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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon K. who wrote (7754)	12/27/1998 8:02:00 AM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

G'day all - hope y'all had a merry and safe holiday weekend, and make sure y'all rest enough for another round of festivities in the coming week. dear Jon, you concluded "Sorry, my writing is not so eloquent nor humble. [p]hmmm.... come to think of it, maybe I should get into currency future. Buy some euro and sell pound and greenback." Regardless, I certainly admire your putting the $ where the mouth is <g>. However, historical analysis [as most of your post seems to be] is a funny thing. As a majority of opinions, it is considered an art [as opposed to a science] by most universities. Indeed, the US has benefitted a lot by not having a major war in its continent. But I do not understand your notion of "wind"? Is there any substantiation via historical analysis and/or quantitative analysis. Also, why would private cos buy Euros? I mean, if these are multinationals, then they may been buying [hedging] foreign currencies [vs local currency] in countries they are doing biz. If by wind you mean the mass psychology [zeitgeist, if you will,] then things are quite inconclusive. It is true that Europe has been coming out of its recession with a new found gospel of "shareholder values" to boot, but it one is to look at trends, anecdotal evidence seems to suggest globalization. Companies like DamlierChrylser. While EXXON and MOBIL are talking of merger here in the US, which certainly will affect other integrated, MOBIL is having joint venture with BP [?] in Australia. Finally [but certainly not the last point,] by the time EU is fully integrated by 2002, who knows what may happen to ASEAN and NAFTA etc. best, Bosco

To: Jon K. who wrote (7754)	12/27/1998 10:22:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Jon, I have no additional arguments on top of those I mentioned before to back my point of view that the EURO will cause a calamity in Europe short term. I will add only that changing the "socialistic attitude" in Europe will bring with it "Strike and Strife". Any sudden change like that will be problematic. Think only of the massive asset reallocation required to move from national to pan European economies. Look at Germany, it is almost ten years since "Unification" and they still have not straighten out that problem. Take this on a European scale and you will get economic contraction. As for Japan, the problem is a little different, the liquidity is there, but is locked in by lack of confidence that the economy will revive. Once this confidence comes back, the liquidity will flow (yes, some of it into the US bond market, thus my view that later next year the dollar will strengthen again), but a lot will go into consumption and revival of their moribund economy, IMHO. I think that in both cases people forget to take into account mass psychology impacts on the respective economies. Zeev