To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (40972 ) 12/26/1998 11:43:00 AM From: Jess Beltz Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
Kerry, Thanks for the reply. I did not at all mean to sound high-handed or to pontificate about "people's inability to comprehend exponential growth," etc. I was simply saying that what I'm hearing about Internet companies is simply that they're way to high with no discussion about the why of the premise beyond some reasons that sound like, "they just must be." I want to know why. The market is i believe both inefficient and irrational at times, but i do not put too much faith in relying on irrationality. I guess, like most of us, i'm trying to probe the depths of what some people see in these firms. (I'm preparing a letter to Michael as well, and so some of the things i would say to you i will save for that reply, which will follow on the heels of this one.) FWIW, i own one small internet play (WAVO) but will touch no stock with .com in its name. I do think that AOL.com is having a huge run-up on the back of the movie "You've Got Mail" and wonder about some kind of short position in the coming weeks, but let me put the question to Michael. About semiconductor stocks, let me say the following. I think it is possible to put together a reasonable assessment of (1) the health of the industry, (2) the major players and their technologies, and (c) the prospects for the financial health of those players with the help of a good publication or two and through talking to people in the industry. I guess i don't believe that its all a big crap-shoot quite as much as you do, although i acknowledge there is an element of that in the industry, exposing the reason why one simply must have a diversified portfolio when investing in this sector. Good luck in the coming year. I hope to share some investment ideas with you from time to time. happy new year. jess.