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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stockbull who wrote (238)	12/26/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: bob lange	Respond to of 3543

In 1999, another 'correction' summer-fall 1998 is probable errr very likely! Valuations everywhwere are approaching stratosphere and couple this with some 'sky is falling, maybe, y2k fear' and the the monster is loose! The public is in the aformentioned stox, [ ebay, amzn, etc. ] in a big way! Can't see their resistance to gravity this next round! Get out no later than mid year [ may revise to earlier, but for now....]! As october rolls around, 401k $ and other stimulants [ rates? ???] COULD factor in and give us another 1998? Anyway for the meantime y2k mystery and pot stirring of has many a reptilian brain....... cautious?? B

To: Stockbull who wrote (238)	12/26/1998 1:03:00 PM
From: Mammon	Respond to of 3543

I believe that Auric is getting some interesting analyis from this thread. I also believe, as Auric is probably well aware :-), that the aforementioned internet stocks will not crash in unison, and thus, he will never have to fork over the dough. AOL, Yahoo, Amazon, and Ebay each deserve to be in their own niche, and analyzed as such. (I have left CMGI out of the analysis.) I believe, as entry #48 extrapolated, that Ebay will indeed crash near the time when the insider lockout period ends (January 25th), taking down UBID and others of the auction ilk. This group will never generate large profits, and indeed, are the most indicative of a "tulip mania." I believe the crash will be swift and merciless and that this group will never rise to great heights again. Amazon will crash whenever the disparity between its 4Q98 and 1Q99 earnings is widely (or not so widely) disseminated. Other internet e-tailers will crash along with it. This group will be analyzed in the future along with other retailers, and will become cyclical stocks that rise or fall separately based upon their own earnings and revenues. AOL is a tougher case. It is, obviously, strengthened because of its new place in the stock index. It will wax and wane along with the market, but its success will also be influenced by the success of the @Homes and Road Runners of the world, and whether this faster access becomes cheaper in the future. Additionally, AOL is now trying to break into the set-top cable box market, a market both Bill Gates and Paul Allen seem to feel has an important internet future. Where AOL ends up in the coming cable revolution is anyone's guess. In other words, the future of AOL is not predictable at this time. Do I see a crash coming anytime soon? No. A dip? Of course. As for Yahoo and the portals, well, their future is unpredictable as well. Can they leverage eyeballs into revenues? Who can really know at this point, though my best bet would be... don't bet against it. Having said this, is Yahoo over-valued at this time? Yes. Is some sort of dip coming? Yes... but a crash... I think it's too soon to tell. In summary, I see separate time-scenario crashes for Amazon and Ebay, with sympathetic dips from AOL and Yahoo. I believe the future of AOL and Yahoo depend upon future events which are difficult to predict at this time. Auric, I'd like to thank you for this thread. It was fun reading the entries, and helped to crystallize all our thinking about the internet mania.