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To: PaulM who wrote (24981)	12/28/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Paul, I read Armstrong's analysis through fiendbear.com Here's a direct link to that article. pei-intl.com I think there is persuasive case that this tax structure will cause significant unrest in European markets. That may prove to be a benefit for US markets and help to keep the balloon inflated just a bit longer. What I've been pondering is that the major central bankers of the world really need to apply continuing pressure upon gold so as not to permit any rise in the metal's price undermine their monetary policies. I see increasing tensions between finding "safe harbors" in fiat currencies, or in gold. Given that, minus a major unforseen systemic shock (like LTCM), central bankers apparently retain considerable ability to manipulate gold prices through settling short sales on gold for cash. In fact, I would suggest that for the sake of the current global financial system, they will do everything possible to prevent gold from regaining value as a "currency". And for this reason I have been hesitant to buy into gold at this time. I believe that with turmoil surrounding the EMU, and their desire create an alternative reserve currency to the dollar, there may be a concerted effort to further undermine gold prices. What are your opinions? Regards, Ron

To: PaulM who wrote (24981)	12/28/1998 9:50:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Euro countdown frenzy While others party, the City gets ready for the euro dawn Thursday afternoon, 31 December 1998, just after 1400 GMT. All systems are "go" for Europe's biggest exercise in number crunching. While most Europeans get ready for a weekend of serious partying, the continent's bankers and finance managers have just 60 hours to get ready for the launch of the new single currency, the euro. If they fail, the new year will begin with economic mayhem. If they succeed, they have set in motion one of the most ambitious economic projects this century, Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The final countdown to monetary union starts in Brussels on Thursday at 1030 GMT. The central banks of countries joining EMU will suggest the official euro conversion rates. Then the European Commission will confirm the figures, the EU's finance ministers will approve them and at approximately 1400 GMT - 1500 Central European Time - they will be published officially, in print and on the Internet at europa.eu.int. Then the real work begins. Three days Across Europe central bankers, share brokers, investment fund managers, commercial bankers, currency dealers and bond traders will swing into action and convert billions of francs, guilders, Deutschmarks, schillings and assets in other currencies into euros. They have just over three days to do the job. When the financial markets in Asia open again on Monday morning, 4 January 1999, everything has to be ready. Whoever deals with the eurozone - in shares, currencies or goods - needs to handle the euro, and banks and markets must be prepared to do so. The tricky bit is that they all depend on each other. If a bank, a fund manager or a trader gets it wrong, their business partners and especially their customers and investors will suffer. Roger Bates of Deutsche Bank describes it as "probably the biggest test to the financial community in current times". He predicts that "most banks and institutions - because of the amount of work that's got to be done and the short time they've got to do it - will be working 24 hour shifts." Financial centres have geared up just for that. Some banks have booked hotel rooms for the legions of staff doing the conversion work over the New Year weekend. Catering has been organised and in the City of London, which normally is dead over the weekend, some restaurants and sandwich bars are opening specially to provide for the euro teams. Getting ready The financial sector has had a lot of time to get ready for this. Some banks began their preparations more than 18 months ago. Adjusting the computer systems was the greatest problem. All financial and accounting software had to be adapted to cope with the new currency, and special programmes had to be written to help with the change over. At very small finance houses simple calculators may have to do the job. Big companies like Mercury Asset Management, for example, will need more sophisticated instruments as they have to recalculate around $170bn worth of assets. The UK is not in the first wave of countries joining monetary union, but London is the continent's financial centre and has to get ready too. More than half of Europe's investment funds are managed in the City and investments worth more than $600bn are at stake. For a Europe-wide picture add the conversion of hundreds of billions euros worth of currency transactions to the total government debt of the whole 11-country Euroland. And there is more. Many banks in the eurozone plan to transfer their own business into euros and therefore have to recalculate their books and all historical data in their ledgers. Rehearsing E-day To cope with the task all parties involved have staged numerous rehearsals. Some companies have done three or more complete real-time trial runs to test whether their conversion teams can do the job in the short time available. If the banks and brokers are to believed, all has gone well. They say that the new software is working. Nonetheless, experts predict that there will be hiccups on E-day when the euro is launched. Hundreds of different accounting systems used by numerous banks and financial markets will have to talk 'euros' to each other, and any misunderstanding will be like a stone thrown into a lake, sending ripples across the water. Staff training is another problem. There has been plenty of it, but only the real-life experience will show whether all dealers properly understand the conversion rules. Anyway, brokers and analysts readily admit that it will take some time before they get used to the new euro prices. They know only one thing for certain: The euro will change their lives forever. news.bbc.co.uk

