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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6296)	12/26/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: Dennis V.	Respond to of 27311

Zeev, absolutely, a definition of hypothesis is "what if". I see difficulties in doing TA or FA for this stock. One, rumor driven stocks have a dynamic not amenable to TA. Look at takeover candidates for example-movements can be extreme and difficult to predict. FA is difficult for obvious reasons, but should be more sophisticated than a straight line analysis. Valence breached a strong, but very recent support level due to investor panic. I know of no fundamental signal at this point in time. Readings of recent filings are diverse because of the complexity and clumsy wordsmithing. Personally, I didn't sell the morning of "D-day" because of my perception of the statements. A little confusing, but not a negative on the second reading. I began to wonder if I was the one who was crazy as the afternoon wore on, but conviction settled in at the end of the day. As responses dribbled in from FRB, I felt the matter was settled in favor of holding. I see no reason to change this view, negative comments notwithstanding. Nevertheless, I share LWS's view that all commentary is welcome and potentially valuable. Moreover, since most postings are conjectural in nature, alternative views are more appropriate than forceful rebuttals. A closing comment on "rebuilding" a technical base. I support your view on this in the absence of news. So many people rely on graphs for investment decisions that a sort of circular rationale takes hold. TA becomes a predictor of fundamentals as it were instead of the reverse.