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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (35681)	12/26/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 94695

George Ure's (Bear-Happy?) New Year -- The '99 Bottom Line: There are several: 1.I do not expect the Russell 2000 to make new all-time highs. If they do, it will be only narrowly in Jan or Feb. 2.The Dow and the Internet Bubble Stocks may hit new highs in Jan -Feb. Max: 9700-9800. 3.The collapse will begin when 2nd quarter earnings warnings (and some of the first quarter truths)start to emerge. Look for this in the first week of Feb. 4.The fall of 99 will have begun. One more Fed rate cut will attempt to slow the descent. Late February for this cut. Maybe March. 5.The fall although erratic will not stop until 3800 in July (or Sep. depending on your reading of Nostradamus' Quattrains). 6.Massive price inflation to follow - because of the mechanism described earlier on the page. Voiding of contracts (such as labor agreements or real estate) will pull the consequences forward, into the present. 7.Fits and starts rallies will continue through the balance of the year, fueled by Y2K uncertaintly, limited panic buying of hard goods by the general public (it's just us front edge people preparing now) and what will likely be small wars are two or three fronts by then. Iran/Pakistan/and the CIS southern flank region is certainly one candidate, with an emerging military leader to fulfill Nostradamus' prediction of the "leader of the Mongols" predictions. 8.Bill Clinton will escape conviction on the impeachment charges and will be censured by the Senate. This will send a message to everyone that it's OK to lie and mislead, depending of course,on what you mean by lie and mislead. The initial decline in the market in Jan-Mar will scare the Senate into a less honorable course - censure. 9.Y2K will arrive with only a few major disruptions, most of which will be repaired by Feb. or March. By then, however, the depression will be universally obvious. Large scale defaults on homes, cars, well, even companies who were late LBO players, will be underway. Insurance fraud zooms in the last quarter of 1999. 10.Sometime in mmid-late 1999 I expect a rogue terrorist group to unleash either 1) a stolen ex-Soviet nuclear WMD in an urban area (with Israel homelands most likely), 2) a virus against the web, or 3) a biological agent in an urban area. There's too much materiel and too many angry people in the world for this to be postponed indefinitely. It's time & odds. urbansurvival.com

To: bobby beara who wrote (35681)	12/26/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

Oil Prices are a serious problem for ME economies. Kuwait warns low oil prices mean its citizens have to make sacrifices Copyright © 1998 Nando Media Copyright © 1998 Reuters News Service KUWAIT (December 26, 1998 2:28 p.m. EST nandotimes.com) - The Kuwaiti government on Saturday called on its citizens to make sacrifices to make up for a sharp drop in oil revenues because of dropping oil prices, with little chance for improvement in the next three years. The country's Finance Minister Sheikh Ali al-Salem al-Sabah told a parliamentary session the current projected budget deficit to the end of June 1999 could rise by 200 million dinars ($660 million) above forecasts, while non-oil revenues could come in at around 350 million dinars. The Kuwaiti parliament in August approved the 1998/1999 (July-June) budget of 4.362 billion dinars, with a projected net deficit of 1.919 billion dinars and a gross deficit of 2.63 billion dinars. Oil revenue, calculated at $10 a barrel, was projected at 1.894 billion dinars and non-oil revenue at 550 million dinars. Sheikh Ali did not give exact figures on oil revenues but said income from crude sales was expected to reach around 1.8 billion dinars in the 1998/1999 fiscal year, while Kuwaiti crude would average around $8 a barrel. He warned that at such levels and with little sign of improvement, expenditure "could consume our (state) reserves over the next three years." Kuwait has two deficit figures because the state is obliged by law to deposit 10 percent of total revenue in a state fund managed by the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), although the government has asked parliament to drop this obligation in years of deficit. Kuwait's foreign portfolio is worth $50 billion. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah told parliament it was time for Kuwaitis, long used to a cradle-to-grave welfare state, "to sacrifice...because the situation is grave." Sheikh Ali called for switching to direct subsidies from the current system of indirect subsidies. He mentioned the electricity sector, subsidized by some 300 million dinars a year in state funds, as an example for a possible change. He suggested selling power to consumers at cost price and reimbursing citizens in cash to meet the difference in price. Such a move would hit Kuwait's expatriate community, which makes up around 65 percent of the 2.2 million population. Kuwait crudes closed this week at $9.24, $7.46 and $6.73 a barrel compared with an average of just under $15 a barrel in the 1997/1998 budget. Despite the gloomy picture painted by ministers on Saturday, economists expect ordered expenditure cuts to succeed in narrowing the growing budget deficit, with spending of slightly over three billion dinars by the end of the fiscal year. The government has promised to present parliament with a comprehensive economic reform program which could eventually lead to cutting the state's financial obligations. It has also asked parliament for the right to withdraw further from the state's reserves and borrow to cover the budget deficit.

To: bobby beara who wrote (35681)	12/27/1998 1:32:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

not to mention 55 since the low on Oct 8th carl

To: bobby beara who wrote (35681)	12/27/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bobby B - how about something like Prudent Bear Fund - early in New Year - timing not quite so exact and no need to worry about time premium on puts? E