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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahda who wrote (2833)	12/26/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81011

Darleen, I think that after the initial impact of the Euro during the few first months of next year, economic dislocations in the European market will bring about a slow down in those economies. That will not be visible or forecasted for a good six months into the transition. On top of that, our most recent monthly trade deficit numbers have been creeping up (namely have become less negative), which is partially due to weakening of the dollar and some "retrenchment" of our consumer. I expect this trend to continue for few months, to the point where it may negatively impact the Asian economies (particularly in view that mu model does not show any impact until the second half of the Japanese stimulus on their economy), setting the stage for the US cavalry once more coming to the "world" rescue, meaning allowing the dollar to climb to render Asia's good a more competitive stance. I also expect the relative strength of the US economy to be greater than that of most developed countries in the first half or at least the first quarter. I am sorry for the lengthy response, and realize I could have simply said "The turnips say so" (VBG). Zeev