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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41095)	12/28/1998 4:08:00 AM
From: eabDad	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeeter and all: Thanks for being the straightman in my marathon here. Semi equips ... here are the feelings I had while reading the last month. (1) The semi equips were being lumped into a PC issue - part correctly but part not so. Stay tuned, I have a fundamental valuation analysis I have done in two coming posts. (2) NVLS was being unfairly singled out in my mind. This was in part a feeling based on the fact that I know that NVLS is the best finacially run company in the sector, and that other stocks could be pointed to as being better fundamental short plays. (3) I have stated in this thread before that the PRICE of semi equipment stocks responds directly to ORDER rates only. Book-to-bill is a meaningless ratio. Compare the booking levels of November to September and you will see a 40+% rise. Granted this is from a low base. Your point of the absolute sales level of the industry being well below 1995, or even 1997, is well taken. However, the valuation model I will present is a price to sales ratio and will take this into account. I was surprised at the outcome of some issues myself, and I think they will surprise you. For the record (and I am not a shrill), I own the stocks of NVLS (since 33), MTSN, TER, and KLIC, and options in KLIC. Ok, call me crazy. I will be out of NVLS by mid-January and will reevaluate KLIC the last week of January. TER and MTSN are holdings for me until at least April, for different reasons. Z

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41095)	12/28/1998 5:21:00 AM
From: eabDad	Respond to of 132070

Skeeter: Just using your straightman services one more time on MU. I am long a very small 1/4 position, and covered a 1/2 position with a Jan covered call which will net a shade over $39. I'll let the stock go, and am very close to writing an April very deep covered call on my 1/4 position (if possible I'm trying to save the buy date for long term capital gains on a $21 basis). I do not think this will get below the high 20s in 1999. Fundamentals are shaping up for a DRAM pinch in 18-30 months. Dan Niles' target of $200 seems rich to me, and is a fluff target, but this is normal for his analysis. However, my target with the DRAM pinch raising prices in 2000 will be near $160 by later in 2001. Hey, I can dream, can't I?? Z

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41095)	12/28/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeets: On CDWC: I was within a hair of going long on this company way back around $40, and if it would've stayed below $40 for long enough for me to get up my nerve I would've bought. I can't recall what I thought the co was worth at the time, but I was surprised when it hit $75, and am amazed that it made it to $90. If you look at their mix of sales, CDWC is heavily dependent on laptops. Desktops are a considerably smaller portion of their business, but I remember thinking at the time that if laptop prices come under as much pricing pressure as the desktops - watch out! Your mentioned that Toshiba drops prices 14% may be the talisman to usher in that era? Shane