To: PaulM who wrote (24981)	12/28/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Paul, Anyone who lived or visited Eoroland for considerable period of time would attest that this is NOT a US of America...I am not talking about long hours and total commitment of businesses/people to make money and work ethics, not even dramatic differences in Unions strength...but mobility of work force ..People do not move from town to town or from State to State (unless on vacation) Now you tell German from Bavaria that he has to drop everything (family ties) and move to East Germany he may quit, but if you tell him that he now is moving to Spain for two years, he may go on strike...It is no way European would adopt American way of life any time soon....Euro or no Euro...

To: PaulM who wrote (24981)	12/29/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Metals edge higher, oil gains Also: Hogs, bellies lower ahead of key report By Cecily Fraser, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 5:20 PM ET Dec 29, 1998 Agriculture Outlook NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Precious and base metals rocketed Tuesday as a softer U.S. dollar and supply jitters brought the market into positive territory. Palladium helped to lead the gains as a lack of Russian selling buoyed the metal. The market is concerned about the possibility of Russian supply disruptions in the first quarter of 1999. Russia, the No. 1 producer of palladium, has delayed shipments in previous years. On the Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, March palladium rose $6.45 to $325.65 an ounce Palladium worries also helped January platinum to rise $9.80 to $357.50 an ounce. March copper rose almost 2 percent, as fund short covering boosted the industrial metal 1.10 cents to 67.70 cents a pound. Of additional support, the U.S. dollar was about 0.5 percent weaker against the Japanese yen. That makes dollar-denominated metals more affordable for overseas buyers. In other metals highlights: March silver rose 1.00 cents to $5.035 an ounce. February gold fell a slight 70 cents to $287.10 an ounce. Oil prices gain Oil prices inched higher as players kept an eye on rising tensions between the U.S. and Iraq. In the latest developments, Iraq said it will fly warplanes into the "no-fly" zone monitored by U.S. forces. Meanwhile, oil continues to flow in the midst of recent skirmishes. February crude oil rose 26 cents to $11.72 a barrel. Of additional news, the American Petroleum Institute is set to release its weekly inventory report after Tuesday's close. Most players are hoping the recent blasts of cool weather will have increased the need for heating oil. Greater demand for petroleum products will help lift the market away from 12-year lows. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February heating oil rose 0.66 cents to 33.97 cents a gallon. February unleaded gasoline rose 0.84 cents to 36.52 cents a gallon. Hogs, bellies await USDA report Lean hog and pork belly prices headed south as the market evened up positions and awaited the USDA Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release after the close. Traders are expecting to see weaker numbers of hogs kept for breeding in the quarterly report. This comes as producers have been forced to sell more animals as lower prices make it unprofitable to speed up production. Among some other data the USDA report will include: the total number of hogs and pigs, as well as the number of hogs kept for marketing. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, February lean hogs fell 0.100 cents to 32.300 cents a pound and February pork bellies fell 0.925 cents to 44.175 cents a pound. The Bridge/Commodity Research Bureau Index, a broad-based measure of commodities' futures markets, rose 0.7 percent to 190.94 due to strength in metals and crude oil. Energies February natural gas fell 0.8 cents to $1.781 per BTU. Livestock February live cattle fell 0.400 cents to 60.600 cents a pound. March feeder cattle fell 0.725 cents to 68.450 cents a pound. Grains/Foods/Fiber January frozen orange juice fell 0.50 cents to $1.0620 a pound. March cocoa fell $1 to $1,394 a ton. March cotton rose 0.37 cents to 60.65 cents a pound. March sugar rose 0.25 cents at 7.83 cents a pound. March wheat fell 0.6 cents to $2.816 per contract. March corn fell 0.4 cents to $2.186 per contract. January soybeans rose 0.4 cents to $5.436 per contract. cbs.marketwatch.com