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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (27429)	12/27/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: Leto	Respond to of 70976

Thanks for your thoughts. Leto

To: Big Bucks who wrote (27429)	12/27/1998 10:03:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, >>>"I agree with your opinion on CPU's as commodity products."<<< Some CPU's may be categorized as commodities, but not all. The low to mid clock speed x86's, which Intel, AMD, Cyrix/NSM, and to a degree, IDT and Rise can make, could be called that. However, Intel distinguishes themselves from the rest with products those pretenders can't make, and they keep moving up. Currently, the 400 and 450 MHz Pentium II's (AMD has 400 but most likely at poor yield), and Xeon have no competition, hence, are not commodities by definition. Next year, Intel comes with Katmai in February, which has 70 new instructions and no direct competitor and later chips like Cascades, Coppermine, Dixon and then Merced and the IA64 family. You could say that CPU chips could become a commodity if all CPU chip companies were created equal. They are definitely not because only Intel can afford to develop all the new products that keep them far in front. As far as the PC on a chip (PCOAC), Intel is developing one at their Israel facility. NSM is toast because they are betting the company on theirs. Intel's will win. AMD will continue to make it interesting as they have their design pretty well together and their process technology and manufacturing are "adequate" although nowhere near that of IBM or Intel. Conclusion is that CPU chips are not a commodity, at least across their whole spectrum, and I didn't get even into Sun Sparc or Power PC or IBM RISC chips. Tony

To: Big Bucks who wrote (27429)	12/27/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: davesd	Respond to of 70976

Hey Buck!!....I was just lurking around to catch the latest news on this industry...It still amazes me how this sector can move at a drop of a hat. I have my share of semi stocks....but I'm not counting my chickens yet....my expectations have been met and exceeded....However, I am expecting things to pull back from current levels...if they don't great!! I have talked to two CFO's in the semi industry...and pretty much got the feeling that this quarter may well be the bottom....but there was absolutely no indication that we are in for any significant upcycle. At best they expect booking to level off and increase a bit...but nothing like the short lived vertical 1997 upturn. I for one gave up on the "old world" PE fundamentals....they just don't apply anymore.... Some are predicting $100 is around the corner....that would make me very happy!! unfortunately sooner or later the fundamentals have to catch up the price....and at this point I do not see any possible fundamentals that would drive this stock to $100. Hey maybe.....if AMAT opens up an auction site on the web and the semi stuff becomes a secondary business...then I could see $300 this summer..... dave

To: Big Bucks who wrote (27429)	12/27/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: davesd	Respond to of 70976

Im sure everyone has read the following article.... semibiznews.com "In going from 0.25 to 0.18, over 90% of the tools for those two technologies essentially are the same," stated Peter Rickert, TI's platform development manager who is based in Dallas. "We have gotten to the point where we are asking the production fab to 'approve' any changes. We have an authorized equipment list that is agreed upon by the development team and the production facility," he explained. "This type of practice is becoming pretty common," he added, "especially when you consider the cost of this equipment." dave