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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Craig Stevenson who wrote (19898)12/26/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: KJ. Moy  Respond to of 29386
 
Craig,

<<Another thing to consider is that these guys have been involved with ANCR for a LONG time. They might think that a 4-bagger is a good exit point.>>>

You can make a case that a 2-bagger, 3-bagger, 5-bagger, 10-bagger is a good exit point. Ed's thought is the best. Just consider that there is 25 million shares outstanding. The incentive for them to drive the price down was gone. Their incentive now is the same as ours, price appreciation and maximum profit.

KJ



To: Craig Stevenson who wrote (19898)12/26/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Greg Hull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
 
Craig,

<<Based on what the Tailwind guy said during the last conference call, they weren't shorting the stock. If we assume that only one of the three Reg D entities was shorting the stock, that means that the conversions (against the short position) would only apply to that one entity. The other two entities would hold naked long positions that would at some point need to be unwound. >>

Since we have no reason to believe otherwise, let's assume that the Tail Wind Fund has never shorted the stock. This should not lead us to conclude that Tail Wind, or any other shareholder for that matter, has a naked long.

I have not confirmed this with any experts, but my understanding of the mechanics are that any of the preferred shareholders can sell long without having stock certificates in their lock box. They would do this as follows. On a day when they desire to sell, they sell long as many common shares as they choose. They then immediately instruct Ancor or Dunwoody Brokerage Service in Atlanta that they wish to convert X preferred shares, where X is sufficient to cover the number of commons shares sold. The long sale does not have to be settled for 3 business days, in which time the preferred shareholder has taken possession of the common stock certificates and turned them over to their broker. I do not know whether the stock is transferred electronicly or physically, but in either case it can be done within the three day settlement period.

The 144 filing would suggest that Tail Wind has held at least some common stock long (I assume naked) but the filing was for a relatively small number of shares. We have not seen any other filings for the other shareholders, but I do not know how to interpret this.

Whether they choose to sell long or sell short is just a matter of convenience. Selling short allows them to deliver the certificates more than three days after the sale. This might be done if they are not eligible to convert any more shares at a time when they wish to sell. If we trust what Tom Duxbury and others have stated, the big boys do not hold naked longs. The November short position decreased significantly from October, and I think the December position to be reported in a few days will be even lower. If the report shows a significant drop, I will consider the unwinding to be almost complete.

I understand the concerns that we might get blind-sided once again. On the other hand I would be sad to hear that a major pop happened while you were out of ANCR after all you have contributed to this board. I don't think we will ever get an "all-clear" siren announcing that all preferred stock has been converted AND all long positions held by the preferred shareholders have been sold. How will we know when they no longer have any clout, and how do we know that THEY are the biggest threat to us?

I wish you the best of luck in your trading decisions. Thank you for voicing your concerns for each of us to consider.

Greg

P.S. Regardless of your current ownership status, we all expect you to make Post# 20,000. It may not be many days away.