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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Janice Shell who wrote (231)	12/26/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Happy Boxing Day Janice, you evile M&M. Hey so you know about Incidents of Travel in Yucatan?

To: Janice Shell who wrote (231)	12/26/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

First I gotta check the Mayan calendar. How'd you know I just checked for a new moon???? I would love to join the fun and predict the 5-day period during which the Internet Five will fall 40%, however, the very act of predicting eliminates any chance of it happening, that is, short of my taking a position in any of the stocks in question. That in itself would guarantee a 40% decline and most likely in one day, not five. Lacking any predictions, I will offer my unpredictions: The fall will not happen . . . . . . on December 28 because institutional investors want winners on their books at year-end. . . . on December 29 b/c those smart enough to know their trades won't close till '99 are wise enough to have their money in stocks with sane multiples. . . . the week of Jan 4 b/c every company with good press has held it for after the holidays to maximize the effect. Lots of positive back-log. . . . the week of Jan 11 b/c of rumored takeout by major international telecommunications co., validating to those slow on the uptake that the Internet is more than a source of entertainment but a paradigm shift greater than anything this century has seen. . . . the week of Jan 18 b/c of above announcement, positive earnings by several companies affecting the sector, and a rumored takeout by second major international telecommunications co. . . . the week of 25 b/c of above announcement, giving further validation to the extent of telecom-data convergence. . . . the week of Feb. 1 b/c of Cisco earnings --- adding strength to the sector. . . . the week of Feb 8 b/c of upgrades based on positive earnings. Beyond this, I won't go b/c I don't know when the Fed meets again nor do I have any idea when Greenspan will give his next excessive exuberance speech. If strength in the telecommunications and networking sectors can't keep the Internet stocks from crashing, I'm hoping the market is wise enough to treat them like someone's imbecile uncle --- part of the family but not to be taken seriously. In all seriousness, I do think it'll be AG who puts the pin in the bubble and I fully intend to have cash in hand when he does, say, around the first of February. Have you located that Mayan calendar yet???? Cheers! Pat