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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (3047)	12/26/1998 5:25:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

VERY GOOD! : '~ Y2k Contingency Planning Timeline from ~ ~ Capers Jones ~ YEAR 2000 CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS (Complete plan available for printing in the Millennium Salons Tool You Can Use section) YEAR 2000 CONTINGENCY CALENDAR This generic contingency calendar is organized by month from September of 1998 through March of 2000. The calendar is not aimed at any specific city, but merely indicates some of the topics that municipal governments need to consider when dealing with year 2000 problems. Calendar Year 1998 September 1998 Local advisory board appointed First meeting of advisory board Town meeting #1 on year 2000 contingency plans Press release #1 on year 2000 contingency plans October 1998 Head of contingency planning named and begins work Year 2000 contingency cost estimate prepared Year 2000 preliminary budget: What if insufficient funds exist? What about political opposition? What about cuts to other urban services? What about state or federal funding? What if experts are unavailable for local assistance? Salaries and benefits of contingency team members set Civil service status of contingency team members set Use of contractors/consultants for contingency work discussed Survey of other urban governments for useful planning templates Survey of state and federal sources for useful planning templates Local year 2000 web site established November 1998 Contact established with volunteer citizens groups Contact established with local year 2000 association Preliminary survey/audit of all urban software applications for year 2000 status Preliminary survey/audit of public utilities for year 2000 status Electricity Water Sewage Preliminary survey of communication channel year 2000 status Local telephone companies Long-distance companies Cellular companies Radio stations Television stations Ham radio operators Preliminary survey of transportation into and out of area Air services Railroads Trucking Highways Water transport Preliminary survey of emergency equipment and supplies Electric generators Fuel supplies Emergency food and water Batteries for electrical equipment Medical supplies Preliminary survey of weather-related supplies Heating oil Natural gas Preliminary survey of available experts for Y2K emergency work Software experts Data base experts Embedded system experts Electrical engineers Civil engineers December 1998 Criteria for joining contingency team worked out Budget approved to fund contingency group Contingency team nucleus begins to form Group leader First software experts Contact list of all year 2000 offices created Liaisons established with other governments (urban, country, state, federal) First draft of urban contingency plans created Fiscal year contingency plan Calendar year contingency plan Probable local damages Estimated time to repair Estimated costs of year 2000 repairs Preliminary contingency budget approved Funding shortages addressed Requests for proposals from outside vendors Generators and emergency equipment Radios and two-way communication equipment Year 2000 testing and compliance audit Calendar Year 1999 January 1999 Monitoring all applications for 12-month fiscal ìlook aheadî year 2000 problems Letters/phone calls to all vendors whose software failed First try out of year 2000 problem notifications First actual year 2000 problems repaired Year 2000 ìhot lineî established (1 shift) February 1999 Full contingency team selected and training begins (part time) Contracts for year 2000 consultant prepared Possible filing of litigation against unresponsive vendors Contract let for external audit of year 2000 testing March 1999 Monitoring all applications for 9-month fiscal year 2000 problems Orders placed for emergency supplies (generators, batteries, etc.) Town attorneys review possible litigation status against town agencies Unrepairable, unreplacable applications identified Manual backup plans for unrepairable applications April 1999 Revised contingency plans based on failures during first 3 months of 1999 Note: 65% chance costs will go up; 35% chance costs will come down. May 1999 External audit of urban year 2000 testing and repairs Audit report on methods and liability issues June 1999 Monitoring all applications for 6-month fiscal year 2000 problems Year 2000 hot line expands to two-shift operation Major town meeting on local, state, and federal year 2000 status July 1999 Briefings to police and fire departments on anticipated year 2000 problems Weekly year 2000 status reports released to press, radio, TV August 1999 Revised year 2000 damage cost estimates Updates to fiscal year and calendar year contingency plans September 1999 Monitoring all applications for 9-month ìlook aheadî year 2000 problems Multi-city/state/federal testing to guard against reinfection October 1999 Emergency supplies and back-up equipment stocked and available Final survey of key local businesses for year 2000 status Banks Local phone companies Insurance companies Hospitals Supermarkets November 1999 Contingency team ìdry runî to check response speed Loss of electricity Loss of telephone services Reinfection from external sources Liaison with citizen volunteer groups Liaison with state and federal year 2000 contingency teams Liaison with other municipal year 2000 contingency teams December 1999 Contingency team in place