To: Bill Harmond who wrote (31215 ) 12/26/1998 10:09:00 AM From: llamaphlegm Respond to of 164684
william, william william Research Reports Amazon.com (AMZN-NNM) by Pacific Crest (216 1/8 , Dec. 9) Buy. We believe ample opportunity exists for Amazon.com to grow in excess of 70% per year over the next three to five years. The shares are worth at least $215, or 10.7 times our 1999 revenue estimate of $19.97 per share. However, given the exuberant nature of Internet investors, we believe the stock has the potential to trade at higher levels. ... the fools are greater than you think so buy 2. The accompanying table lists the 25 biggest U.S. companies in the stock market that aren't now in the S&P. It's noteworthy that Yahoo and Amazon.com now rank No. 2 and 3. Berkshire, as noted in this space two weeks ago, could be considered for addition to the S&P next year if the liquidity in its stock rises following the General Re merger. Amazon probably won't be added to the S&P for some time because it isn't expected to earn a profit until 2001. But Yahoo is making money and conceivably could join in the next year or two. The main reasons that most of the other companies on the list haven't been added to the S&P are thin float and the issue of double-counting. ... so much for amzn joining in the next few weeks or years 3. Individuals, adhering to the Peter Lynch philosophy of buying stocks in companies whose products they like, have scored big in such issues as Gap, Home Depot, Microsoft, Intel and America Online. True, the buying of these stocks has pushed valuations to heights that exceed those of the famous Nifty Fifty market of 1972. But the argument in favor of the current favorites is that their price/earnings multiples, which often exceed 50, can be justified in a low-rate environment and because their prospects are better than the original Nifty Fifty. "It used to be that companies existed under a valuation umbrella of Coca-Cola," says Thomas McManus, an independent market strategist. "Now the umbrella is formed by an AOL or Amazon.com." McManus explains that before this year, investors were reluctant to push the P/E multiple of a large company above that of Coca-Cola, long the market's premier growth stock. Now the sky's the limit as far as P/Es are concerned, with AOL trading at 250 times projected profits in its current fiscal year. Coke, by contrast, never got much higher than a P/E of 50.