Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Enigma who wrote (24959)	12/27/1998 2:52:00 PM
From: teevee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116796

Hi enigma, Perhaps this will help you understand: Message 6985499 Its seems pretty straight forward to me. Goldbugs are keeping the price artificially high. regards, teevee

To: Enigma who wrote (24959)	12/27/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116796

enigma, your mind is closed to the thoughts that you could be, have been, and will be again; wrong. You chose the direction you choose for the POG based on WHAT? "*The Efficient Market Hypothesis* is based on the assumption that there are a large number of rational, profit seeking investors in the marketplace who react quickly to the release of new information. As new information about a stock appears, investors reassess the intrinsic value of stock and adjust the price accordingly." CSC 1998 The same can be applied to commodities even more so, as many suggest they are a holder of value. If the market is rational, and efficient, then a trend is created by those profit seeking individuals who are either in the beginning of reaction, or in the late stages of reaction to the news. So with that in mind TA of trends can be set up that correlate commodities. In fact *The Efficient Market Hypothesis* validates that TA must be accurate over any range where no NEW news has occurred, otherwise the markets become discontinous, and irrational. So with this in mind, one should beable to equate & differentiate between commodities or even financial instruments. So what has the CRB index suggesting: The commodity demands are either in a over supplied, or lacking demand. From this data you can not determine which, but only that prices are falling, and should continue as the NEWS out for the economy seems to be of a negative growth nature. barchart.com\/\/mriwcr.gif So what about the XOI index: The XOI index is the broadest reflection of Oil prices, and Oil companies future net worth. With the Iraq war & a booming US economy, the XOI is still in a deteriorating trend. Lower OIL prices leads to lower GOLD prices, as FUEL is the largest cost in the production of Gold. Not the staking of property, drilling, or locating. decisionpoint.com So what about the US DOLLAR: This is the one majour, most important, effect on the price of GOLD, and thus the Gold producers equity price. We can look at the US dollar Via the US Dollar index. What we need to take into consideration is the news that moves the index, and that news is what may make the trend for the US dollar rise of fall in the coming weeks. Consider this: Britian is in a full recession as we speak, their own economics are suggesting a lot more rate cuts to come in the following months. It's believed that they have held off as to NOT cause undue pressure onto the Euro before it's creation. Germany is nearing a total meltdown, as riots are on the upswing as un-employment leads it. USA residents are passive compared to the German unemployed. Japan, well enough said about their Cabals. So with each of these countries about to lower rates {Japan doing whatever, they don't know} then we can expect a selling of the German mark {or Euro after Jan 4, or at least unstable} and a selling of the British Pound. This will ADD to the strength of the US dollar, and is already being priced in. The US dollar index reflects this every since the USA FED surprised rate cut. decisionpoint.com And as the US dollar increase the POG will drop. But what about those Currencies? If Euro, and Britain suspect further rate cuts, than the Bankers / traders will speculate that holding gold before the rate cuts, and transferring back to the currency after the rate cut may be an option. {as currency futures have already priced this in} So in essence there is a net buying of gold before the rates lowering. And therefore a reason as why the trend of GOLD is against that for the CRB index. BUT all that glitters is not GOLD: The XAU index & the TSE G&S Index don't neccesarily reflect the the bias of banker to hold one commodity only as a hedge against currency. As the same news that is used to hedge against currencies, is also use to short the producers of the commodity. And thus you end up with the XAU trading within tighter ratios then before. And even the XAU is pricing in a much lower price of Gold then what is presently being reflected. decisionpoint.com Producers started their unwinding positions in late Aug 1998. When the XAU and POG was in a free fall. It's no surprise to me that it's a fact that buying the spot price of Gold, and unwinding their forwards would create a support to the POG. Secondary support from lower rates cuts by the FED's has given the producers the ability to add back onto their forwards. Why would they not stop forward selling?: Because they know, as other do, that GOLD is making a run down to $250-$270 range again. Any time anyone buys a stock in the market place it adds to the demand {FACT}, but selling to a speculator the rights doesn't mean that you add to the supply {as in most cases the stock is held against the position, or is needed to buy back in near expiration} So forward selling adds to demand, but doesn't take away. I'm neither prejudice or biased, I'm just following {or leading} the trend. But if you care to be a laggard, that's your choice. I'm hear to give those who might not be as rich as you are {and can't hold a equity till death due you part} a opinion that is not formulated from the stand point that GOLD must go up... If you care to point out reason as to why gold should go up, due so. This is a discussion thread. NOT A CHEERING SECTION. Public enough for you?

To: Enigma who wrote (24959)	12/27/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 116796

I think you misunderstand Hutch. He is right. It is the gold buyer who is manipulating. That is a fact. Why sell cheap? You want to buy cheap. Congnite filias. Of course I admit that you are buying paper with gold too. Same thing. The US has done that before. A bad bargain born out of desperation. The US is a net gold buyer at 290 or so, last two years through dummy companies set up around the world. The aim is to control gold reserves and currency. The British Banks and the COMEX co-operate and trade a scant 100 kilos a day to "FIX" the price. Hong Kong has no choice but to follow suit. It's a fix alright. If I had bullion I would not sell a gram to the thieves. EC<:-}