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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eleder2020 who wrote (19911)	12/26/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: George Dawson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29386

Ed, I think there is some advantage to shorting in a hurry and using your profit to immediately short more stock. This causes a true death spiral effect in that you are using your profits as leverage against the stock price and it allows you to create both a huge dilution effect as well as associated profit. What appears to have prevented this from happening is that there were literally no available shares to short outside of the conversion and the conversion was scheduled to proceed in an orderly manner. You could actually study this semi-scientifically by comparing Ancor to true death spiral stocks. My guess is you would see the failed stocks as being under more pressure at the outset with a larger float and/or an uncontained conversion process. It would make sense to me that a fund that is long would sell their position, since as professional investors they would know about how the financing deal would affect the stock price before those of us less familiar. As long as the current float is approaching the theoretical maximum number of shares post conversion - I agree that the timing of the sale is irrelevant. Do we have an official number for total shares in the float? NASDAQ shows a little over 19M. George D.

To: Eleder2020 who wrote (19911)	12/26/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Craig Stevenson	Respond to of 29386

Ed, I didn't mean to imply that the short covering is a major indicator of anything at this point in time, other than it should follow what George and Greg have predicted. (There should once again be a marked decrease in shares short.) This would be further evidence that the Reg D holders are playing the long side, if they are playing at all. <<IMHO the most important thing to discuss is the Ancor market cap in relation to their fundamentals and the FC market.Bottom line is there are now 25 million shares out there at $4 apiece.>> I agree, but now Ancor commands a $100 Million market cap, instead of only $25 million. There was someone on Yahoo who intimated that one of the OEM contracts could be worth $10 Million. My first thought was, "it better be worth AT LEAST $10 Million, and there better be more than one". The reason is that Ancor still needs to attain profitability at some point. They have the INRANGE revenue, but a five year obligation to go with it. According to Kerry's last figures (if memory serves), Ancor needs to be doing about $5 - $5.5 Million per QUARTER to break even. That's 2-3 $10 Million/year OEM contracts per year. Certainly doable, but it hasn't been done yet. <<Your point about Tailwind selling their long position in early January is a valid concern in light of the illiquidity history of Ancor and something that should be considered by anyone investing in Ancor.>> Thanks. For a while, I thought I was the only one tilting at windmills. <g> If TailWind (or anyone else) unwinds slowly, I don't think it will make much difference. ANCR has shown good support at $3.75, but nobody has been selling huge blocks for days on end either. Craig