and ready for 24-hour operations Volunteer citizens groups trained and ready to assist Emergency supplies fully stocked and available Police and fire units standing by Year 2000 hot lines open and staffed Year 2000 radio/tv coverage prepared Police and fire emergency teams ready on 12/31 Year 2000 contingency team ready on 12/31 Radio contacts with state and federal emergency groups Final town meeting on year 2000 status Final status reports released to TV, radio, newspapers Calendar Year 2000 The worst-case scenario for January of 2000 would be protracted loss of electrical power and telephone services for a period of two weeks or more, coupled with disruption of public water supplies. For cities with cold climates, extended loss of electric power could lead to substantial collateral damages such as burst pipes and deaths of homeless persons. Once the year 2000 event has occurred, it can be expected that several months of emergency work will be needed to repair software and data base applications that were not repaired in time. In addition, substantial manual backup work will be needed to perform activities that would normally be done by computer: preparing W2 tax forms and issuing municipal paychecks, for example. By about March of 2000, assuming 24-hour a day emergency software repairs, most of municipal the software and computerized applications should be restored to service. However this assumes that electric power outages, water shortages, and other infrastructure damages are not too severe, and will be rapidly repaired. The Spring and Summer of the year 2000 will be spent in attempting to restore municipal government operations to pre-2000 levels of performance. The more serious issues during this period will be the economic damages and tax revenue reductions. Municipal governments face a possible four-fold set of damages from the year 2000, as pointed out in Capers Jones book The Year 2000 Software Problem: Quantifying the Costs and Assessing the Consequences (Addison Wesley, 1997). Municipal year 2000 repair expenses will be high, and exceed planned budgets. Municipal repairs will be less than 100%, leading to possible lawsuits. Year 2000 problems may well lower municipal bond revenues. Local tax revenues will be reduced due to corporate year 2000 problems. The aftermath of the year 2000 problem may result in some municipal bankruptcies. Even if bankruptcy does not occur, there will probably be a need to raise local taxes and reduce some local services to pay for year 2000 damages. There may be State and Federal year 2000 relief, but none is currently committed as this is written. There will also be negative political fallout from the year 2000 event. Elected officials who were not proactive about year 2000 repairs will probably not be reelected. For several years, a political leaderís stance on year 2000 problems will no doubt play a significant part in election results. January 2000 Police and fire emergency teams on 24 hour duty for first week Guarding food stores Guarding banks Guarding public facilities Volunteer citizens groups assist police and fire departments if needed Contingency team on 24-hour duty for first two weeks Year 2000 hotline on 24 hour duty (if phones are working) Surveillance against reinfection (if computers are working) Daily status reports and press releases Decision whether or not to declare city a ìdisaster areaî Decision whether or not to ask for National Guard assistance Year 2000 emergency physical repairs Electric power Water Sewage Emergency communication cut in Radio contacts with contingency team Radio contacts with state and federal year 2000 offices Year 2000 emergency software repairs Payrolls Taxation Accounts payable and receivable Manual backups for key activities Manual issuance of payroll checks Manual payment of accounts receivable Issuance of W2 forms and 1099 forms for tax reporting Emergency shelters open if needed Stranded travelers at airports Travelers running out of gas Anyone if temperatures are below freezing and power is off Initial assessment of year 2000 urban damages Physical damages due to freezing, fire, riots, etc. Status of all urban software, data bases, hardware, etc. Litigation filings against vendors whose products caused serious damages Litigation defense against claims by citizens and businesses February 2000 Accumulation of municipal year 2000 damage costs Survey of infrastructure damages and repairs Water supplies Electric power Sewage Continued filing of litigation against vendors whose software failed Continued defense against litigation filed against town agencies Negotiations with IRS on dealing with incorrect W2 and 1099 forms Hopefully all public utilities restored and fully operational Electricity Water Sewage Telephones Hopefully all modes of travel back at full capacity Year 2000 aftermath town meetings March 2000 Survey of local business failures with analysis of reduction in city tax base Manual backup methods gradually phased out as software repairs wind down Financial health of urban government assessed Federal and state financial assistance disbursements continue Decisions on raising taxes, reducing services, or both to pay for year 2000 Decision on potential municipal bankruptcy to avoid damage claims Some municipal services more or less normal Some municipal services suspended due to lack of available funds Litigation continues indefinitely Contingency team begins to disband if problems are contained (Use "Back" or close this new window) home.ica.net