything differently. It's just that I'm still on shore (too) and not happy about it! ah well. Happy holidays all. Paul